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Mitchell the overwhelming favourite to take Brownlow Medal home

Mon, Sep 24, 11:14am by Staff Writer

The Brownlow Medal is awarded to the player adjudged best and fairest across the competition’s 23 home and away rounds.

The award has a rich history, with its most recent winner being 2017 Richmond player Dustin Martin.

Hawthorn’s Tom Mitchell is the overwhelmingly favourite to claim his first Brownlow Medal on Monday night and has seen tremendous support in the market.

Mitchell opened the season as a $14 Brownlow chance, but after a 54-disposal performance in the opening round of the season against Collingwood, shortened to $9.

The former Swan has been a ball magnet for the Hawks, who finished the season in fourth spot on the ladder.

Mitchell had 11 games of 40 or more disposals and two of 50 or more disposals this season.

He has shortened to $1.62 in the market and on Brownlow morning is priced at $1.53.

Several larger bets have been placed on Mitchell, most notably a bet of $5000 at $9 after round one this season.

Martin and Gawn the most likely to topple Mitchell

Last year’s winner Dustin Martin is likely to feature in the voting once again, given Richmond’s tremendous home and away season.

Martin finished the season averaging more than 25 disposals per game and kicked 31 goals.

He is ranked first in the AFL for total inside 50s and 5th in goal assists. Martin’s attacking prowess is highlighted by the fact that he tops the competition in score involvements and score involvements per game.

He is priced at $9 to win the Brownlow this season.

Melbourne ruckman Max Gawn has had a career best year and earned All Australia honours.

He has been the best ruckman in the competition this season, with the 208cm big man leading the AFL in hitouts with nearly 45 per game.

He has been one of the competition’s best contested marks, ranking third this season. He has kicked 13 goals and averages nearly 16 touches per game.

Gawn is also priced at $9 to win the Brownlow.

Cripps is a top three chance

A number of players in the market are hoping for their first Brownlow Medal, with Patrick Cripps ($16) and Brodie Grundy ($18) the next best in the market.

There is value for Cripps to finish in the top three at $2.25, with the Carlton midfielder having a career best season in 2018.

It was a dour season for the Blues, but Cripps was a rare shining light for them, averaging nearly 30 touches per game.

He ranked fifth in the AFL for total disposals and third in centre clearances.

His skill in contested ball was also a highlight, ranked third in the AFL.

A Tom Mitchell/Patrick Cripps exacta is paying $6 and looks to be overs considering the price on Cripps to finish in the top three.

Brownlow Medal Odds

Tom Mitchell $1.53

Dustin Martin $9

Max Gawn $9

Patrick Cripps $16

Brodie Grundy $18

Clayton Oliver $21

Dayne Beams $21

Jackson Macrae $21

Top 3 Finish

Tom Mitchell $1.10

Dustin Martin $2.25

Patrick Cripps $2.25

Max Gawn $2.50

Brodie Grundy $4

Dayne Beams $5

*See full betting market here


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