Thu, Mar 22, 12:40pm by Staff Writer
The NBL best-of-five Grand Final series between Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers is locked at a game apiece after both sides took care of business at home.
United used a strong second half to beat the 36ers in game one last Friday night 107-96.
The 36ers turned the table in game two, using a dominant first half, where they led by 16 points at half-time, to record a 110-95 victory.
Game three takes place in Melbourne on Friday night, with United heavy favourites at $1.40.
The 36ers start as $2.96 outsiders and will be without forward Josh Childress who misses with a shoulder injury.
The loss of Childress will mean that the 36ers will not only be down a scorer, but also a key player in their rebounding department.
Adelaide having to adjust mid-series is going to be an enormous challenge, as is defying their recent poor record against Melbourne in consecutive matches.
United have won 13 of their past 16 games as home favourites, and were $1.48 to beat the 36ers in game one last Friday night.
The 36ers have been an above average team as a road underdog, winning seven of their past 13 matches, but only four of 14 against United.
United start this game as 5.5-point favourites and with no injury concerns to speak of.
Taking Melbourne United in the Big Win Little Win 11+ market at $2.60 looks the best play in this match, given the big scores and margins we have seen to date in this series.
The player performance props are where we are seeing some value, particularly where the Adelaide 36ers are concerned given the loss of Childress.
Mitch Creek to score over 18.5 points at $1.83 looks favourably priced for punters. With Creek expected to shoulder more scoring responsibility in this match and averaging nearly 16 points per game this series, seeing him sail over the 20 point mark would be unsurprising.
Majok Deng is another player set for big minutes in Childress’ absence and he is a very enticing $2.70 to score 15+ points at Sportsbet, after leading all scorers in game two with 18 points.
The total match points market has been dominated by the over and we expect that to continue in game three, with the mark set at 190.5 points at $1.90.
Game four is set to take place in Adelaide in Adelaide on Sunday afternoon, with the winner of game three a chance to claim the 2017-18 NBL crown.
Best bet- Melbourne United Big Win Little Win 11+ at $2.70
Best bet- Mitch Creek over 18.5 points at $1.83
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