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NBL Grand Final Game 5: Preview and Best Bets

Thu, Mar 29, 10:37am by Staff Writer

The 2017-18 NBL Championship will be decided on Saturday night at Hisense Arena in Melbourne when Melbourne United host the Adelaide 36ers in game 5 of the Grand Final series.

The home side has won each of the previous four matches in the series, so it is no surprise to see United installed as firm $1.48 favourites at Sportsbet to win the match.

Adelaide are $2.66 outsiders but are good value at the handicap, where they are being given a 5.5-point start.

The series has been high scoring throughout, with the offence of both teams blistering at times.

With an over/under set at 189.5, if the game isn’t close down the stretch, the over could be aided through intentional fouling to stop the clock, so be wary of that if you’re interested in backing the number there.

Both teams are expected to announce the same starting lineups that we have seen for much of the series, with Josh Childress the only omission after his shoulder injury earlier in the series ruled him out for the remainder of the season.

The home team has covered the 1.5-point start in three of the four matches so far this series, so for punters looking for an early match bet, taking Melbourne United -1.5 at $1.82 is the way to go.

The Player Performance Props are where we can usually find some value and Mitch Creek scoring 20+ points paying $2 is one example.

Creek has been Adelaide’s best performing player all series and will need to fill it up on Saturday night to give the 36ers a chance.

The Big Win Little Win margin market is another which always proves popular and if you fancy Adelaide, this would be another wise way to back the 36ers.

Adelaide to win 1-10 is paying $4.33 and the unlikely blowout of 11+ is paying $6.50.

Melbourne United are favoured to win by 1-10 at $2.70, although winning by 11+ at $2.88 closely follows.

Adelaide have won seven of their past 14 road games, but have yet to defeat United in this series in Melbourne.

This title run has been building for some time for Melbourne United and looked in jeopardy during the first part of the season where the team simply couldn’t gel.

In front of a raucous Melbourne crowd, it is hard to see how Adelaide stop Casper Ware, Chris Goulding and Casey Prather, something which they have struggled to do simultaneously all series.

If by some miracle they can, they will win the game.

We are happy to continue to side with the trends and that is for a Melbourne United win.

The Big Win Little Win 1-10 market provides better value than the head-to-head and we aren’t sold on the high line for this series decider.

Suggested Bet: Melbourne United Big Win Little Win 1-10 at $2.70

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