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NBL Grand Final Update: Melbourne favoured in decider

Tue, Mar 27, 3:12pm by Staff Writer

After four gripping matches, Melbourne United and the Adelaide 36ers are locked at 2-all in their best-of-five Grand Final series, with Saturday night’s series decider set to crown a new NBL champion.

United are $1.42 favourites to win game five at Sportsbet, with Adelaide $2.89 outsiders.

Both teams have been priced similarly for matches in Melbourne throughout the series, as the home side has performed far better than the away team in all four matches.

The opening handicap is set at 5.5 points, with the total points tally set at over/under 189.5.

Before the series began, United were $1.57 favourites to win the title, with Adelaide $2.42 outsiders.

Both of Melbourne’s home games in game one and three have been heated affairs, which served to fire up the 36ers on their return trip to Adelaide.

Last Sunday, Adelaide almost let slip a 24-point lead, as a late United barrage cut a once unassailable lead to just four points, before the 36ers steadied for the 90-81 victory.

Casper Ware is the favourite to win the series MVP award at $3.20, with Mitch Creek and Casey Prather next best priced at $6.

36ers forward Daniel Johnson was superb in game four and if the 36ers happen to win game five, he could be good value to take out MVP honours at $6.50.

Chris Goulding at $7.50 rounds out the single-digit MVP candidates, with Shannon Shorter of the 36ers priced at $21.

The 36ers had a chance to send game three into overtime on Friday night with a last-second three point attempt which was off the mark, making the Tri Bet market an intriguing one for this match.

Either team to win by under 5.5 points is paying $2.63, and given what is on the line in this contest and the nerves, which are sure to be present down the stretch, this market should be considered.

Melbourne United to win by 1-10 points in the Big Win Little Win market is the best supported of the four options at $2.70, with United 11+ at $2.88.

If you fancy Adelaide to win the match, taking them 1-10 at $4.33 offers extra value, as it would be hard to imagine the 36ers winning by 11+ at $6.50.

The home team has covered the 1.5-point handicap on offer in the first-quarter in three of the four matches so far this series, with game one seeing only a one point differential at quarter time.

If trends continue, backing United at -1.5-points at $1.82 would be profitable.

The Grand Final series has been immense so far and with Saturday’s final match sure to produce controversy and memorable moments, it is hard to pick a winner either way.

United have been unstoppable at home since the turn of the New Year and it is hard to bet against them with home support.

NBL Grand Final Markets – Sportsbet

Melbourne $1.42 Adelaide $2.89

Handicap: -5.5 points Melbourne $1.94

Total points: over/under 189.5 $1.90

Big Win Little Win

Melbourne 1-10 $2.70

Melbourne 11+ $2.88

Adelaide 1-10 $4.33

Adelaide 11+ $6.50


Casper Ware $3.20

Mitch Creek $6

Casey Prather $6

Daniel Johnson $6.50

Chris Goulding $7.50

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