Mon, May 26, 3:34pm by Rob Sheeley
Match: Cronulla Sharks vs. South Sydney Rabbitohs – NRL Round 11
When/Where: 7:00pm, Monday May 26 at Remondis Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com
A severely-depleted Sharks outfit are at home on Monday night against one of the premiership favourites, the South Sydney Rabbitohs.
Head-to-head betting appears to be providing little value with the Rabbitohs backed off the map at $1.28.
The Sharks, who are already sitting in last place and desperately looking for a win, have been hit hard with the loss of key players for State of Origin duties, which just adds to their current injury woes.
They will be missing three of their stars in Paul Gallen, Luke Lewis and Todd Carney, as well as Beau Ryan and Anthony Tupou.
The Rabbitohs do lose three players themselves, but look much more adept to cover the positions, a classic example would be the return of try-scoring record-breaker Nathan Merritt to cover for the loss of Greg Inglis.
The market that we will look at for this game is the first scoring play. AustralianGambling has gone back through the records and results to see which trends appear and how we can make some money on this match.
Sharks Try – $2.60
Sharks Penalty Goal – $15
Sharks Field Goal – $501
Rabbitohs Try – $1.62
Rabbitohs Penalty Goal – $15
Rabbitohs Field Goal – $501
The Sharks – It has been a long season for the Cronulla outfit so far with just two wins next to their name. Scoring at all has been a problem, let alone scoring first.
The Sharks have only managed to register the first points of the match on three occasions in 2014. Two of those have been a try and the other a penalty goal. Based on those results, as well as the results of their opposition, they look completely avoidable in the betting here.
The Rabbitohs – The Rabbitohs not only have a terrific propensity to score first, but there is also another little hidden gem in the results that could land us some nice profit.
The South Sydney team have scored the first points in six of their ten games this season. What stands out is that only three of those occasions have been tries, the other three penalty goals.
Granted that they may have little opposition here and the penalty goal early may not be a considered option, but they are playing the Sharks at home who may provide some stiff defensive efforts early in the match.
More to the point, the prices allow us to back both and still collect if we distribute our investments well.
The suggested bet is to cover both the Rabbitohs try and Rabbitohs penalty goals options.
Using the example of $100 the way to spread the bet is 90/10.
$90 on Rabbitohs try @ $1.62 to return $144 @ Sportsbet.com.au
$10 on Rabbitohs penaly goal @ $15 to return $150
Either result will see our return on investment between 44% and 50%.
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