Thu, May 9, 7:23pm by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Port Adelaide Power vs Richmond Tigers – AFL Round 7
When/Where: 1:45pm Saturday, 11 May 2013 at AAMI Stadium
AG Recommended AFL Bookie: www.Bet365.com
David Koch would be happy with Port’s recent form and the Chairman will be hoping his team can give the passionate Port fans another victory. They take on the Tigers who started the 2013 season well but have now suffered a lapse in form.
Port are sitting nicely in 3rd spot on the ladder whilst Richmond have slipped to 9th. Port are outside chances to win the Premiership at $51.00 whilst Richmond are $34.00 chances with Bet365.com.
Stats can tell an interesting story. Here are the key ones for this match:
For the season, Port have won 5 and lost 1. Richmond are finely balanced, winning 3 and losing 3.
In Round 4 against the Suns, Port were dominant with their disposals and tackles. Whilst they lost the first quarter, they steamed through the second quarter scoring 9 goals. They slowed down in the last two quarters scoring only 4 goals, but it was enough for a comfortable 38 point victory. Port’s defence was tireless and when they did have the ball they spread it quickly. The coach admitted that his side “ran out of energy a bit” in the final quarter but they still managed to push through for the win.
In contrast to Port’s strong defence, Richmond put on a poor tackling performance in their Round 4 match against Collingwood. Although Richmond started well, their poor tackling rate came to the fore in the 3rd quarter when they only made 4 tackles.
Round 5 against West Coast, Port displayed what is becoming their customary slow start. They only scored 2 goals before half time. They finished off the final two quarters with 10 goals. The win showed that Port refuse to give up when the game gets going and again showed that when they start running with the ball, they are hard to contain. Richmond also showed plenty of grit in their Round 5 match against Fremantle, losing in an arm wrestle by 1 point.
Port lost their last match against North Melbourne by a narrow 10 point margin. Port again had a poor first quarter where they were outscored by 7 goals to 1 and then had to play catch up. Port ran out of time to snatch the win, but their strong finish was noted, with many stating that if the match went 5 minutes longer, Port would have won. Richmond were defeated by 44 points by an undefeated Geelong side. They again began well and were making more tackles. However, their composure faded in the third quarter and they gave away a succession of frees and 50m penalties.
For Port Adelaide, Kane Cornes (midfielder), Travis Boak (midfielder) and Alipate Carlile (back) will be the key players. Cornes has been ever consistent this season and is a great linkage player. He has the ability to push forward and score. Boak is leading the clubs average contested possessions and Carlile will be given the important job of marking key Richmond forward Jack Riewoldt. Riewoldt put in a poor performance against Fremantle in Round 5, although some blamed this on Richmond’s midfield. Brett Deledio (midfield) performed well for Richmond in their opening rounds but has been criticised for his performances in recent times. He was tagged heavily in the game against the Cats and his influence on the game was limited. No doubt, Port have taken note of this and their strong back line will respond appropriately.
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Port’s opening quarter performances are of concern. They were off to a sluggish start against the Kangaroos and in total this season they have lost 4 of their 6 opening quarters. Richmond have not lost an opening quarter this season and have scored 22 first quarter goals. Port have kicked only 17 in contrast.
Richmond have been ranked highly for their centre clearances as opposed to Port. However, Richmond’s key ruck pair (Ivan Maric and Tyrone Vickery) are under an injury cloud and it appears highly doubtful they will play. If they do not play, then the centre clearances for the Richmond side may not have the success of earlier matches.
This year, Port Adelaide’s defence has been terrific. As shown by the statistics, they have conceded the second fewest points of all teams this season. Richmond have leaked more points and their tackling has been poor. When Richmond opened the season with a three match winning streak, they were performing consistently across the board with positives in contested footy, efficiency of ball use and tackles. As has already been stated, their tackle rate has dropped dismally and this has been reflected in their losses.
And the winner is…
My mum will not be pleased (especially given its Mothers Day this weekend!), but I am tipping against her beloved Tigers in this match. I think Port Adelaide’s strong defence will restrict Richmond’s ability to score and their ‘never say die’ attitude will keep them ahead throughout the match. Port are also ranked in the top four for scoring points and Richmond’s defence has not been great so Port should get the advantage.
It seems that those at Bet365 also agree. They have Port Adelaide at odds of $1.64 to win, while Richmond are at $2.25.
Despite a draw last year, the odds of a draw happening again are at $67.
A close match is being predicted with the line betting giving Richmond an 8.5 point start. The odds of Port Adelaide winning at 1-39 are $2.30 and Richmond at $2.90. A score blowout seems off the cards with the Power at $4.50 to win by more than 40 points whilst Richmond are at $8.50.
I am going for some value here and suggesting a 1/2 unit bet on Port Adelaide at $4.50 to win by more than 40. The line bet of $1.92 also offers some value as Port should win by more than 9.
This match will be live streaming on Bet365, so I’ll be live betting as well. Live (aka in-play) betting can be tricky, and foolish if you aren’t familiar. It can also give sharp punters some serious value…and this usually takes some experience. We recommend that new punters take it slow, making small wagers until you understand what you’re doing.
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