Thu, May 23, 9:41pm by Clarinda Campbell
Match: Port Adelaide Power vs Geelong Cats
When/Where: 1:15pm Saturday 25 May 2013 at AAMI Stadium
Where to Bet on AFL: www.IASbet.com
It appears after last week’s loss that the Port Adelaide bubble may have burst. They won their first 5 of the season but have now faltered to lose their last three. This has led to a descent down the ladder. They are now in 6th spot after being in the top 4. The Cats have given up top spot to move to 2nd after their surprise loss to Collingwood. The bookies are happy to lay Port Adelaide in the premiership betting, they are currently at $251. The Cats are at $3.75.
Last round, Geelong looked like enhancing their status as the competition’s comeback kings after they overturned a 28-point first-half deficit to lead by 13 points at three-quarter time. For Geelong, Stokes (31) and Joel Corey (30) saw a lot of the ball, Tom Hawkins booted four majors, Harry Taylor blanketed Quinten Lynch, Tom Lonergan did a good job on Travis Cloke, while Andrew Mackie (28) and Corey Enright (24) were also effective.
Known for their fast finishes, Port shrunk a three-quarter time deficit of 33 points down to 20 when Jarrad Redden kicked a goal seven minutes into the final term but Carlton grabbed the momentum and won by 18. Making matters worse for Port Adelaide, former skipper Dom Cassisi appeared to injure his hamstring in the fourth quarter.
For Port, Andrew Moore finished with three majors as Kane Cornes had the most amount of possessions for his side with 21 as the Power struggled to find winners on the day. From the outset it was clear Port’s skills were going to be an issue on Sunday afternoon as the Blues created plenty of pressure and forced numerous turnovers, allowing the Blues to score. The Power struggled to move the ball out of defence.
They will be punished again this week against a superior Cats side if they make the same mistakes. It is interesting to note that Port are resting their young forward Jack Neade this week. It comes after it was noted in Round 7 that some of the Port youngsters were starting to look tired.
Port Adelaide are expected to rely on defensive pressure as their key in dealing with the Cats for four quarters. Power midfielder Andrew Moore stated “We’ve been big on that defensive pressure since round one. If we get that right, we can match it with any team. If we bring massive heat on and around the ball, we will match it with them”. The challenge for Port is to keep its spot in the top 8. Their poor starts continue to trouble them and the club recognises this as an issue they need to work on.
Geelong will be without midfielder Paul Chapman as he is continuing to struggle with a hamstring concern. Forward Billie Smedts has also been ruled out with a foot injury suffered in the loss to Collingwood. Steve Johnson, who was a late withdrawal against the Pies, is expected to line up against Port Adelaide. Exciting youngster George Burbury will be making his senior debut, after excelling in performances in Geelong’s VFL side.
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Statistics for Port Adelaide vs Geelong
• Both sides have trailed at quarter time in 6 of their 8 matches. On the other hand both have finished strongly, winning six of their eight second halves.
• The Cats have won 11 of their last 18 interstate games.
• Neither side has enjoyed much success clearing the ball from stoppages this year. The Power are ranked 14th for clearances, while the Cats are last.
• The sides have met 24 times. Port have won 8 and Geelong have won 15.
• Port Adelaide have a 60% strike rate at AAMI Stadium, Geelong is less successful at the venue with a 32% win rate.
• Geelong have won 9 of the last 10 outings against the Power. Port’s last victory against Geelong was in Round 21, 2007.
• Geelong are the third best attacking side, scoring 895 points so far this season. Port Adelaide are the 6th best attacking side with 820 points.
• Geelong are 12th for points against whereas Port are the 6th best defensive team.
It does not appear Port Adelaide will garner much of a home advantage for this match. As the statistics show, Geelong have travelled with success. Port have also failed to beat Geelong since Round 21, 2007. Ironically, the 2007 grand final was played between these two teams and Geelong absolutely smashed Port Adelaide 163-44. Ports defence will be key in this match, but they need to score points to win as well and they seem to have trouble doing this early in a game. Admittedly, Geelong suffer from the same ailment but they have been better at snaring the ultimate result – victory. Given Geelong’s recent form compared to that of the Power’s, I am going with a Geelong victory.
In the head to head market, Port Adelaide are $5.00 and Geelong are the $1.18 favourites. In the line betting, Port Adelaide +29.5 and Geelong -29.5 is paying $1.91 with IASbet.com.
Look at putting Geelong into multis over 16 points in the tri bet option ($1.40) or having a wager on the margin for Geelong to win by 25-36 ($5.00). If you want to play it a bit safe, have something on Geelong at -29.5 on the line betting ($1.91). You could also have a little on Geelong to score first ($1.65).
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