Fri, May 31, 12:32pm by Rob Sheeley
Match: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights – NRL Round 12
When/Where: 7:30pm, Saturday 1st June at ANZ Stadium
AUD $100 Free NRL Bet: www.IASbet.com
A quality battle between two top five teams looms here. Surprisingly, it’s also a matchup between two Round 11 losers. The competition leaders South Sydney had their colours lowered for just the second time this season last Monday when they suffered a two point loss (14-12) to the Sharks on a wet track in the shire. The Knights travelled across the ditch to the land of the long white cloud and were overrun by an enthusiastic Warriors outfit.
The Rabbitohs second loss of 2013 was played out in deplorable conditions at Sharks Stadium last Monday. A procession of dropped balls when the game was there to win cost the cardinal and myrtles dearly. The Rabbitohs still sit in first place but Coach Michael McGuire will be concerned with their discipline after they were on the wrong end of a lopsided 11-3 penalty count. South Sydney remain premiership favourites at $4 with IASbet.com.
The Knights went into half time with a two point lead over the Warriors (12-10) last Sunday. The Novocastrians failed to register a single point in the second half and were outgunned by 28-12. Despite the loss they remain in fifth place on the ladder and the bookies are still keeping them safe at $21 in premiership markets.
For Souths, Nathan Merritt takes over the fullback role from Greg Inglis this week with Andrew Everingham back into the side on the wing. Nathan Peats will start at lock with alongside Ben Lowe playing in the second row in place of Queensland duo Ben Te’o and Chris McQueen. Dave Tyrrell will start in the front row as George Burgess returns to the bench while Justin Hunt and Jeff Lima are new additions to the seventeen. Sam Burgess was originally named in the starting lineup but has been handed a one week suspension with a replacement yet to be named.
1. Nathan Merritt
2. Andrew Everingham
3. Beau Champion
4. Dylan Walker
5. Bryson Goodwin
6. John Sutton
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Dave Tyrrell
9. Issac Luke
10. Roy Asotasi
11. Ben Lowe
12. Sam Burgess
13. Nathan Peats
14. Justin Hunt
15. Jason Clark
16. Jeff Lima
17. George Burgess
The South Sydney bubble finally burst last weekend when they were a very short priced favourite against the Sharks. It was a dour match played in wet weather which may have worked against them. When betting here it is of interest to not that the South Sydney team is missing four players including their super stars, Greg Inglis and Sam Burgess.
You can often snare an inflated price and it can be a value bet on a team like the Rabbitohs after one poor showing. The club currently has a winning culture and before last week had been on fire. They had won three games in a row by fourteen or more points and consistent results like that can be a margin bettors dream.
With injuries to Kurt Gidley and Akuila Uate plus Darius Boyd’s presence in the Maroons squad there has been a number of changes to the Newcastle side. Kevin Naiqama will start at fullback and Peter Mata’utia on the wing. Travis Waddell will start at hooker with Jeremy Smith returning from suspension at lock which will see David Fa’alogo move back to the bench.
1. Kevin Naiqama
2. James McManus
3. Dane Gagai
4. Joey Leilua
5. Peter Mata’utia
6. Jarrod Mullen
7. Tyrone Roberts
8. Kade Snowden
9. Travis Waddell
10. Willie Mason
11. Robbie Rochow
12. Alex McKinnon
13. Jeremy Smith
14. Adam Clydsdale
15. David Fa’alogo
16. Adam Cuthbertson
17. Korbin Sims
The Knights appear to be like the girl in the nursery rhyme with the curl in the middle of her forehead (when they are good they are very, very good, but when they are bad they are horrid). The Newcastle side have developed a trend either winning (or losing) by a big margin. In fact not one of their last five matches has been decided by less than fourteen points, and that is a good indicator for anyone wanting to have a margin bet.
The tough variable in the scenario is their lack of consistency. They lose games they are expected to win and vice versa. This can make it hard for anyone wanting to have a bet with any sort of confidence especially against quality opposition.
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The key here is South Sydney’s depth and whether or not the club culture has rubbed off on the less experienced players. They can ill afford to start slowly against the hit and miss Knights who are unstoppable once on a roll. If Newcastle get out of the blocks then it’ll be up to the Rabbitohs to chase them down, that may interest half time/full time double punters as I have suggested in the final tip of this article.
The forward packs still match up nicely despite the plethora of players out and it is even possible that the Knights have an edge in that department. Players like George Burgess will have to step up with increased minutes to compensate losses for the Rabbitohs.
It’s not a clear cut game but given that the Rabbitohs have such a tremendous side this year and that players who are coming up have performed so far I think they have the edge. The fact that they are playing at home is also a big plus with the Knights having won just one game away this season.
Rabbitohs by 7
Rabbitohs – $1.48 Head to Head with IASbet.com
Knights – $2.70
At full strength, this would be a massive price for the South Sydney side. Sure they are missing some players but so are their opposition and this looks good value on that basis for a H2H bet.
Rabbitohs 1-12 – $3.00 with IASbet.com
Rabbitohs 13+ – $2.60
Knights 1-12 – $3.75
Knights 13+ – $8.00
With the two sides evened up a little due to absences there is a chance of a little value bet here. Bookies still rate the Rabbitohs as probable big winners. But the Knights can easily stay within twelve points and the $3 look pretty enticing.
Rabbitohs -6.5 – $1.92 with IASbet.com
Knights +6.5 – $1.92
Despite the margin prices suggesting that bookies think the Rabbitohs will romp in, they have played it a lot more safe here. This market looks very well priced for mine and possibly that means it’s a risky place to bet compared to the margin betting. I’ll stick with South Sydney to cover the line based on my prediction, but only just.
With South Sydney’s prolific try scorer Nathan Merrit being shifted away from his preferred position it is time to look further afield for our first try scorer. I think there is value in both Justin Hunt and Dylan Walker for the Rabbitohs who are both currently $15 with IASbet.
Another bet I like is based on the chance of Newcastle starting well but fading. The half time/full time double of Newcastle/South Sydney is currently $8.50 with IASbet.
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