Sun, Sep 15, 1:25pm by Clarinda Campbell
Teams: Swansea ($3.30) vs Liverpool ($2.25) – EPL Week 4
Time/Venue: 5:00am, Tuesday 17th September 2013 at Liberty Stadium
Bet on Swansea vs Liverpool: IASbet.com
The Reds have had a blistering start to the season to start week four of the EPL competition at the top of the ladder. They have not lost a game all season, winning all three. Swansea are down in sixteenth spot with one win and two losses for the year. These two sides appear to match up well as they have been fairly even across the past two EPL seasons.
Liverpool have opened as favourites in the head to head betting market, courtesy of their 5-0 thrashing of Swansea back in February is year. The handicap market is interesting as Swansea are a short price to get up with a one goal advantage.
Swansea were able to notch up their first win of this current EPL season against West Brom (2-0). Prior to that, they had lost to Tottenham (1-0) and Manchester United (4-1). Ben Davis opened the scoring for Swansea against West Brom with Pablo Hernandez scoring the second.
There will be some interest in this match due to the defection of Jonjo Shelvey from Liverpool to Swansea. He left the club so that he could play more matches and develop his game.
Liverpool have been dominant in all their matches so far this season. They have strengthened their squad across the pitch and have improved their defence. The only factor that may be causing the coaching staff some concern is that they haven’t converted possession to points. They have 13.7 shots per game but only one goal per game, which is a 7% conversion rate.
The last time these sides met it was a five goal drubbing in favour of Liverpool. Gerrard, Coutinho, Enrique, Suarez and Sturridge all scored. Four months prior it was a different result when Swansea eliminated Liverpool from the Capital One Cup following a 3-1 win over the Reds.
In this match, I’m predicting a Liverpool victory based on their form this year. Many believe it will be a low scoring draw but I think Liverpool will be one goal better.
Swansea Head to Head: $3.30
Liverpool Head to Head: $2.25 with IASbet.com
I’ve tipped a Liverpool win, so the head to head betting market is the first logical choice for a bet in this match. Considering Liverpool have won all three matches this year, they are great odds at $2.25.
Swansea (+1): $1.62
Handicap Draw (+1): $3.75
Liverpool (-1): $4.20
There is never much between these two teams. I think Liverpool will be one goal better and with the +1 to Swansea this will bring the handicap draw into play. $3.75 looks like the value play.
Under 0.5 Goals: $9.50
Over 0.5 Goals: $1.04
Under 1.5 Goals: $3.35
Over 1.5 Goals: $1.30
Under 2.5 Goals: $1.80 with IASbet.com
Over 2.5 Goals: $1.93
Under 3.5 Goals: $1.30
Over 3.5 Goals: $3.35
Under 4.5 Goals: $1.10
Over 4.5 Goals: $6.00
On average, in the last five matches there has been just 2 goals scored per match. This brings the under 2.5 goals betting market into contention.
Swansea to win by exactly 1 goal: $5.00
Swansea to win by exactly 2 goals: $10.00
Swansea to win by exactly 3 goals: $26.00
Swansea to win by 4 or more goals: $81.00
0-0 Draw: $9.50
Score Draw: $4.33
Liverpool to win by exactly 1 goal: $3.75
Liverpool to win by exactly 2 goals: $6.50
Liverpool to win by exactly 3 goals: $14.00
Liverpool to win by 4 or more goals: $26.00
I’ve predicted Liverpool to be one goal better and this is currently $3.75 in this winning margin market. If you believe what many have stated about this match (being a score draw) then this option is available as well and is currently paying $4.33.
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