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Victory vs. Wanderers – A-League betting preview

Sat, Dec 28, 9:27am by Rob Sheeley

A-LeagueMatch:Melbourne Victory Vs Western Sydney Wanderers – A-League Round 12
When/Where: 7:45pm AET, Saturday 28th December at AAMI Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet:

In what is the most anticipated match of Round 12 in the 2013/14 Hyundai A-League, the second placed Western Sydney Wanderers make the trek south to take on the third placed Melbourne Victory.

The Victory are playing the fourth game of five straight games at AAMI Park and the home ground advantage is showing with the Melbourne side winning their last two games on end. They defeated crosstown rivals, the Melbourne Heart last week in style winning 3-1. The week before they took care of the Perth Glory in a 2-0 win. Last week’s win was the Victory’s fifth for the season from eleven outings. They have also managed three draws and three losses. Going into Round 12, they sat six points behind the competition leaders the Brisbane Roar and are a $6.00 chance in title betting. They enter this game as $2.50 favourites on the back of their recent form but it will be far from a walk in the park against one of the most consistent teams in the country.

The Western Sydney Wanderers have been the epitome of consistency so far this season and have lost just one game. They enter this match coming off two wins against the in-form Newcastle Jets (1-0) and the reigning premiers, the Central Coast Mariners (2-0). Given that the Jets have won five of their last seven matches, the win against them away from home cannot be understated. There looks to be s bit of value about the Wanderers based on their form. It’s not often that you can get $2.80 about them under any circumstance, let alone when they are playing a side placed below them on the ladder. The Wanderers are currently on the second line of premiership betting at $4.00.

In the short history between the two teams it has been a reasonably one-sided affair. The Wanderers have won three of the four clashes against the Victory to date. The Victory do have a very good win strike rate at AAMI Park but the Wanderers is even better. They have never been beaten at the Melbourne venue in three outings. When the sides met back in Round Six, it was a Wanderers win by 1-0.

  • These two teams have met four times, the Wanderers have three, the Victory have won one.
  • The last time they met back in Round Six the result was a 1-0 win to the Wanderers.
  • The Wanderers have won three from three at AAMI Park.
  • The Victory have a 52% winning record at AAMI Park.

Keys to victory

The Melbourne Victory will be missing their star striker Archie Thompson this week but still have plenty of fire power up front. James Troisi is an absolute goal scoring machine for the Victory who has already hammered home seven goals this season in just eleven appearances. Mitch Nichols is another who knows how to find the back of the net and he will need to be heavily involved with the absence of Thompson.

Victory skipper Mark Milligan is the big game player at the back for his side. The 28 year old is the adhesive that keeps the Victory together defensively and his contributions will be vital for the home team in this big encounter.

The Wanderers welcome the return of experienced A-League striker Mark Bridge for this match. Bridge has scored 39 career goals in this competition including three this season from just nine games. Look for Bridge to combine with the Wanderers foreign marquee star Shinji Ono and create havioc with the Victory defenders.

Tomi Juric is the man of the moment for the Wanderers, he has scored four goals in just six appearances including one last weekend. He will take some holding out again this weekend and looks a solid bet to score at any time during the match at $2.50.

As always it will be up to Wanderers captain Michael Beauchamp to keep the red and blacks defensive line intact. They have managed six clean sheets in their last nine outings, due in no small part to the leadership that Beauchamp provides. He is the key at the back for Western Sydney.

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Melbourne Victory Vs Western Sydney Wanderers Round 12 Prediction

Given their superb record against the Victory and the fact that they have proven so impenetrable this season to date, I can’t go past the Wanderers in this one.

Make no bones about it, the Melbourne Victory will be far from pushovers in front of a parochial holiday crowd but the Wanderers are proving to be one of the top conveyances in the competition this season. They will take a power of beating.

Prediction – Wanderers by a goal.

Melbourne Victory Vs Western Sydney Wanderers Head-to-head betting

Victory – $2.50
Wanderers – $2.80 Head-to-head with
Draw – $3.25

As we mentioned before, $2.80 about the Wanderers this season is good in any match given their current form. It looks well worth speculating on them in this market at such an attractive price.

Handicap Betting Odds & Tips

Victory (-1)- $5.50
Draw (-1) – $4.00
Wanderers (+1) – $1.45 with

While the odds aren’t going to buy you a new house, this bet looks the best bet of the game for me. If the Wanderers don’t win, they usually at least find a way to salvage a draw. This gives us the luxury of a one goal head start. It looks a put in/take out proposition and bet of the game.

Over/Under 2.5 Goals Betting

Under 2.5 Goals- $1.73 with
Over 2.5 Goals – $2.03

The way these sides play, this game is unlikely to be a blowout score. Punters have latched onto the under 2.5 goals and it does look the best bet in this market at $1.73.

Exotic and Other Bets

The Wanderers in the draw no bet market looks good at $1.98, they look good enough to either win or draw.

Given the Wanderers great recent run of clean sheets, the Victory to score no goals looks big value at $3.30. Alternatively you could take the $2.00 on offer about “No” in the Both Teams To Score market.

Tomi Juric to score a goal at any stage during the match is another bet worth considering at $2.50.

If you like an investment on the correct score markets, we’d look at having something on Wanderers 1-0 which is currently $8.50.

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