Tue, Nov 19, 9:14pm by Daryl Curnow
What: Sydney Races at Canterbury
Where: Canterbury, Sydney, Australia
When: Wednesday, November 20. First race kicks off at 1:20pm.
Bet with: IASbet.com and get a free $100 bet.
SMALL but good fields are on display at Canterbury, where you can often find a future Saturday winner. There are seven races carded with Sydney’s best jockeys all taking rides for this mid-week event.
A small but select field of six runners line up where the major training stables look to strike early on the card.
Gai Waterhouse saddles up the top-weighted filly Aztec Rose, who has run solid races in behind some quality types this season. The daughter of Sebring has won only once, that coming two starts back at Hawkesbury when running as a short favourite, but has placed behind some progressive Saturday class horses. In a maiden at Warwick Farm, Aztec Rose ran a close third behind Gallatin, who has since won on Oaks Day at Flemington. She then ran a narrow second behind Strace who is shooting for three straight wins later in the card, however, Aztec Rose has carried no more than 55.5kg in her past five starts and the 59kg she’ll carry here could count against her.
The Gerald Ryan-trained Roving Red was sent out a short favourite last time out at Hawkesbury and despite looking beaten on the turn, the Red Ransom gelding fought strongly and scored a one-length win. That win demonstrated his toughness and it looks as though he’ll appreciate the rise in trip to 1,900 metres. He was a hot favourite that day because of his form around Marmelo, who won impressively in a tough race during the Melbourne Cup carnival.
Likely to be well supported in the market is the Peter Moody-trained Mutajara. The three-year-old gelding has a mixed form line but his runs at Flemington and Moonee Valley should be discounted as the class was simply too high for him. In easier grades the Mutawaajid gelding has fared well with a win and a second placing, the win coming at Bendigo in a three-year-old maiden. He’s another who will appreciate the increase in distance and he’ll be suited by the small field.
Recommended bet: It looks like a three-horse field, so we’re suggesting a boxed trifecta of Aztec Rose, Mutajara and Roving Red. Of these three, we’re leaning towards Aztec Rose and Roving Red despite their increases in weight.
Another small field takes its place, but it’s not void of talent with every runner a decent shot to take the prize.
Starting at the top, Flak Jacket is an interesting colt who has raced over a variety of distances. His trainer Grahame Begg has raced him inconsistently over the sprint distances and that could be a deterrent to backing him here. He’s raced against top quality horses in Sidestep and Zoustar but raced poorly on those occasions. Back in this grade, he’s a place chance.
Chris Waller is continuing his dominance in the Sydney ranks once again and he lines up The Alfonso here. The three-year-old colt has had three starts for two fourths and one second, the latter coming last time out at Warwick Farm when finishing just in behind Miniature. Nash Rawiller takes over from the in-form Tommy Berry however Rawiller is a more than capable replacement.
Peter Snowden trains Occasion, who won impressively last start and her breeding suggests she’ll be right in the mix here. She’s by Street Cry and they’re simply on fire at the moment with wins coming all over Australia each and every week. She was well supported on debut – like most of Peter Snowden’s runners – where she finished fifth and was again well supported second-up when she won by just under a length at Hawkesbury. She’s drawn in outside barriers in both starts to date but gets the luxury of the 1 gate here and she’ll likely use that to full advantage.
Recommend bet: There are only five runners so most of them will be at shorter odds, however, Occasion looks to have everything in her favour. Occasion ($4.60) to win at IASbet.com
There are multiple winning chances here with Meteoros, Lundi, Seritza, Supreme Joy and Verdura, all looking like worthy favourites.
Meteoros has had six starts for Joseph Pride, all coming against quality Saturday opposition. The three-year-old gelding has run second to Moderate, who beat a good field during Melbourne Cup Week at Flemington and also Pitcrew who has proven form in Sydney. Fresh up and back to the 1,100 metres will suit as he’s had a tendency to lead and just get run down over the longer distances. Tommy Berry takes the ride after an extremely successful Singapore trip.
With some rain in the area over the past few days, the track might have the slight edge taken out of it, if so Supreme Joy is a good chance to win. Another trained by Joseph Pride, the Lonhro filly has had two starts for a second and a third where she finished within half a length from the winner on both occasions. Both runs have come on heavy tracks when second to Contrite Heart and third to Stocky – who have both been impressive runners throughout the year – but the track is unlikely to be that heavily rain affected. The market will suggest which Pride runner is more favoured.
Seritza and Verdura have come close to winning and both have a decent chance of being in the money. Seritza is a filly by Sebring who battled on debut at Warwick Farm but came second to Vocalise at her next start. She was then well supported in her last run but she hung badly throughout and cost herself a chance of winning. If she races genuinely and keeps her mind on the job, she’s got the pedigree to win. Verdura was heavily backed on debut but disappointed for eighth and was then left alone in the betting as she started a $19 shot at Hawkesbury. The David Vandyke filly ran second to Occasion – who we think will run well in race 2 – therefore she’s a decent shot here.
Lundy is a first starter for Paul Messara who’s had two trials for two wins. She’s owned by Arrowfield which usually means there is confidence in the camp. If she’s at short odds, expect her to run well.
Recommended bet: Meteoros will appreciate the easier grade here. Meteoros to win ($5) at IASbet.com
Magna Amica stands out in this rating 69 field as she has just come out of a rating 75 event at Rosehill on a Saturday. She was disappointing when finishing ninth but she just found the grade a little too tough. Back to a more suitable race, she’ll likely race more attributed to her three straight wins that started her career. All three wins came narrowly but Kudero and Fancy Dress have both come out and performed well since, so the form stacks up. She’s stepping up in distance which is a concern but the daughter of Magnus has a little bit of class about her.
Pentometer was a consistently average performer until the Chris Waller-trained gelding won by six lengths last time out at Newcastle. That was only a maiden event and he’ll be dropping back in distance which is odd considering his form over the staying distances, however you can’t doubt Waller’s tactics of late and it’ll pay to stick with him. He’s bred nicely and has been well supported in every run so a win wouldn’t surprise.
Dolphi’s Boy is an outside chance as his two runs this campaign will have him in fit order for this. The Stephen Hill-trained gelding usually needs a couple of runs to get going and he ran on well for third last time out at Warwick Farm. He’s dropping in grade for this and could be running home strongly over the less experienced types.
Recommended bet: Magna Amica each way ($3.70 and $1.40) at IASbet.com
We previously mentioned that our tip in Race 1 – Aztec Rose – came second to Strace, who lines up here against a tough field of middle distance horses. The four-year-old will be up against it here even though she’s shooting for three straight wins. She is trained around the country tracks but her win at Randwick wasn’t a fluke and she deserves to be supported in the market. Her two previous wins came very easily which suggests she’s got a touch of class and Nathan Berry continues his association with her.
We tipped Absolutelyanything to win at Canterbury last Friday at the night meeting where she looked a likely winner but just couldn’t withstand the late charge from Fancy Dress. The Joseph Pride mare has more scope than her opposition here and the step up in distance will force her to settle better throughout the run and be tough to beat. Jason Collett takes over from the absent Christian Reith and he’s riding very well in Sydney at the moment.
Recommended bet: Absolutelyanything to win ($3.60) and Strace to place ($1.70) at IASbet.com
Choisir La Rouge returns to the track after a promising three-year-old campaign where he won on debut, beating a tough sprinter in Rastro, before running a disappointing seventh when stepping up in grade at Warwick Farm. The Choisir gelding has since won two trials in the city and looks well primed to make a winning return here. She’s drawn well and Glyn Schofield will be looking to redeem himself after sitting out the last few weeks due to suspension.
Another quality mare is the Greg Bennett-trained Limitation, who put together three straight wins to open her racing career last season. The Show a Heart mare raced in listed company as Scone but finished fifth after suffering a season ending bleed. She returned to the track in November and ran a good race for second behind Worldly Impact over 1,000 metres. She’ll be greatly improved by that run and she looks to have an exciting future ahead.
Recommended bet: This looks to be the quinella of the day with Choisir La Rouge at $2.50 and Limitations at $3.40. They look well above the rest of this field and the quinella should pay around $2.80-$3.50 at IASbet.com
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