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2014 AFL markets – Brownlow, Premiership, Coleman betting update

Mon, May 19, 3:50pm by Dominic Ciconte

Gary Ablett JrSOME things returned to normal in Round 9 of the 2014 AFL season, while others, well… they seem to get stranger by the week.

After a terrible start to the season, the Sydney juggernaut is gaining momentum. The team that many had picked as a top four lock and premiership contender won its fourth game in a row on Friday night and now sits in third place on the ladder.

Sydney’s midfield has been the spark behind the revival, finally giving key forwards Lance Franklin and Kurt Tippett a chance to do serious damage up forward.

Collingwood’s hot run ended at the hands of a fired-up Adelaide in front of another packed-out Adelaide Oval crowd. The Magpies could have secured a place inside the top four, but now find themselves languishing in eighth, while the Crows have kept their finals chances alive and will gain confidence and momentum from the performance.

Geelong succumbed to an inspired Fremantle at Patersons Stadium and dropped its second game in three outings. Fremantle superstar Matthew Pavlich celebrated game 300 in style as the Dockers looked to have re-found the spark that has been missing over the last month.

As we’ve come to expect over the past seven years or so, Gary Ablett was unstoppable in the Suns win over St Kilda. His Brownlow Medal odds shorten by the week.

The Saints, who opened the season in such promising fashion, are beginning to feel the pinch of an AFL season and are looking like the bottom four side many had envisioned coming into the season.

The shock of the round? The mighty Dees getting their third win of the season over the bewildering Richmond Tigers.

With the passing of Richmond’s former premiership coach, the great Tom Hafey, the Tigers were expected to come out all guns blazing, but it was Melbourne who played the inspired football. Richmond coach Damian Hardwick, a man now under significant pressure, was left speechless after the match.

After nine rounds of football, AustralianGambling takes a look at the main AFL future betting markets – the premiership, the Brownlow Medal, the Coleman Medal and the Rising Star – to see where the value lies.

The 2014 AFL Premiership betting market

There’s been significant movement in the premiership market almost every week in 2014, but perhaps none more significant than this week.

After losing key midfielder Sam Mitchell for two months (hamstring), best and fairest defender Josh Gibson for three months (pectoral) and match-winner Cyril Rioli for at least a month (hamstring), the Hawks are hurting and their depth is being tested.

For the first time in 2014, Hawthorn eased in Premiership betting, going from $3.50 to $3.90. Expect them to dip again if they turn in a poor performance against Port Adelaide on Saturday night.

Sydney is the bolter in this market. The Swans got out to as much as $10 during round 6, but have now come into $4.50 at Sportingbet.com.au.

If you’re thinking of backing the Swans now, you can still get them at $5.50 with Sportsbet.com.au.

Look away now Tigers fans. After starting the season at $18, Richmond are now $251 to win the flag and $9 just to make the eight.

After a rough few weeks Geelong have eased from $5 to $7 and the money continues to come for Port Adelaide. The Power are $6.50 after starting the season at $34.

Sportsbet.com.au’s AFL 2014 Premiership odds:

Hawthorn $3.70
Sydney $5.50
Port Adelaide $6.50
Geelong $6.50
Fremantle $7
Collingwood $13
North Melbourne $21
Adelaide $26
West Coast $34
Gold Coast $34
Essendon $41
Carlton $151
Western Bulldogs $201
Richmond $251
GWS $501
St. Kilda $501
Melbourne $1001
Brisbane $1001

 

The 2014 Brownlow Medal betting market

Just give him the medal now.

At the risk of sounding like a broken record, there’s simply no way anyone can take this medal off Gary Ablett, should the little master stay fit and play out the season.

We told you to jump on at the start of the season when he was paying a juicy $7 and that figure has been stripped back sharply.

Ablett is $2.05 at Sportingbet.com.au (better than $1.90 at Sportsbet) and is the shortest-priced favourite in medal history at this time of the season.

The Suns have already won six games this season. That is a dangerous sign for Ablett’s medal rivals, considering he won last year when the Suns could muster only eight wins for the year. He is a chance to poll in more games already and it could be argued he is playing career-best football.

It’s time to add Ablett to your multis now. Don’t say we didn’t warn you.

One of his nearest rivals, Geelong’s Steve Johnson, could be out of contention for the medal as he fights a suspension for head-butting, while the next closest are Josh Kennedy ($8), Patrick Dangerfield ($10) and Scott Pendlebury ($12).

The 2014 Coleman Medal market top chances

We look at the Coleman Medal in 2014 with the same level of uncertainty that exists for all men who are forced to answer the question, “Do I look fat in this?”

There’s just no right answer.

Josh Kennedy (24 goals) and Jay Schultz (25) lead Coleman Medal betting at $6, but after them there is a genuine traffic jam as the market waits for someone to step forward and take the comp by storm.

Perhaps that player is Josh Kennedy, who is coming off an 11-goal haul, albeit against the Giants, in round 8.

The man who is favourite for the medal at the start of the season, Travis Cloke, can’t buy a goal. He has just nine goals after eight games and is playing some of the worst football of his 200-game career. If you think Clokey can turn it around, you can now get $21 on him to turn his season around and win the medal.

The top six goal kickers, with Sportingbet.com.au odds:

Jay Schulz – 25 goals, $6
Josh Kennedy – 24, $6
Nick Riewoldt – 24, $17
Luke Breust – 24, $21
Tom Hawkins – 21, $10
Jarryd Roughead – 20, $10


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