Tue, Apr 25, 6:17pm by Senior Writer
They may be having their best start in an AFL season in 20 years, but Richmond will go into Sunday’s clash with Adelaide as a rank $4.95 outsider.
Adelaide start $1.18 favourites in the match, with the line at 30.5, despite the Tigers having won their first five matches of the season, including Monday night’s MCG clash with Melbourne in front of 85,000.
Of course, the Crows are also 5-0, with a massive percentage of 152.4 having demolished Gold Coast by 67 points on Saturday. They are $4 equal favourites for the premiership with GWS, while the Tigers, who came from behind to defeat Melbourne by 13 points, are still $18 despite their positive start.
Richmond have won two of their past four matches against the Crows in Adelaide, so will hold out some hope of causing an upset.
It’s worth noting that the Cats have lost their past two matches against Collingwood at the MCG despite starting favourites in both matches. The line for this match is 24.5 points in the Pies’ favour.
The team who could find themselves as high as second after this round are GWS Giants, who host Western Bulldogs on Friday night in Canberra in a battle of fourth versus fifth.
These two teams met in last year’s preliminary final with the Dogs getting the win in a brilliant match. The Giants are $1.34 favourites for this match, which seems far too short given the Dogs are the reigning premiers. The visitors are $3.29 with a 20.5 point headstart at the line.
Hawthorn and St Kilda meet in what shapes as a crucial match for both sides season in Launceston on Saturday afternoon. The Hawks got their first win of the season last week and are $1.80 to make it two in a row and get back to 2-4. That would draw them level with the Saints, who were outplayed late in the game against Geelong last Sunday and are $2.02 to win this.
As mentioned earlier this week on Australian gambling, two teams who are 0-5 on the ladder are short-priced favourites to win this week. Sydney are $1.11 to end their winless run against Carlton who are $6.70, while North Melbourne are $1.47 to knock of the Gold Coast ($2.68).
The Western Derby is always hard fought and with West Coast and Fremantle separated by just one place on the ladder, there is plenty at stake. West Coast have won the past three of these matches and are $1.45 to make it four, while the Dockers, who have put together a hat-trick of wins, are $2.78.
Friday April 28
Greater Western Sydney $1.34 v Western Bulldogs $3.29 (Line 20.5)
Saturday April 29
Hawthorn $1.81 v St Kilda $2.00 (Line 2.5)
Carlton $6.40 v Sydney $1.12 (Line: 37.5)
Brisbane $4.95 v Port Adelaide $1.18 (Line 30.5)
North Melbourne $1.47 v Gold Coast $2.68 (Line 13.5)
West Coast $1.43 v Fremantle $2.84 (Line 16.5)
Sunday April 30
Essendon $2.01 v Melbourne $1.80 (Line 2.5)
Geelong $1.19 v Collingwood $4.70 (Line 29.5)
Adelaide $1.18 v Richmond $4.95 (Line 30.5)
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