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Super Saturday – Flemington: Preview, Odds and Best Bets

Sat, Mar 11, 8:27am by Senior Writer

Super Saturday is considered the peak of Melbourne’s autumn racing with the running of both the Newmarket Handicap and the Australian Cup at Flemington.

The Newmarket is regarded as one of the best sprinting races in the land, while the Australian Cup is the peak middle distance race for the best weight-for-age horses at this time of year.

There’s a thousand ways to do your dough in this caper and I discovered two more last week as Madeenaty showed all the courage of a Marsh brother on an Indian wicket and Almoonqith took an unplanned expedition of the western suburbs of Melbourne on a day when you needed to be on the fence.

The Newmarket is a race which has always fascinated me. It’s a really tough race in my opinion and there won’t be much of a margin separating the top six or so horses.
WATCH: Our Preview of Super Saturday

I’ll be backing Terravista in the race, because he has the form and is at outstanding value at around >$12. This old guy may have the biggest weight in the race, but he loves the Flemington straight, having one twice and being placed four times in six starts. He won the Lightning last time out beating most of the major chances here.

In the Australian Cup, I really like Jameka to add to her impressive resume here. She’s already a two-time Group One winner, including last year’s Caulfield Cup, while she’s won twice at this track. Amazingly, 10 of the 12 horses in this race met at Caulfield at their last start, so we’ve got a great guide where those horses are at.

Jameka had the toughest run in that race, having been trapped early and having to push up on the speed. She fought on well for fourth and if she is ridden with cover here, she should handle this lot. She’s now >$4 favourite.

My best of the day was Race 5 No.2 I am a Star (>$2.05). This filly is a Group One winner in the Spring at this track and has come back in great form. She beat Chautauqua home when second first-up and then wasn’t too far away in an Oakleigh Plate when she didn’t get a lot of room in the straight. She goes back to three-year-old grade here and gets in at level weights. She’s got a good barrier and should prove far too classy for these.

If you want more value, and I know you do, have an each-way play on Race 1 No.2 Sadaqa. He stepped up to Group 3 level last week and found himself out of his depth. Comes back to a  benchmark race which is vastly more suitable. He loves this track and does tend to improve with racing so being fourth=up into this should suit him.  They are giving you >$15 about him.

Here’s my race by race preview:

Race 1 Melbourne Cup Carnival On Sale Hcp – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Sadaqa ($16)

2nd: 7. Dusty Jack ($3.50)

3rd: 5. Duibio ($19)

4th: 6. King’s Command ($26)

Summary: Even benchmark race here, so keen to look for some value. As mentioned earlier, Sadaqa looks well suited here and his run two back was excellent. Dusty Jack has progressed well through his classes with three straight wins and deserves to be near the top of the market. Duibio can improve greatly third up and does love Flemington. Nice price to boot. King’s Command gets a senior jockey back on which could be key to an improved performance,

Confidence: Will be playing value here, Sadaqa each-way and smaller bets on Duibio and King’s Command.

Race 2 My Kitchen Rules Hcp – 1800m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Hipparchus ($6)

2nd: 10. Hursley ($3.10)

3rd: 9. Red Alto ($4.80)

4th: 5. Try Four ($11)

Summary: Another even sort of race. Like Hipparchus back to Flemington where he won over this distance two back. Hughy Bowman on board gives me extra confidence. Hursley is one of our favourite horses here at AG, but he seems to have forgotten how to win. Not sure I’d take the $3.10. In contrast, Red Alto has remembered how to find the post, and has won three races on the bounce. Try Four has been great his two runs back.

Confidence: Like Hipparchus very much at those odds.

Race 3 Incognitus Stakes – 1100m    

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Selenia ($8)

2nd: 2. Ken’s Dream ($5)

3rd: 1. Sweet Sherry ($15)

4th: 9. Magnatti ($12)

Summary: This is a raffle if I’m honest, but Selenia was super last time after paying an unscheduled visit to the Moonee Valley Tabaret having been 57 wide throughout that race and finishing third. Ken’s Dream is a super talented three-year old and can show up first-up here. Sweet Sherry is with a new stable and has beaten some good horses in her wins. Magnatti suffered defeat for the first time last time, but is better suited down the straight with a gun jockey on board.

Confidence: Not overly confident in having a bet here, but would be nice to see Selenia get the chocolates

Race 4 MSS Security Sires Produce Stakes  – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Eshtiraak ($2.50)

2nd: 1. Aspect ($10)

3rd: 8. Sircconi ($10)

4th: 2. Colesberg ($13)

Summary: Always a good race this and Eshtiraak looks like he’s going places. He showed a bit of toughness last time out and is very fit heading into this race. Aspect has lacked a bit of early speed this campaign, but looks much better suited over 1400m. If he gets cover from barrier nine, he’ll be coming home late. Sircconi tested Eshtiraak last time out and so can’t be ignored, while Colesberg was very good first-up and had little luck second up in Sydney.

Confidence: Eshtiraak is a deserved favourite, but Aspect is probably the better value at $10.

Race 5 TAB Kewney Stakes – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. I Am A Star ($2)

2nd: 5. Oregon Day ($7)

3rd: 4. Kededna ($9)

4th: 14. Red Is The Rose ($31)

Summary: I Am A Star should dominate this race. Her two runs this campaign have been very, very good and she gets off very well here back to level weights against her own sex and age. She’s close to a good thing. Oregon Day has been very good in her two runs this time in and will be in the finish again. The blinkers made a big difference for Kenedna here last time and she can figure again, while Red Is The Rose thrashed an easier field last time but has obvious talent.

Confidence: Only bad luck beats I Am A Star in this race.

Race 6 Schweppervescence Trophy – 1600m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 9. Circular ($5.50)

2nd: 1. Miss Rose De Lago ($5.50)

3rd: 5. Manageress ($15)

4th: 6. Domino Vitale ($15)

Summary: Wide open race with a heap of chances. Circular brings strong form down from Sydney and providing she gets a soft run from an inside barrier, will figure in the finish. Miss Rose De Lago gets a nice draw and drops back in class here to a winnable race. Manageress had to overcome a chequered run last week and is much better suited up to the mile. Domino Vitale can improve here..

Confidence: Not a race where you would be wanting to bet a lot. Circular may have a class edge on this so if you are to bet, she’s your horse.

Race 7 Newmarket Handicap – 1200m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Terravista ($12)

2nd: 2. Spieth ($3.50)

3rd: 4. Sheidel ($8)

4th: 7. Illustrious Lad ($8.50)

Summary: Strong even Newmarket as mentioned earlier. Gone for Terravista because he beat four of his rivals here in the Lightning after spotting them a start. He looks to be back near his best and he’s attractive odds. Spieth was narrowly tipped out in that race and deserves a Group 1 win. He may, however, be one of those horses who finds one better at the top level. Sheidel saluted for us in the Oakleigh Plate and while she steps up in class here, has won down the straight before and will be on the speed making them chase. Illustrious Lad can also be in the finish.

Confidence: Love the $12 each-way about Terravista. That looms a steal when you see his record in this quality of race.

Race 8 TAB Australian Cup – 2000m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 11. Jameka ($4)

2nd: 3. The United States ($6.50)

3rd: 1. Stratum Star ($6.50)

4th:10. Humidor ($4)

Summary: We saw ten of these horsed clash in the St George two weeks ago and that gives us a great guide going into this. Jameka had the toughest run of that race and still fought on to be beaten less than a length. She had to go three lengths faster than the rest of the field between the 1000m and the 600m. Should she conserve more energy here, then she will come home over the top of them. The United States was very good as well first-up and will improve into this having won two and been placed two from four second-up career runs. Stratum Star won that Caulfield race and looks to be back to his best. Will not be far off them at the finish. Humidor‘s lead-up runs have all been excellent, just a bit worried about his manners.

Confidence: This looks Jameka‘s race for the taking. She should peak into this and add to her very impressive resume.

 Race 9 James Boag’s Premium Hcp – 1000m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 13. Runsati ($7)

2nd: 6. Bullpit ($12)

3rd: 10. Sunday Escape ($9)

4th: 15. Bon Rocket ($21)

Summary: Good luck getting out on this one. The VRC has a black sense of humour putting this 1000m raffle as the last leg of the Super Saturday quaddie. Runsati goes in on top. He hasn’t won this time in, but has been beaten less than two lengths his last five runs. He’s due for a breakthrough. Bullpit will go fast out in front and may take some catching. He’s won over the 1000m here before. Sunday Escape is another wonderfully consistent sprinter who will be in the finish because that’s what he does. Bon Rocket back to 1000m is intriguing. He’ll be coming at them late along the inside.

Confidence: None. Go wide and look for odds.


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