Tue, Feb 15, 6:00pm by Kevin Pitstock
The $300k 2400m 2011 Mornington Cup is on tomorrow which is Wednesday the 16th February, 2011. Local horse Cedarberg will run favourite and rightly so. He is the horse to beat in a field some pundits are referring to as weak this year. There are also two other feature races on tomorrow before the Mornington Cup which are the Nepean Waste Inglis Premier 1200m and the Mornington Nissan Hareeba Stks 1200m so tune in tomorrow morning for our late mail and best bets.
I’ve scouted around the major Australian online bookmakers and believe that for most horses, the best fixed odds are available at Sportsbet.com.au. There is a difference of as many as 5 points from what I saw – it pays to shop around punters.
Courtesy of Sportsbet Australia:
1. Macedonian – $7.50
2. Mr Bentley – $5.00
3. Cedarberg – $3.40
4. Guyno – $11.00
5. Starmon – $19.00
6. Cabeza – $9.00
7. Celtic Fantasy – $21.00
8. Summarise – $41.00
9. Golago – $41.00
10. Vesper – $13.00
11. Shewan – $6.00
12. Tarawera – $151.00
13. Nazabeel – $61.00
I have linked the horses above for two different reasons. Cedarberg is the horse to beat. He is a local and is primed for this race after a last start victory on February 9 against some classy runners. He is the favourite to gain automatic entry into the Caulfield Cup and rightly so.
The best “value” or each way shot is Celtic Fantasy. Craig Ritchie doesn’t bring his horses over from New Zealand unless he thinks he has a fair chance of winning the races and Celtic Fantasy is no different. He has won 36.4% of his races and placed in 81.8% of them. Those are fantastic percentages right there even though stats don’t always paint a clear picture.
There has been money for No.11 Shewan who currently sits at $6.00 in fixed odds markets, in from $7.50 when they first opened. Robert Smerdon trains this horse and it has drawn beautifully (4) with the great G Boss aboard.
Cabeza has lost some fans after a last start 6th place finish and will be looking to rectify that tomorrow. The Danny O’Brien trained horse has been steady at $9.00 in betting markets with some still believing the horse can do the trick come race time tomorrow. I was on that bandwagon, but not anymore and even though Cabeza is in with a chance in an open race I’m leaving the No.6 out of my tips here.
Of the other horses you have Mr Bentley and the top weight Macedonian. As with Cabeza, they have a good a chance of any but they aren’t on the top of my list here. You can get $5.00 and $7.50 about these horses respectively.
Tomorrow morning we’ll have our best bets for the three feature races on the 2011 Mornington Cup day and along with our regular Wednesday betting preview.
At the time of writing the fixed odds were correct at Sportsbet. We advise you check Sportsbet.com.au for up to date odds and to place your bets.
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