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Australian Guineas Day – Flemington – Best Bets, Tips and Odds

Fri, Mar 3, 1:09pm by Senior Writer

Racing in Melbourne on Saturday is at Flemington for the Australian Guineas as we build up towards Super Saturday next week.

We had a good week last week, with Joao Moreira getting Sheidel home in the Oakleigh Plate at nice odds, while our Blue Diamond tip Catchy also saluted.

We had a very good February here on www.australiangambling.lv. We select four runners in each race as you know if you are a regular user and of the 36 Saturday Melbourne metro races, we had 28 winners in our top four. Nine of our top picks (or 25%), saluted, while seven our second picks, five of our third picks and seven our fourth picks got the chocolates.

It depends on your betting strategy, but on a vry simple level if you had $1 on every one of these runners, you would have made around 22 per cent profit.

Hopefully, we can continue to find you winners throughout March.

Our best at Flemington comes up in the two-year-old race, Race 3, No.1 Madeenaty. She is super speedy this filly, in fact David Hayes said last week she was the fastest juvenile filly he has trained. She smashed them in her first start down the Flemington straight in October and while she found one better next time out, she rebounded for an impressive win at Wyong.

She then acquitted herself very well in the Magic Millions in January, running third to Houtzen. She has had a freshen-up into this, but is leaps and bounds ahead of these horses. At this stage she is $1.85 and she may shorten by raceday.

Our best value is in Race 8, No.1 Almoonqith. He’s second-up off a run last week and is headed towards the Sydney Cup. He’s got a good record second-up having won three times from seven attempts. Now the weight is a worry, as he carries 5.5kgs more than any other horse in the race, but he is a Geelong Cup winner and ran sixth in last year’s Melbourne Cup. That’s superior to a lot of these.

Worth noting that he has had four runs in Australia over 2400m or further in lower than Group One company and he has won two and run second in the other. What’s better he is $15 at the moment. I’m happy to take that each way.

As for the Australian Guineas, it’s a tougher race than the market would let you believe. I will take the value here with the Caulfield Guineas winner Divine Prophet. You would prefer that he had had another run into this race, but his run against the older horses in the Orr Stakes was pretty good first-up.

He met the favourite Hey Doc over this distance in the Caulfield Guineas and gave him a beating and at $9.50 in this race, I’m happy to be on.

WATCH: Our Preview of Australian Guineas Day

Here’s our full preview of the Flemington meeting.

Race 1 Mrs Mac’s Family Bakery Sprint – 1100m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Catch a Fire ($3.90)

2nd: 8. Savaju ($8)

3rd: 4. Pink Perfection ($12)

4th: 2. Missrock ($4.80)

Summary: Tough race down the straight to start, but Catch A Fire looks well placed in this class. She was very good in a strong Magic Millions race in January and has a bit of an edge on these. The inside barrier down the straight is a slight query, but happy to be on her. Savaju smashed them at Bendigo last time first-up and has come back a stronger filly. Will be steaming late with a light weight on her back. Pink Perfection can improve into this race. Has won down the Flemington straight as a younger horse and will be on the pace. Missrock can show-up first up where she has won twice before.

Confidence: Not an easy start to the day, but some confidence in Catch a Fire showing her class.

Race 2 Bob Hoysted Hcp – 1000m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Heatherly ($2)

2nd: 3. Husson Eagle ($5)

3rd: 1. Charmed Harmony ($14)

4th: 5. Lady Esprit ($6)

Summary: Heatherly is well placed into this race given she is coming off a good run in the Lightning Stakes, where she was beaten two lengths. You don’t have to be a genius to work out that is much better class than this open sprint. Husson Eagle runs well at Flemington and has had a freshen up off a run at the Gold Coast. Fresh form is very sound. Charmed Harmony can be competitive here, first-up off a spell. Lady Esprit is fit and in form and needs to be considered.

Confidence: Very confident in Heatherly in this race. Likes the straight and  looks to have come back well.

Race 3 3aw is Football Hcp – 1000m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Madeenaty ($1.85)

2nd: 3. Sam’s Image ($11)

3rd: 4. Seized ($7)

4th: 2. Can’t Remember ($26)

Summary: Madeenaty should street these. She’s very, very speedy and comes into this fresh and ready to fire. She should win, but the price is getting ugly. Sam’s Image will also settle on the speed and was good in his first start at Benalla. Seized met a very good one first-up and if he repeats that effort, will be in the finish, while Can’t Remember is silly odds.

Confidence: Madeenaty is clearly my best all day, so plenty of confidence here. Also happy to take a good price the place on Can’t Remember.:

Race 4 Mitty’s Hcp – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Jerilderie Letter ($6)

2nd: 4. Liapari ($5)

3rd: 3. Divine Mr Artie ($7)

4th: 8. Portman ($2.30)

Summary: Very even race, but the Tassie horse Jerilderie Letter can win this and is nice odds. Has had two runs here for two placings last winter. Last time ran Hellova Street to within a length at Launceston, and that measures up here. Liapari brings good form down from Sydney, where he won impressively last time out. Divine Mr Artie’s form has been solid this campaign and he’ll be competitive again. Portman steps up in class but is in winning form and can’t be discounted.

Confidence: Happy to be on the two horses who bring their form from elsewhere, Jerilderie Letter and Liapari, here.

Race 5 Frances Tressady Stakes – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Rising Romance ($5.50)

2nd: 4. Manageress ($9.50)

3rd: 7. Deja Blue ($12)

4th: 8. Diamond Baroness ($5.50)

Summary: Big money for Rising Romance here, who has been $7.50 into $5.50 and little wonder when you consider that she’s a Group One winner and resumes in a Group Three race with just 54kgs. Her last three first-up runs have been in Group 1 company, including a 1.3 length second to Black Heart Bart in the Memsie last year. If she is ever going to break a long winning drought, this is the race. Manageress loves this track and while this is a little short of her best distance, she will be steaming home late. Deja Blue is in great form, having won at this track and distance three back and then impressed when back to 1200m last time. She’s over the odds. Diamond Baroness is tough on pace mare, who will give them something to catch.

Confidence: On class and weights, you have to have every confidence in Rising Romance here.

Race 6 Tab Rewards Stakes – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Grande Rosso ($5.50)

2nd: 6. Zebrinz ($5)

3rd: 8. Sadaqa ($10)

4th: 4. Charlie Boy ($15)

Summary: Grande Rosso returns to the 1400m here having battled at the 1600m at a strong tempo last time. Won a similar race to this in January, and get Regan Bayliss back on who won on his twice this campaign. Zebrinz broke through for an overdue win last time and is a two-time Flemington winner who can figure again here. Sadaqa has figured in the top three in six of his 10 Flemington runs, the most recently when beaten by Zebrinz last start. He will improve off that run and is getting out to a nice price. Sticking with Charlie Boy, who looks to have lost his turn of foot, but gets on of the world’s best jockeys on his back in Brett Prebble here

Confidence: It’s a tough race, but things there is value around Grande Rosso and Sadaqa, who both look over the odds.

Race 7 Australian Guineas – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Divine Prophet ($9.50)

2nd: 4. Hey Doc ($3.30)

3rd: 6. Attention ($11)

4th: 14. Harlow Gold ($16)

Summary: Not a vintage Australian Guineas, but will stick with the proven class here in Divine
Prophet
. You’d prefer him to have had an additional run in to this, but who am I to doubt the Hawkes family when it comes to training horses? His run in the Orr was alright and when he last met the majority of these, he beat them in the Caulfield Guineas. He’s better value than Hey Doc, who while he was impressive last time, I’m not sure it was that strong a field. He’s too short for mine. Attention finished less than a length off Black Heart Bart in a G1 WFA last time. That looks strong form for this, while also feel Harlow Gold is great odds given she won well over the 1600m second-up last time

Confidence: Value, value, value is what its all about her and very confident that Divine Prophet is twice the price he should be, as is Attention and Harlow Gold.

Race 8 Roy Higgins Quality – 2600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Almoonqith ($15)

2nd: 2. Big Memory ($5)

3rd: 3. Northwest Passage ($4)

4th: 6. Like a Carousel ($34)

Summary: Good strong staying race, but feel Almoonqith, as mentioned earlier, is excellent value. His best staying form is lengths superior to most of these. He finished top six in a Melbourne Cup, fourth in a Caulfield Cup and won a Geelong Cup in the past 18 months. He gets the weight to carry, but think he can do that second-up. Big Memory has turned into a real grinding type of stayer and while he is never far away, I’m not sure he is the type of horse who will win often. Northwest Passage has taken an usual path through his three-year-old career but keeps winning so you can’t doubt the methodology. Think this might be a step too far. Like a Carousel has run two outstanding races his alst two and gets to his right distance so could challenge for a place at huge odds.

Confidence: Confident that Almoonqith is the best value horse you’ll find all day.

Race 9 Saintly Hcp – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Wazzenme ($19)

2nd: 3. Theanswermyfriend ($4)

3rd: 6. Mr Sneaky ($11)

4th: 4. Redouble ($6)

Summary: This is a hard race to finish off. Not sure you want this one to be your ‘get out stakes’. Wazzenme has been in the black book for a long time and yet to win, but this looks a much more suitable class of race for him. He’s drawn wider, which means he’ll get back and get cover and hopefully get over the top of them at big odds. Theanswermyfriend is the obvious one to beat. He may yet get a run in the Guineas, and won impressively last time. Mr Sneaky has had five weeks off into this run, but his form this campaign has been very solid. Redouble‘s run last time out was excellent and he shapes as a horse who will enjoy Flemington.

Confidence: If you are trying to sort out a difficult and open last race, you might as well find some decent odds and while Wazzenme isn’t a regular winner, this is the most suitable race he has struck for some time.


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