Sat, Oct 16, 12:00pm by Kevin Pitstock
Instead of all the talk being about the horses, everyone is talking about the weather. Caulfield has had a drenching this week and we will definitely being looking for mud larks to feature on the day.
Also any horse that has questionable stamina usually can be discarded as racing on a heavy track is akin to adding an extra furlong to the journey. But there will still be ten horses in the winner’s enclosure and sometimes wet-track form stands up and the winners can be easy to find.
A prime example of this is PURPLE in race 7. This horse just loves the wet tracks having won 5 from 9 on slow or heavy going. She is proven at the distance having won 3 from 6 over the trip and also has a victory over 2400m.
Importantly she drops in weight today, in arguably a more suitable event than her previous 4 starts this campaign. Her overall record of 6 wins and 9 placing’s from 25 starts confirms her consistently and proves she is a trustworthy betting option. With over a million dollars in prize money to her credit, class in stamped all over her.
Currently quoted around $4.00 in fixed odds, this represents good value for money and should provide us with a bank to have a decent trifecta in the cup. If you haven’t already opened up an account with one of our betting partners, why not take advantage of the generous free bet options by signing up and clicking on the link below.
Earlier on the program, I thought PURPLE’S stable-mate SOUL in race 5 was another proven wet tracker in a suitable race. Being lightly raced and already a group 2 winner after just 4 starts, he has more upside than his opponents and should go very close to winning. Currently quoted around $3.50 in fixed odds, this is another that represents good value and can be backed with some confidence.
Now onto The Caulfield Cup. This race historically is a proven pointer to finding the Melbourne Cup winner with often the winner or the placegetter going on to win the big one. With that in mind and also the heavy track, we can narrow the field down somewhat.
Here is my preview of this year’s cup with a comment about every runner and whether they can win or not.
2010 Group 1 Caulfield Cup Preview
1. SHOCKING YES. Last years Melbourne Cup winner proven in the wet and good lead up form, definite chance.
2. METAL BENDER NO. Distant doubt more suited to 2000m WFA events.
3. MR MEDICI NO. Visitor from Honkers who has a fitness & distance doubt tacking this race 1st up.
4. TOKAI TRICK NO. Japanese visitor with no proven wet track form. To risky for mine.
5. BUCELLATI NO. From the UK who has shown us nothing in 3 starts here to warrant any consideration in this.
6. HARRIS TWEED YES. Noted wet tracker with a New Zealand trainer proven at the distance and beyond. Last start winner who drops in weight significantly, definite chance.
7. MANIGHAR YES. UK visitor who brings solid wfa form into this. Distance won’t worry neither should the wet. By all reports has settled in sensationally and ready to run a bold race.
9. MONARCO CONSUL YES. Will relish the track conditions and proven over the distance. Lead up form only average but does drop significantly in weight here. Also has top hoop engaged so have to through in as a chance.
10. TRIPLE HONOUR NO. Big question marks over ability to run the distance.
11. ZAVITE NO. Poor recent form and unproven in the wet.
12. ALCOPOP YES. Bred to handle the wet although relatively untried. Lightly raced who impressed with finish in wfa last start. Drops significantly in weight and just might be coming good at the right time. Distance no concern.
13. HERCULIAN PRINCE YES No real wet track form but is bred to be a swimmer. Likely to get own way in front and dictate the race on own terms. Appeared something special last start when big winner in usual circumstance. Wouldn’t surprise me if was 6 in front coming round the turn and goes further ahead.
15. DESCARADO NO Big distance doubt.
16. JESSICABEEL NO Unproven in the ground and hasn’t regained form from last autumn.
17. FAINT PERFUME YES Trained by the master with proven wet track credentials. Distance no problem and importantly has a gear change with blinkers going on for the first time. This might make the difference and with the lightweight is a real chance.
18. DARIANA YES Also trained by the master but no wet track form. Showed she was in fine fettle two starts ago when running second at wfa behind the champion So You Think. Prefer the stable-mate but can’t rule out entirely.
19. MOURYAN NO Is best on top of the ground and big distance querry on the bog track.
20. RED RULER NO Finds it hard to win and doubt it’s going well enough to warrant any serious consideration.
22. VALDERMORO NO. Who let the back gate slightly open to let this one slip in? Has serious distance doubts, no proven wet track form and not up to the class to figure here.
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