Sat, Feb 26, 11:47am by Kevin Pitstock
Once again we’re gearing up for a massive day of horse racing, but today is a little special because of the exceptional fields around the country. Specifically Caulfield and Rosehill have major races on and those are the two that we’ll be focusing on today. There are also solid meets on at Eagle Farm and Morphetville.
As always are absolutely free and of course do you own due diligence before placing bets. I also recommend price shopping at the major four online Bookmakers in Australia. Sportsbet, Sportingbet, Centrebet and IASbet all have different promotions and specials going on that you can take advantage of, especially on a major Saturday meet like today.
Caulfield Best Bets
Eclair Mystic has had 9 career starts for 6 wins and 3 3rds. The son of Stratum has won at Caulfield three times and placed third on the other occasion. Last start he finished 3rd behind Dusty Star and the classy Under the Eiffel. I have a high opinion of this horse, as you can probably see the reason why with his form lines.
The main threat in the race is Stirling Grove. At the time of writing Stirling Grove is just $0.10 from being the equal favourite. He is currently paying $2.80 on Sportsbet’s fixed odds markets. The son of Mossman’s form reads 9:4-2-1 which is definitely nothing to be sneezed at here. He has drawn barrier 10 though with Eclair Mystic being in barrier 2 which could make it a tricky run for him over the 1200m.
There isn’t a great deal between these two horses in my opinion, but I’m going with Eclair Mystic because of the barrier draw and his slightly better recent form.
I won’t be betting on this race. I’ll let you Aussie punters know that well in advance. This isn’t the sort of race I personally like to bet on. The form of most of these horses isn’t spectacular and there doesn’t look to be a clear standout.
Port Vell is a horse I have liked in the past but have since gone off. He’s paying $8.00 fixed odds but I’m staying away after been let down a couple of times in the past.
My uncertain tip in this race is Scenic Shot, even though he is lumping 60kg. He seems to be a class above the rest, but does not have great form. The former Brisbane horse has won more than $2.5 million in his career which is not a bad earn. He has Shane Scriven aboard who has flown down from Brisbane so he has a familiar jock aboard.
The current favourite in this race is Vesper. This Zabeel Gelding will appreciate the distance and has form of 10:3-3-2. Vesper is carrying 7kg less than Scenic Shot so you can see why he is the favourite. Still i don’t think he is any great thing, hence why I’ve gone with the top weight in this non-bet race for me.
B M W Angus Armanasco Stakes 1400m Best Bet
I’ve noticed some big name horse racing pundits giving praising reviews on “Booklet” in this race and are predicting a win for her. He has Damien Oliver aboard and has drawn barrier 3 in this race. In her last race she was held up for a run in the home straight and the stewards report states that he didn’t want to go through the gap and shifted out to avoid clipping heels. She finished 7th in that race behind Miss Gai Flyer. She goes into today’s 1400m race at fixed odds of $6.50 – if you want to follow the well known tipsters than this bet looks good value.
I am going to go with the big name tipsters in this race and here is why. Zelsnitz, who is the favourite in this race finished 5th in that same race I just mentioned. The difference is he was not held up for a run on the home straight. Three starts ago Booklet beat Zelsnitz in a race over 1400m at Flemington.
Zelsnitz is currently paying $3.70 fixed odds at Sportsbet.com.au while Booklet is $6.50. I think Zelsnitz is unders because of his public reputation. Take advantage of the public sentiment and get good value on Booklet here. Another advantage is the barrier 3 compared with the barrier 10 of Zelsnitz – Booklet should get the run of the race here.
Best Bet: Booklet @ $6.50
The Yalumba 162 Autumn Classic 1800m
This is another race that I will be approaching with caution. I don’t like any of the runners here except for Almindoro. This son of Redoute’s Choice has now won over 100k, but doesn’t have fantastic form. He has been doing enough to warrant a small bet in this field of 11.
Stephen King is aboard and they have drawn barrier 2 in this 1800m race. Almindoro shows 7:1-2-0 with recent form 6-4-1. His last start win came at Moonee Valley over 1519m. The last time he raced over 1800m he finished 2nd behind Eclair Surprise at Flemington on October 3.
The main threat and the favourite of this race @ $3.20 is Kim Divine. He has won his last two starts at Canterbury over 1550m and 1900m with the last start being on the 4th of Feb. The son of God’s Own defnitely has the form coming into this race but I don’t think he has been racing against the quality of opposition that Almindoro has.
At $4.00 I think Almindoro is slightly the better bet in this race – but I either won’t be betting or keeping my bet small in this race.
Rokk Ebony Futurity Stakes 1400m
Can anyone bet against More Joyous in this race? Gai Waterhouse said before he campaign started that she would go through undefeated and it certainly looks like she’s going to keep that run alive today.
She is definitely a spectacular horse but I in all honesty I don’t think she has been tested too much. Punters have come for though with many 5 figure bets.
There is not much to say about this race in my opinion. The main threat is obviously Whobegotyou who will be trying to reclaim his best form. The son of Street Cry races over 1400m today, perhaps a little short for him but we’ll have to wait and see.
Ortensia has shown to be a solid race horse but is a definite 3rd pick in this race behind the afformentioned horses. In with a distant chance, will run an honest race but I don’t think has realistic hopes here.
This is More Joyous’ race to lose – but I think she is classy enough to hold out Whobegotyou.
More Joyous is currently paying $1.50 on Sportsbet.com.au.
Sportingbet Oakleigh Plate 1100m
This race is very open and difficult to predict the winner. Don’t be surprised if an outsider like Reward for Effort gets up and wins this race. There are many chances and a ton of different variables to take into consideration.
I’ve gone for Catapulted in this race, but I won’t be betting and here is why. The race is very open, I think Catapulted is slightly better than the others, but he is also the top weight and has drawn barrier 8. He’ll need to start quickly to get a decent run in this race. Speed maps show he’ll probably settle about three back in the centre. His last start was super impressive when he hunted the field down after being put in the clear late. He is currently paying $5.00 fixed odds at Sportingbet Australia.
The equal favourite of the race is Undeniably who has drawn superbly in barrier 3. The Mark Kavanagh trained son of Fastnet Rock finished 2nd behind White Friars in the Australia Stakes and beat Typhoon Tracy in that race on the 18th January. He should get the run of the race from that barrier and if good enough can win this race.
Of the outsiders I like Reward For Effort with Shane Scriven aboard. He is currnently paying $26.00 on Sportsbet and just $19.00 on Sportingbet so it does pay to shop around. The son of Exceed and Excel has form of 9:4-1-1 and has won over 900k. He has drawn awkwardly in (12) but with any sort of decent run he’ll be making a late charge.
Patinack Farm Blue Diamond Stakes 1200m
Can anyone beat Sepoy? This race is almost over before it has even run. Sepoy has been completely slammed in the betting shortening into $1.50 after several 20k and 30k bets. He has drawn perfectly in barrier 5 and is a clear favourite in this race. We have a full betting review of the 2011 Blue Diamond Stakes here.
Has my opinion changes since writing that article? Just a little. I think Sepoy is obviously the horse to beat, but I don’t think he will be. Atomic is the only unknown quantity in the race and has paid the 55k fee to be in the race which must say something. I still think Hallowell Belle will run a good race but Sepoy does look more and more like a good thing.
Sportingbet have many different markets in this race because of the short priced favourite. There are head-to-head bets and othaer exotics to get punters betting on this seemingly one horse race. Go to Sportingbet to find out more information.
Carlton Draught St George Stks 1800m
The favourite of this race will be Heart of Dreams who almost came up trumps against Typhoon Tracy in its last start. Coming home late in the Orr Stakes he just missed out on the money in what was a fantastic run. He’ll deservedly run favourite at $3.10 in this race. The Show a Heart Gelding has now won over $1.4 million but I have a question mark over his ability at 1800m compared with the 1400m of last start. The last time he ran 1800m was 3 starts ago in his last race before a spell in which he finished 7-11.
I was super impressed with Lord Pyrus in his last start. He jumped first and stayed there the whole race. Everyone will be all over Heart of Dreams today which will give an opportunity to get good value in this race on Lord Pyrus. He is currently paying $7.50 fixed odds on Sportingbet.
The son of Pyrus will have the ever experienced Jim Cassidy aboard and I think has a good chance of notching up another win here.
T B V Mannerism Stakes 1400m
This is another race that I will be approaching with caution. The last race of the day and hopefully by this point us punters have a bit of money in our pocket to play with. Counterpane is currently paying $7.00 on Sportingbet and is just a decent chance in a pretty open race.
Culminate is a $2.70 favourite but has mixed form of late 6-1-5-x. Coming off a 15 week spell I definitely don’t think this is a special and is not any better than the other chances in the race, hence why I’m tipping Counterpane.
Counterpane is trained by Peter Snowden and owned by Sheikh Mohammed which is the same combination as Sepoy. Kerrin McEvoy is aboard and they have drawn barrier 4 in this 1400m race. The son of Lonhro has decent recent form of 3-7-2-3.
At $7.00 he provides much better value than the favourite and I think is worth a little bit of a bet here.
All of these tips are obviously 100% free. I will be betting them but I do suggest doing your own research before putting you hard earned down. Enjoy today’s huge lineup of racing because I know I will be!
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