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Caulfield Saturday – Best Bets and Race By Race Preview

Fri, Jun 30, 1:15pm by Senior Writer

We’re smack bang in the middle of winter here in Melbourne but after nailing our Best Bet last week, we are rugged up and ready to take on Saturday’s meeting at Caulfield.

We tipped you into Cannyescent at $4 last week, and it ended up winning at a SP of $2.70, so hopefully you got on early as we suggested.

Our Best Bet was going to be Race 7, No. 13 Data Point, but he has been scratched. 

Instead we have gone for Race 2 No. 2 Kiwia.

Kiwia was narrowly beaten by one of his rivals here last start but is much better off at the weights here and has already had a run at the 2000m, which should prepare him well for this. He has been lightly raced and has scope for improvement here. He really only has one major rival.
WATCH: Our Preview of Caulfield on Saturday

The one which I think represents the best value is Race 3 No.10 Don’t We Love it.

At this stage Don’t We Love It is around the $16 mark.

Here’s another Darren Weir horse who last start was a pretty good run in a strong race at Sale. Prior to that he was an impressive winner in a midweek race at Sandown and that puts him in pretty good shape for what is a fairly soft benchmark 78 race.

Brad Rawiller has a great affinity for this guy, having had seven rides on him this campaign for two wins and three placings and I can see Brad putting him up near the pace here and he may prove very difficult to get past. He’ll certainly be fit, he’s had 13 starts since January!

Here’s our race by race preview for Caulfield on Saturday.

Race 1 Schweppes Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Royal Phoenix ($7)

2nd: 3. Lone Eagle ($2.50)

3rd: 6. River Jewel ($10)

4th: 4. Prevailing Winds ($21)

Summary: Pretty even two-year-old race to kick things off. I like Royal Phoenix. His first up run was very good, he hit the front and held on for a dead heat in a blanket finish. Although this race is 100m further, you’d expect a lesser tempo and he could prove hard to run down at nice odds. Lone Eagle was the unlucky runner in that race, and clearly has talent, but his racing style means he’ll give them a start.  River Jewel was a good winner at Swan Hill and can improve into this, while Prevailing Winds, who was behind River Jewel at Swanny, can also make progress with blinkers on.

Race 2 Dream Thoroughbreds Hcp – 2000m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Kiwia ($2.40)

2nd: 4. Royal Order ($4)

3rd: 3. Guangzhou ($11)

4th: 10. Windbern ($11)

Summary: Kiwia and Royal Order fought out the race at Flemington and feel Kiwia can turn the tables in this one. That was his first time up to 2000m, and he’ll improve again at this distance here. Royal Order is the main rival but is worse off at the weights. Guangzhou and Windbern were both drawn back towards the inside at Flemington and that proved a disadvantage. They can improve here, and both are at double figures odds.

Race 3 Sheen Group Plate – 1600m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. Don’t We Love It ($16)

2nd: 2. Curragh ($5)

3rd: 6. Youl Dash For Cash ($26)

4th: 5. Cosmic Lights ($5.50)

Summary: I think there’s plenty of value in this race, and my top pick Don’t We Love It keep drifting. I’m not too concerned. He’s been a model of consistency this campaign and his run last time was pretty good at Sale. Like Rawiller on these Weir double figure odds horses. Curragh’s campaign has been very good. He’s been no further back than fourth his past five runs and this looks a suitable race for him to contend in. Youl Dash For Cash is big odds and comes into this race, second-up off a let-up. He can improve significantly into this race off his ok effort last time and is worth including. Cosmic Lights beat Don’t We Love It home last time and is in very good nick. He will be in the finish here.

Race 4 Sheamus Mills Bloodstock Hcp – 1100m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Unique Lovely ($8.50)

2nd: 3. Moonlites Choice ($7.50)

3rd: 6. If Not Now When ($10)

4th: 9. Princess of Queens ($15)

Summary: Unique Lovely got the job done for us last time and can do the same here. She looks a very good horse and can put together a hat-trick here. Moonlites Choice won well at Swan Hill and has improved with every run this campaign. She gets a nice barrier here and is the main threat. If Not Now When has been very good his past three, finishing close up and is on his home track. Princess of Queens is at very good odds having made strong progress last campaign and she has one win from her three first-up runs.

Race 5 Tile Importer Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Snake Charmer ($7)

2nd: 4. Grey Street ($7)

3rd: 3. Forgeress ($18)

4th: 1. Whistle Baby ($5.50)

Summary: Pretty even race but like the Adelaide mare Snake Charmer off a good win last time. Didn’t really measure up when she came across six months ago, but she has improved since and her hopes aren’t hurt by the decent dose of rain we had during the week. Grey Street was a little disappointing last time but has a win and five placings from eight starts at Caulfield so will be happy to be back here. Forgeress has been freshened up off the Wangoom and has won at Caulfield before and performs well off a break. Whistle Baby is in good enough form to stave off retirement, so must be included.

Race 6 Securecorp Hcp – 1400m  

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Nikitas ($4.40)

2nd: 4. Yu Long Sheng Hui ($18)

3rd: 1. Revolving Door ($5.50)

4th: 5. Valliano ($12)

Summary: Will stick with Nikitas here despite being beaten its last two. His campaign has been very good and while he found one better last time, that horse was a huge run last week. He can still improve this campaign and if he does, he wins this. The step up to 1400m suits Yu Long Sheng Hui, who let us down slightly time. He is a previous winner at Caulfield and draws nicely again. Revolving Door was a good win first-up and if he holds that form can contend here, while Valliano threw his rider last time, but before that had run a couple of nice races.

Race 7 Moorookyle Park Hcp – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

 

1st: 8. Black Sheep ($11)

2nd: 15. So Does He ($14)

3rd: 3. Onerous ($7.50)

4th. 2. Del Prado ($8)

Summary: Original top two selections are scratched here, so we’ve had to change course. Ended up going with Black Sheep. He doesn’t have a great first-up record, but has never kicked off over 1400m before, and feel he can improve this time in. So Does He has had three indifferent runs this campaign but tends to improve significantly from fourth-up onwards where he has an excellent record. Onerous and Del Prado are the ones at the top of the weights worth considering.

Race 8 Ladbrokes Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Divine Mr Artie ($8)

2nd: 8. Leodoro ($4.80)

3rd 10. Zara Bay ($6.50)

4th: 1. Smackdown ($11)

Summary: Divine Mr Artie was a devastating winning first-up at Flemington last time and happy to be on him to produce that quality of run again here. What’s better he’s very nice odds and I don’t feel it’s that strong a race. Leodoro was famously unlucky last start and you know Beau Mertens won’t make that same mistake this time. He can win this with the right luck. Zara Bay was a good run first-up over the 1000m and can improve here where he she has won before. Smackdown ran a bottler at Swan Hill again in a good form race but has traditionally struggled to take that form to town, but on those previous occasions he wasn’t trained by DK Weir.

Race 9 Quayclean Hcp –  1800m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 15. Overberg ($8)

2nd: 2. Onpicalo ($10)

3rd: 5. Magic Consol ($4.60)

4th: 3. Jacquinot Bay ($17)

Summary: Tough one to finish off, and strange to have a 1800m race as the finale, but happy to forgive Overberg off a bad run on a tricky track at the Valley last time. Prior to that he ran three really competitive races. Stays down in the weights and can finally break through here. Onpicalo loves Caulfield and loves the cut out of the ground. This race looks suitable. Magic Consol is in great nick this time in and his last two runs put him right in the mix here. Happy to throw Jacquinot Bay in multiples, quaddies etc as he’s one of our favourites, and he will relish a softer track here.


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