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Caulfield Saturday – Best Bets and Race by Race Preview

Fri, Apr 28, 12:59pm by Senior Writer

Caulfield steps up again to host a nine-race meeting on Saturday, with the Thoroughbred Club Cup the main event.

Eight years ago, a two-year-old filly called Black Caviar won on this raceday but I wouldn’t be thinking any of these are going to go 25 starts unbeaten. That was her second start ever in a race and she won by six lengths to signify that she would be an absolute star.

Our Best Bet of the day comes up in Race 6 No.1 Artie Dee Two. He was super impressive winning at Moonee Valley last time but is five weeks between runs, so there is a query. Behind him that day was stablemate Ken’s Dream, who came out next start to win at Caulfield and was second again last week.

I’ve love backing these Darren Weir horses once they’ve started winning in a preparation and this guy looks to have considerable upside as he’s only has seven starts. He loves the 1200m and won’t be worried about the wet track. Currently he’s $5 in race where he has a clear edge on his rivals.

Our Best Value is Race 1 No.2 Fomo.
WATCH: Our Preview of Caulfield on Saturday

Fomo steps out to the 1800m for the first time just second up in his campaign but looks a very talented staying type. He resumed over 1400m on a heavy track at Cranbourne and showed some real toughness to record a win. He drops 1.5kg in weight despite going back to his own age in this race and I’m not convinced that he’s up against much opposition here.

His trainers thought enough of him to run him in a Sandown Guineas last campaign. He also gets an inside barrier which could be advantageous early in the day. At the moment, he is $7.50 and I think the each way, with $2.35 fixed available the place, is a good bet.

Here’s our race by race preview for the Caulfield meeting,

Race 1 Em Jensen Funerals Hcp -1800m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Fomo ($7.50)

2nd: 1. Soju Warrior ($2.70)

3rd: 4. Judelly ($4)

4th: 5. Red Right Hand ($18)

Summary: As mentioned earlier, Fomo looks a nice price in this and think he can go on and win some races. Confident in him here. Soju Warrior is the obvious danger, who has had a good campaign. Judelly strolled home by ten lengths last time, and can figure here up in class. Red Right Hand looks great value or a horse who has been in good solid form this time in.

Race 2 Sky High Mt Dandenong Hcp – 2000m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. Anaheim ($4.60)

2nd: 4. Hursley ($6)

3rd: 6. Overberg ($13)

4th: 2. Goathland ($9.50)

Summary: Good competitive race here, but think Anaheim will like being back in class here after a couple of runs in Sydney G1s. He does take on the older horses, but the 2000m looks entirely suitable and a win would be much deserved. Hursley has been close-up without winning the past three races and has a strong record at Caulfield. Overberg has had a good campaign and was narrowly beaten last time. Gets to 2000m for the first time, but that doesn’t concern. Goathland made big strides last campaign and could show-up here first-up off a shortish spell.

Race 3 No Fuss Events Hire Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 11. Mr Sneaky ($2.25)

2nd: 6. Dane Thunder ($8.50)

3rd: 4. Baby Don’t Cry ($13)

4th: 8. Lauchetti ($8)

Summary: Chase The Horizon was our pick, but he’s out. Mr Sneaky was very good winning last time, but there is a query over the eight weeks between runs. He’ll need to be sharp to win this off that break. Dane Thunder had little luck first-up and can figure at double figure odds with better fortune this time around. Baby Don’t Cry is a good wet-tracker who won well at Bendigo two back and can measure up here, while Lauchetti looks a promising type.

Race 4 Changing Places Real Estate Hcp – 1100m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 4. Snitty Kitty ($5.50)

2nd: 2. Moonlites Choice ($4.20)

3rd: 5. Soviet Secret ($17)

4th: 1. Merriest  ($4)

Summary: Snitty Kitty looks a progressive filly having taken a good Yarra Valley win and franked that with a good second this track and distance last time.  Drawn inside, she should lead them and could prove very hard to run down. Moonlites Choice was a great run in that same Caulfield race and if she can settle a little closer this time is an obvious threat. Soviet Secret, who has a solid soft track record, will give a much better showing second-up. Merriest was good winning alst time and has to be included.

Race 5 Thoroughbred Club Cup – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Doubt I’m Dreaming ($1.60)

2nd: 4. Seized ($7.50)

3rd: 2. Al Passem ($17)

4th: 5. Indernile ($14)

Summary: Doubt I’m Dreaming look an absolute star winning first-up at the Valley. A repeat of that performance will see him salute here, but feel he’s a little short given his lack of exposure to wet tracks. Seized was very good from the back last time and has race experience on his side with three good runs this time in. Al Passem showed some real heart kicking back to win last time and looks generous odds for a horse unbeaten in two starts. Indernile’s first campaign was very good and he then followed the favourite here home in a trial last time, so that measures up well.

Race 6 Next Payments Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Artie Dee Two ($5)

2nd: 10. Bord de Gain ($9.50)

3rd:  4. Leotie ($9.50)

4th: 9. Widgee Turf ($5.50)

Summary: Good quality three-year-old race and happy to be with what I suspect is the best horse in the race in Artie Dee Two. His form lines up well here and the only worry is the time between runs, but happy to be on him, especially at $5. Bord Du Gain was very good at Bendigo and two subsequent winners have come out of that race. He looks good odds as does Leotie, who only needs to find her best to be competitive with these. Widgee Turf is a massive watch first up.

Race 7 LU Simon Builders Hcp – 1100m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 6. Miss Vista ($3.40)

2nd: 10. Grey Street ($4.60)

3rd: 2. Estaminet ($12)

4th: 1. Pretty Possum ($23)

Summary: Sure to be plenty of speed here and Miss Vista will be right at the point end of that. She was very good first up, winning well and while Grey Street made late ground on her, I can’t see him bridging the gap here, despite the heavy track. He is the main threat. Estaminet is a twice first-up winner who can certainly show up here and figure at her best. I would never write off Pretty Possum, who is a good speedy mare, who has been freshened for this.

Race 8 Thoroughbred Club 50th Anniversary Next Year Hcp – 1440m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Charmed Harmony ($3.60)

2nd: 10. Top Me Up ($6.50)

3rd: 7. Whistle Baby ($4.80)

4th: 4. Zebulon ($5.50)

Summary: This is a really strong race, with so many different variables, that it makes it very hard to pick. In a perfect world, Charmed Harmony goes to the front and kicks clear for a ninth win in this distance range. But he will be challenged for the front by an in form Top Me Up, who can benefit from a sit outside of the lead as well. Whistle Baby’s last two runs have been excellent without winning, and she can figure here with a good run. Zebulon is a real star at his best, but is 12 months between runs. Then you have the two Weir runners from WA, Heart Starter and Star Exhibit. Whatever happens here, follow the form, there will be winners everywhere from this one.

Race 9 Treasury Wine Estates Hcp – 1600m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 9. Curragh ($3.70)

2nd: 11. Fastnet Latina ($3)

3rd: 3. Rhythm To Spare ($21)

4th: 1. Onpicalo ($16)

Summary: Another quality race, with some in-form gallopers meeting, namely Curragh and Fastnet Latina. Curragh gets the nod after chasing home the in-form Sadaqa last time. He’s a progressive and versatile horse, who looks well placed and well weighted here. Fastnet Latina is building a picket fence and must be respected, although this is a step up. Rhythm To Spare‘s second up form is better than it looks on paper, and interestingly, he gets out to 1600m on a favourably soft track. Big odds for a horse with his record. Onpicalo also loves the cut out of the track and has a strong Caulfield record. Again, well over the odds.


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