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Caulfield – Saturday July 15 – Preview and Best Bets

Fri, Jul 14, 1:45pm by Senior Writer

It may be the middle of July, but we are seeing the first signs of spring in the quality of the main race at Caulfield on Saturday, the Sir John Monash Stakes.

The top two in the market in that race are all very interesting horses. We’ve got the lightly-raced, but highly talented Supido and we’ve got the return of Lord of the Sky, who nearly beat Chautauqua early in his career. We would have had the Western Australian Chocolate Holic, who comes to Darren Weir, having won seven from 11 back home as well, but he was a raceday scratching.

Our Best Bet comes up in the opening race. No.3 Data Point.

You may remember that I made Data Point my best bet a couple of weeks ago, only for him to be scratched on raceday. This race looks easy than the race he was scratched from a couple of weeks back.

He also gets a much better barrier, barrier four, this time, meets moderate opposition and races at his best distance, 1400m, where he has had six starts for two wins and four seconds.

Is the four weeks between runs a worry? Maybe, and that’s why we are getting the $3 about him, but I’m happy to take that against this lot. He beat his major rival in the market here, Orient Line by nearly two lengths two starts back and even though he is slightly worse off at the weights that does not concern me.
WATCH: Our Preview of Caulfield on Saturday

This looks a perfectly suitable race to build up that win percentage which at this stage stands at just 16 per cent.

Best value comes up in the final race, No.3, Tried and Tired. Now, we missed the very early price here. When markets were posted on Wednesday, this guy was $19, and that was snapped up quick as a wink and he is now $13, so clearly I’m not alone in finding this guy at a decent price.

His form has been really, really good this campaign without winning. Three starts back, he was third in a Listed race down the Flemington straight at huge odds. He then sat deep in a good race at Swan Hill and struggled, but bounced back to form last time when beaten just 1.3 lengths in a very strong form race last time.

Just ahead of him that day was Tshahitsi, the Tasmanian horse who was so impressive winning the Winter Championship at Flemington last week.

What I do like about this guy is that he will go forward and will settle in the first three or four. If he does that and gets a nice run, he can be right there in the finish. He also likes the 1400m here at Caulfield, having won once and been placed twice in four starts at this track and distance.

Here’s our race by race preview for Caulfield Saturday.

Race 1 Troa Jockeys’ Trust – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Data Point ($2.90)

2nd: 5. Orient Line ($4.80)

3rd: 9. Pakaya Prince ($7.50)

4th: 10. Emoji ($13)

Summary: Relatively straight forward start. Data Point should be winning this if he puts his best foot forward. Given his talent, this race is at his mercy, with only query being the four weeks between runs. Orient Line has had a really consistent campaign and was finally rewarded with a win last time. Will run well again, but not convinced he can beat the favourite. Pakaya Prince impressed leading all the way last time, but concerned that the track won’t be soft enough. Still worth throwing in as is in-form Emoji.

Race 2 John & Denise Cobcroft Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Bandipur ($2.80)

2nd: 10. Aljawzaa ($5.50)

3rd: 2. Takemehomeminister ($19)

4th: 14. Fox Swift ($13)

Summary: Two-year old race with four first starters which means there is a bit of a query on this race. Of the ones we have seen, Bandipur was very impressive winning by eight lengths at Moe and is the one to beat. Aljawzaa was good on her return to the track last time and can take improve and contend. Takemehomeminister was a tough winner at Bendigo last time and looks very nice odds, as does Fox Swift, who was solid on debut and can improve her at her home track.

Race 3 Henry Dwyer Racing Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Moonlites Choice ($4)

2nd: 4. Moonlover ($8.50)

3rd: 2. O’Rachael ($16)

4th: 6. Abriola ($6)

Summary: Fairly confident in Moonlites Choice here. She didn’t have a lot of luck in a good race last time, and before that won a decent form race at Swan Hill. Should have the measure of these as long as she gets a clear run. Moonlover looks a much better horse on top of the ground and should get that on Saturday. O’Rachael comes south for Chris Waller and has some quality NZ form on her CV. Abriola has impressed winning her past two.

Race 4 Laming Racing hcp – 2000m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Kiwia ($2.25)

2nd: 4. Royal Order ($7)

3rd: 11. Windbern ($13)

4th: 6. Meat Traders ($11)

Summary: Kiwia was a good winner over this course and distance last time and although she goes up slightly in weight, a repeat performance should she her win this one. Royal Order was a little disappointing in that race last time, but did overrace and so had excuses and loses the blinkers. Can be more competitive with better racing manners. Windbern led in that race and while she faded late, a more patient ride could make her a contender here. Meat Traders comes off a different formline but has bene very good three runs this campaign.

Race 5 National Jockeys Trust Plate – 1700m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Coldstone ($6.50)

2nd: 5. Show a Star ($4.20)

3rd: 4. Lucky Paddy ($13)

4th: 1. Onpicalo ($6.50)

Summary: Coldstone was rewarded for his good campaign with a win here two weeks ago and he can repeat over he slightly longer distance here. Is drawn the inside barrier again and will be produced late. Show a Star has been paced through his campaign and is never far away. Has a good Caulfield record and is a major threat. Lucky Paddy was a little disappointing last time but is not far away from stepping up his performance this campaign. Onpicalo saves his best for Caulfield.

Race 6 TAB supports Jockeys Trust Hcp – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 6. Enigman ($3.80)

2nd: 1. Revolving Door ($4.40)

3rd: 5. Valliano ($8)

4th: 2. Nikitas ($6.50)

Summary: Interestingly, seven of these clashed over the same distance here two weeks ago, with My Paisann getting the money. Really liked Enigman‘s run in that race. This horse has a very bright future and will improve again fourth up into this. Revolving Door’s two runs this campaign have been excellent and he’s right in this again. Valliano sat deep last time and was beaten less than two lengths, and from an inside barrier should get a better run this time. Nikitas ran out of room late and has to be included as well in what is a tough race.

Race 7 PFD Food Services Sir John Monash Stakes – 1100m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 7. Supido ($1.80)

2nd: 1. Lord Of The Sky ($4.50)

3rd: 8. Cashed ($23)

4th: 3. Divine Ten ($18)

Summary: Supido looks a special now with Chocolate Holic scratched. He put together six consecutive wins early last year, but hasn’t won in four runs since, albeit three of them were in Group 1 company. Anywhere near his best here, and he should be winning. Lord of the Sky loves Caulfield, but not the 1100m. Will wait and watch on him but he is a clear second pick. Cashed the best of the rest, while former HK galloper Divine Ten is worth watching.

Race 8 LUCRF Supports Jockeys Hcp – 1200m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Sullivan Bay ($3.90)

2nd: 3. Forgeress ($10)

3rd: 1. Beatniks ($6.50)

4th: 6. Divine Chills ($3.70)

Summary: This race has fallen nicely for Sullivan Bay, with two of her main rivals scratched. She was very good two weeks ago, getting a deserved win and can back up here with another win. The horse than can improve out of that race is Forgeress, who has a great third-up record and drops down in the weights further with a claim. Beatniks has been freshened off some reasonable runs in listed company in Queensland. That form measures up well to this. Divine Chills has been very good this campaign, winning mid-week last time. Can also measure up.

Race 9 OTI Racing Hcp – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Tried and Tired ($13)

2nd: 8. Schism ($3.30)

3rd: 9. Invinzabeel ($9)

4th: 13. Here To There ($7.50)

Summary: As mentioned earlier, keen on Tired and Tired to get a deserved win here. His campaign has been very good and his run last time measures up very well on form. Schism has gone back-to back in mares company and takes on the boys here. That’s a challenge. Invinzabeel had issues last time but going on his run three back, can win this. Here To There’s form is also very strong.

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