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Flemington Sat June 24 – Race by Race Preview & Best Bets

Fri, Jun 23, 12:58pm by Senior Writer

We’ve had some monster price winners salute in Melbourne over the past month, so hopefully we can steer you into a winner at Flemington on Saturday.

My best comes up in Race 8. No.9 Cannyescent. This four-year-old from the Hayes stables Is looking for his third straight win and I’m pretty confident he can notch it here.

He does rise into open class, but as a result gets a massive weight drop, which means including the claim for in-form apprentice Beau Mertens, he carries seven kilos less than he did when winning impressively at Sandown last time.

He has got one horse to beat in the race, Tshahitsi and has a huge weight advantage on him. I really like this horse, he just keeps on winning and at $3.60 is a very attractive price.

My best value of the day comes up in Race 7 No.2 Lucky Paddy.

WATCH: Our Preview of the weekend’s racing

Lucky Paddy comes into this race off a reasonable first-up here a couple of weeks back, I expect him to make substantial improvement second-up in a lower class race. Last time in, he improved substantially second-up to run a good third in a race at Moonee Valley on a soft track. Some rain is expected before Saturday and in five runs on rain-affected ground, he has never been further back than fourth.

Brad Rawiller gets the ride and you can expect him to push forward from barrier eight. His recent wins have been when he has gone forward.  In early markets, he is outstanding value at $18.

In terms of the Tatts Tiara, I’m on Danish Twist. Kris Lees has freshened this mare off a couple of good runs during the Sydney autumn, including a third in a Group 1.

When you compare her to the $3.30 favourite here In Her Time, you’ll see there’s not much between them historically. In fact of their three meetings, she has beaten In Her Time home twice. Danish Twist is $16, despite drawing much better and for me is much better value.

Here’s our race by race preview of Flemington on Saturday.

Race 1 Gippsland Region Hcp – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 4. River Jewel ($9)

2nd: 7. Evil Cry ($11)

1st: 3. Egyptian Bullet ($8)

2nd: 1. American Genius ($26)

3rd: 2. Royal Symphony ($2.10)

4th: 10. Wired ($20)

Summary: Very difficult two-year-old race to kick things off. My initial top two selections have been scratched.  Will go with Egyptian Bullet, who has won her past two for an in-form stable and can contend in this. American Genius seems huge odds for a horse coming off a good maiden win last time. Royal Symphony impressed at Pakenham last time and has been heavily supported into favouritism, while Wired has been super consistent and is good odds.

WATCH: River Jewel win at Swan Hill 

Race 2 Barwon South West Region Hcp – 1100m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 4. Invincible Al ($5)

2nd: 2. Ken’s Dream ($7)

3rd: 6. Overstep ($8)

4th: 1. Ashlor ($6)

Summary: I’ve repeatedly said that I’m wary about this 3yo off-season sprint races and this one is no exception. I did find Invincible Al last time however, and happy to be on him here again. It was a storming win and there is no reason he won’t hold his form. Ken’s Dream has broken a few hearts this campaign, but is never far away and might finally get a race to suit here. Overstep clearly loves the Flemington straight and she is among the chances here again here. Ashlor has been in good form in Adelaide and that measures up well to this race.

WATCH: Invincible Al win 

Race 3 Loddon Mallee Region Hcp – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 6. Give Us A Go ($13)

2nd: 5. Schism ($8)

3rd: 1. Tsaritsa ($6)

4th: 12. Don’tbabylon ($11)

Summary: These races don’t get any easier and this mares race is an absolute raffle. Have gone for the value here with Give Us A Go. This mare loves Flemington where she has run four times for two placings and a fourth in better races than this and she can figure in this from a nice barrier. Schism has had a really good campaign and pushes forward here and may give them something to chase. Tsaritsa comes south off strong form and can measure up to these. Don’tbabylon was super tough on the pace winning at Sandown last time.

WATCH: Give Us A Go run third at Flemington

Race 4 Grampians Region Hcp – 2000m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Duke of Ellington ($7)

2nd: 14. Ashlee Marie ($7)

3rd: 7. Alamonteel ($11)

3rd: 5. Sayed ($7.50)

4th: 15. Penryn Pearl ($14)

Summary: Even bunch of stayers, but have opted for the quality here with Duke of Ellington. His first Australian campaign has been very good highlighted by a strong win over this track and distance three starts back. Back to Flemington is highly suitable for him as is the 2kg claim for Ben Thompson. Ashlee Marie was a good winner last time out and on the strength of that and a nice weight, can figure in the finish here. Sayed is lightly raced and highly promising and will get a nice run up on the pace, while Penryn Pearl was a strong Sandown winner last time out.

WATCH: Duke of Ellington win earlier this campaign 

Race 5 North East Region Hcp – 2520m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 4. Cougar Express ($10)

2nd: 6. Hursley ($9.50)

3rd: 1. Megablast ($5)

4th: 5. Falago ($8.50)

Summary: Another very even race where tactics will come into play, Cougar Express went super fast last time over the shorter distance and did very well to box on for fourth beaten less than two lengths. Has won over 2300m, so the 2520m is not too far a stretch and will give them plenty to catch. Hursley steps out to this distance for the first time but is ready after a long campaign where he has been very competitive. Megablast was just beaten last week but second-up in Australia and up in distance should suit him, while Falago won well last time and these Weir stayers always hold their form.

WATCH: Cougar Express run fourth at Moonee Valley

Race 6 Country Achiever Herald Egan Hcp – 1100m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 9. Lake Como ($7)

2nd: 15. Ability ($4.40)

3rd: 3. Husson Eagle ($8.50)

4th: 4. Mighty Like ($21)

Summary: Some in-form sprinters in this one, and will stick with Lake Como, who has been a three-time winner down the Flemington straight this campaign and you’d be foolish to think he couldn’t do it again. Ability was super impressive winning first-up and has an excellent second-up record. Looks progressive. Husson Eagle is a good straight horse who didn’t quite get the race to suit last time. Expect him to be charging home late out wide. Mighty Like has a brilliant first-up record (5 starts for three wins) albeit usually at slightly longer distances but is certainly the value in the race.

WATCH: Lake Como win at Flemington

Race 7 David Bourke Memorial Hcp – 1600m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Lucky Paddy ($17)

2nd: 1. Victory Downs ($7)

3rd: 3. By The Grace ($18)

2nd: 5. Elite Tiger ($7)

3rd: 6. Rewarding Effort ($3)

4th: 7. Hot Ruby ($4.60)

Summary: Plenty of chances here, but expecting a much-improved performance from Lucky Paddy second-up. As mentioned earlier, he has a good second-up form and we can expect to see him settle more forward in this race. Elite Tiger will push forward on to the pace and this looks a good race for him. Rewarding Effort will improve significantly third-up from a nice barrier. Hot Ruby has been very solid this campaign and is also worht considering,

Race 8 Brian Beattie Hcp – 1400m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 9. Cannyescent ($3.60)

2nd: 1. Royal Rapture ($9.50)

3rd: 2. Tshahitsi ($3.70)

4th: 10. Invizabeel ($8)

Summary: Our best comes up in this one on what is a bloody hard day. Cannyescent’s form is excellent and I feel he has been brilliantly placed here, getting in with a feather weight and I am very confident in his prospects here. Royal Rapture continued his love for Flemington with a good third last time. He’s great each-way odds when you look at his best form. He won on this day last year. Tshahitsi was utterly dominant winning last time and you’d be a fool to think he couldn’t win this. I just feel at the weights, Cannyescent should have his measure. Intrigued that Invinzabeel comes south for this and he is the one I’m wary of.
WATCH: Cannyescent win at Sandown

Race 9 Bay and Ranges Region Hcp – 1600m

(Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. The Passage ($8)

2nd: 1. Urban Ruler ($11)

3rd: 2. Widgee Turf ($5.50)

4th: 14. Thaad ($17)

Summary: And we are back to the raffles to finish things off. The Passage is the top pick as he’s had a good campaign and I’m confident he can hold that form heading into this race. Urban Ruler was super impressive winning here last time. The wide barrier is a concern, but if he can get cover form out there can figure. Widgee Turf is on trial at the distance but won impressively last time over the 1400m. Thaad is at a big price coming off some reasonable runs north of the Murray and may be the blowout.

WATCH: The Passage run second at Moonee Valley

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