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Flemington Saturday – Best Bets, Odds and Preview

Fri, Dec 16, 2:18pm by Senior Writer

So we are back at Flemington this week for the second week in a row, with a nine-race card which is not big on value, but I’m confident we should be able to find a few winners.

The depth is just not there at this time of year, but those horses who are in from tend to hold their form, meaning, that the form itself is fairly predictable in my experience.

While I think there are three or four really good winning chances on the card, I think Miss Wonderland (Race 3 No.1) is the Best Bet on the day.

Now, she’s already $1.80, so she’s not terrific odds, but I think she’s close to a good thing. She bolted in at her first start back in June and then resumed with an outstanding third place in a very good race during the Flemington carnival. She’s been freshened up with a title at a race at the Magic Millions in mind.

She runs here, then heads to Sydney for a run and then goes to her Grand Final on the Gold Coast on January 14. She looks a class above her rivals here and the market reflects that.

I have gone for R6 No.12 Runsati, as my value of the day. He is around the $8.50 mark in early markets.

Runsati’s Flemington straight form is very solid, having run two good placings in straight races during the winter. He resumed in a very hot race here over the Melbourne Cup carnival and did well to finish within six lengths of the winner. He then sat on a fast pace at the Valley and did well to finish third. With a light weight, and conditions to suit, I can see Runsati being right in the finish here third-up. This is certainly more suitable than his two previous runs.
WATCH: Our Preview of Flemington Saturday

Here’s my full race by race preview of Flemington on Saturday.

Race 1 – Christmas Season Hcp – 1100m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. American Genius ($2.70)

2nd: 6. Totten ($4.40)

3rd: 3. King’s Authority ($5)

4th: 5. Regal Embrace ($8.50)

Betting: American Genius $2.80-$2.70, Dr Homer $$51-$41

Summary: Eight first starters here, so plenty of unknowns. American Genius is the known and he has been very solid in his two starts to date, with a pair of thirds. Looks a good chance to break through here given his fitness and experience edge on his rivals. Totten has been well supported and little wonder given he won a recent Rosehill trial and is out of the O’Shea yard who have a great strike rate with their two-year old colts. King’s Authority is from a good yard and will be well educated, while it’s a similar story for Regal Embrace.

Confidence: Outside of the toppy, we are pretty much guessing. So we’ll stick with what we know and we know American Genius is a quality galloper.

Race 2 – Beachside Hcp – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Mossbeat ($6.50)

2nd: 5. Labdien ($7)

3rd: 3. Lady Selkirk ($5)

4th: 4. Feeling The Love ($8.50)

Betting: Jacqui’s Joy $7-$6.50, Tycoon Beauty $21-$19

Summary: A very even bunch of mares, but believe Mossbeat could break through for a deserved win here. She doesn’t win often (2 from 31) but overcame a wide run to finish third, just 1.1 lengths from them last start. This is her class of race. Labdien had lost a bit of form in Sydney and the switch south could see her get back near her best. Lady Selkirk can be forgiven for her poor first-up run and she is a second-up winner as well as a two-time winner at this track. She’ll improve here. Feeling the Love was just behind Mossbeat last time so we’ll throw her in.

Confidence: Think Mossbeat is a good each way bet here. She has raced most of her life in better races, so can forgive the strike rate.

Race 3 – Isca Hcp – 1100m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Miss Wonderland ($1.80)

2nd: 4. Sister Kitty Mac ($13)

3rd: 7. Siren’s Reward ($8)

3rd: 6. Millinery ($6)

4th: 2. Ponte Roma ($6.50)

Betting: Miss Wonderland ($1.90-$1.80), Divertente ($13-$12), Millinery ($7-$6), Airone ($21-$15)

Summary: Miss Wonderland looks a top class filly based on her two runs to date. She was excellent down the straight on Oaks Day and with Ciaron Maher eyeing the Magic Millions, you feel she should be good enough to beat these.  Sister Kitty Mac is nice odds for a filly who is winning form and is going places. Millinery looks speedy and will lead a long way in this, while Ponte Roma is the other one worht considering ina  field that has fallen away.

Confidence: Very confident in Miss Wonderland‘s ability and the fact she will win this race.

Race 4 Planet Ruler Hcp – 1400m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Snitzson ($4.50)

2nd: 6. Styleman ($7)

3rd: 3. Sassoon ($11)

4th: 5. Soho Ruby ($7)

Betting: Set The Bar High ($17-$15), Atlantic Express ($41-$31)

Summary: Snitzson was dominant at Pakenham last time and looks a good horse after just three starts. Would expect him to be too strong for these. Styleman has had a few gaps in his runs this campaign but his last run when third at MV was very good. This looks a good race for him. Sassoon was a big winner at his first start and has obvious talent, while Soho Ruby has put together two good wins and warrants strong consideration.

Confidence: Highly confident in Snitzson’s ability based on that Pakenham win. A repeat of that effort will see him victorious here.

Race 5 – Skipton Hcp – 2500m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Puccini ($4.60)

2nd: 3. Boom Time ($3)

3rd: 7. Crafty Cruiser ($19)

3rd: 9. Four Carat ($10)

4th: 2. Lord Van Percy ($4.60)

Betting: Puccini ($5-$4.60)

Summary: These 2500m races always offer plenty of intrigue and feel it’s Puccini‘s turn to win one after a super consistent campaign. His run at Pakenham was brave considering he overraced and went to the front far too early. Better manners here and he should be winning this. Boom Time looks a talented stayer but his lone 2500m was down the track in the 2015 SA Derby. May need this run at this distance.  Will forgive Four Carat’s 3000m failure last time, this may be a more suitable distance, while Lord van Percy is building towards a win slowly.

Confidence: Confident in Puccini’s form. Does have a good horse’s weight but he’s shouldn’t have too trouble carrying it.

Race 6 Fiesta Star Hcp -1100m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 12. Runsati ($8.50)

2nd: 1. General Truce ($26)

3rd: 7. Decision Time ($19)

4th: 10. Rock ‘n’ Gold ($8)

4th: 4. Odyssey Moon ($4.80)

Betting: Grane $41 into $34), Shakespearean Lass ($9-$8), Danuki ($9-$8)

Summary: Reasonably even 1100m sprint race, but like Runsati on his last run and his couple of strong runs down the Flemington straight during the winter. This is his type of race and love Linda Meech’s form at the moment. General Truce is not far off an improved performance and is a noted straight performer who is big odds. Intrigued by Decision Time’s appearance here after a freshen-up. He’s a nice horse and could show up in this. Rock ‘n’ Gold is a model of consistency and will be in the finish again. Odyssey Moon also likes the Flemington straight and is a big watch first-up.

Confidence: Really like the value about Runsati in this race. Will be backing him each way and having some multiples around Decision Time and General Truce.

Race 7 – Tauto Hcp – 2000m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. Gallic Chieftain ($2.60)

2nd: 6. Encosta Line ($14)

3rd: 2. Honorius ($51)

4th: 5. Hipparchus ($8.50)

4th: 11. Flying Light ($8)

Betting: Gallic Chieftain ($3.20 to $2.60), Flying Light ($9.50-$8), Prima ($19-$17)

Summary: Punters have gone hard at Gallic Chieftain and little wonder considering the horse he beat last start strolled in last week. He’s a promising stayer in goof off-season form. The spells M-O-N-E-Y this time of year. Encosta Line hasn’t been ridden too well his past two. Would expect a stronger ride from Jamie Mott here on the seven-day back-up. Forget Honorius‘s Traralgon Cup run and he looks gross overs at $51, while Flying Light’s‘ three runs this campaign have been very good.

Confidence: Gallic Chieftain looks to be on the improve. If he steps it up from his last win, he should salute again here.

Race 8 – Chanteclair Hcp – 1600m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Mihany ($3.30)

2nd: 1. Kenjorwood ($6)

3rd:  2. Burning Front ($4.40)

3rd: 4. Leica Day ($15)

4th: 5. Kourkam ($26)

Betting: Burning Front ($4.60 – $4.40), Un de Sceaux ($17-$15).

Summary: Mihany saluted for us as Best Bet two weeks ago and was close to our Best Bet this week. Can’t believe he’s better than $3 given his record at the Flemington 1600m. He’ll go to the front and should prove too strong. Kenjorwood chased him home last time and thinking he’ll do the same again. Leica Day is fresh into this, which he does tend to like and he could show up, while Kourkam is a big watch

Confidence: Mihany is one of those horses you keep backing and keep winning on. Hard to see him getting beaten here.

Race 9 – Scamanda Hcp – 1100m

Tips (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. Wolf Cry ($3.40)

2nd: 3. Angry Gee ($7)

3rd: 6. Roman Fizz ($13)

4th: 4. Bon Rocket ($10)

Betting: Betting impacted by multiple scratchings. Favourite Stellar Collision is $3.60 to $2.50.

Summary: Wolf Cry resumes for a new stable after an operation for bone chips and after a couple of trials, I’m willing to back him first-up here. Angry Gee’s first-up run was excellent and he has a good second-up record. Roman Fizz has won his past two by narrow margins, like the form around him, while Bon Rocket is a danger off a short spell.

Confidence: Wolf Cry’s best is better than most of these. Confident he can produce something near that first-up.

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