Fri, Aug 8, 12:04pm by Daryl Curnow
Good fields on display at Flemington with the $150,000 Aurie’s Star Handicap taking centre stage. We provide a full betting guide with the latest markets, up-to-date odds and free tips. Race one starts with a Rating 90 Handicap over 1000 metres.
Splash Of Moet is fresh up for trainer Peter Moody after bleeding last time out at Moonee Valley last March. The five-year-old mare has an excellent fresh record of three wins, one placing from four starts and she’s a three time winner over the sprint distance. The daughter of Dash For Cash is a four-time winner from 10 starts and she is nicely weighted at only 54kg. Her opening quote of $4 has been cut to $3.50 and she looks like a strong bet to start the day with.
Couldn’t Agreemore is also fresh up for Adelaide trainer Phillip Stokes. The five-year-old last run in the Group Three D. C McKay Stakes at Morphettville where he ran last but his form prior consisted of a second placing at Caulfield. He is well bred by Not A Single Doubt and his fresh up record consists of two wins from three starts, including a 2.25-length win five starts back. He runs much better on a good track so the weather will play it’s part and he has drawn the inside barrier which isn’t always an advantage down the Flemington straight.
Krity Lee’s debut run in Melbourne couldn’t have gone any worse. The Chris Waller-trained mare raced very flat and finished 7.1 lengths behind the winner in 11th place. The five-time winner was in very good form in Sydney but racing left handed for the first time seemingly tripped her up. With that experience under her belt, we’re expecting an improved effort but she will need to be on her best game to win over this distance. The bookmakers opened her at $7 and she has drifted out slightly to $7.50.
Recommended bet: Splash Of Moet to win ($3.50) at Sportingbet.com.au
Eclair Samba has been well bet in the market from his opening quote of $3.20 to $3. The Phillip Stokes-trained gelding has an impressive record of five wins, four placings from only 12 starts and he was game in defeat at this track last time out. The son of Ekraar has had four starts this campaign and is in fit order – this distance also plays into his hands with five starts for three wins and two placings. He has never won on either a dead or slow track but he’s a multiple winner on good and heavy so the track conditions won’t be a negative factor.
Count Encosta is getting up in the age ranks, now an eight-year-old, but he’s still running good races as his form suggests. The Darren Weir-trained gelding ran second last time out at Moonee Valley and he’s backing up a week later in this. The son of Encosta De Lago has won and placed at this distance but never at Flemington, however the wide open track should suit his running style. Punters aren’t deterred and they have bet him in from his opening price of $3.50 into $3.20 and now he’s back out a touch to $3.30.
Surpass looks like a nice each way bet at odds of $9 after opening at $8.50. The Michael Moroney-trained for New Zealander finished off nicely last start over 1800 metres at Caulfield and he’s now stepping up to the distance where he has won and placed from five starts. His two runs this campaign have been excellent but he usually prefers the sting out of the track and he might not get that here. He should be fit now and the 3kg allowance from Jordan Childs brings his weight to a nice 55kg.
Recommended bet: Eclair Samba to win ($3) at Sportsbet.com.au
The Peter Moody-trained Anfitriona was a last start winner at Caulfield in a $150,000 race. The four-year-old put in a very good run considering she was three wide in the open before working to the lead and fighting off all challengers. A run like that can either flatten a horse or make them stronger and we believe she will get stronger for it. Her weight increases slightly but she’s by Host and the rise in distance will suit her breeding wise. The punters are agreeing and her opening quote of $3.80 has been slashed already to $3.20.
Reckless Assassin was also a strong last start winner. The John Sadler-trained mare led for an easy three length win on this track. The daughter of Redoute’s Choice rises significantly in weight from 53.5kg to 56.5kg but she has carried big weights before and that shouldn’t worry her. Four of her five career wins have come on a good track and two of them came at this distance. Over the 2000 metres, drawing barrier one is a massive assist and she will get a nice run in transit. She is another who punters have climbed into – opening at $4 and now into $3.50.
High Design doesn’t boast the greatest form line but she is bred to see out the distance and she hasn’t been finishing too far down the track lately. The Steve Richards-trained mare is twice a winner from 17 starts and she has placed at this distance. She is by super sire High Chaparral and she only needs to improve slightly to feature in this. With the right run she can be a legitimate place chance at nice odds of $6.50 for the place.
Recommended bet: Reckless Assassin to win ($3.50) at Centrebet.com
The Leon Corstens-trained Coram has been on the drift in the market from $2.70 to $3.20 despite winning by six lengths last start at Geelong. The Sebring gelding was the $1.65 favourite on that occasion because his previous three starts came in either listed or group grades. The three-year-old finished fifth on debut in the Inglis 2YO worth $250,000 and then he disappointed in two tough runs since. This Rating 70 field is a big step down in class and he showed last time out what he can do at his own level. The extra distance will only suit and we would only advise not backing him if his price gets beyond $5.
A big market mover, to keep with the trend this meeting, is Fontein Ruby who opened at $7.50 and has now come in three points to $4.60. The Robert Smeardon-trained filly was a last start winner by 1.75 lengths over a nice two-year-old field at Sandown. She too has form in bigger races with a third in the $250,000 Inglis two-year-old at Mornington. She has a touch unlucky the start prior in the Blue Diamond Prelude when finishing seventh so she definitely has the class to overcome this field. The step up in distance should suit as she has been running on well and she is clearly the punters elect.
San Nicasio is an interesting runner from Peter Moody’s stables after winning in the country on debut. The son of Hard Spun was a 1.25-length winner and Moody was perhaps just giving him an easy hit out before tackling the bigger races. The three-year-old has drawn well in barrier three and more than capable jockey Vlad Duric will take the ride. There has been plenty of tote support – after opening at $9 he is now into $6 and the big market movers just keep rolling in.
Recommended bet: Coram to win ($3.20) at Sportingbet.com.au
Clevadude has been the subject of many big bets over the past week and the Darren Weir-trained runner will look to go back-to-back in this. The four-year-old kicked off his career in fine style but then he went off the boil quite dramatically. The son of Bel Esprit won three races over 1000 metres and he looked like an up-and-coming sprinting star but he lost that form severely. He hadn’t won for some time till last start where he won by two lengths. Weir is on fire so he should be ready to go again here and the punters have dropped his opening price of $6 into $4.50 with two large bets of over $1000 having been already placed.
The John Sadler-trained Charmed Harmony holds current favouritism at $4.20 despite failing last start at Flemington. The five-time winner from only 14 starts was a massive eight-length winner in his start prior at Sandown and the punters climbed in, making him the $1.75 odds on favourite last start. The distance proved too far for him and back to the 1200 metres will suit him better where he has won twice from five starts. Four of his wins have come on a dead track so he should get that to suit also.
Marwood is a lightly tried gelding for trainer Michael Moroney who disappointed as odds on favourite last time out at Sandown. The son of O’Reilly was well supported after winning earlier in July at Seymour and his form last campaign was good in behind some nice types. He finished sixth in the Group Three Guineas Prelude behind Eclair Big Bang before suffering a problem in the Caulfield Guineas when 13th behind Long John. Two of his three career wins have come on a heavy track where he is obviously better suited but he will close in this. Bookies have him safe at $5 after opening at $4.60.
Recommended bet: Charmed Harmony to win ($4.20) at TomWaterhouse.com
Eximius doesn’t have a grand form line but he has been elected the early $4.60 favourite. The Mick Price-trained gelding finished 10th in the Listed Winter Championship last start which wasn’t good but his effort for second three starts back on this course was good enough to include him in selections here. The five-year-old has a good course record of two wins and one placing from seven starts and the same goes for his distance record. It’s fair to say he’s horrible on good tracks, going eight starts for no wins or placings, but his form on rain affected ground is solid. Allow another chance if the track doesn’t get too hard.
Free Of Doubt continued the success of his sire Not A Single Doubt by winning last start at Flemington. The Jason Petch-trained gelding put in a hard fought effort to just nab fellow race rival Loot ‘n’ Run by a nose. The four-win gelding returned to good form after putting in a series of bad runs and he is likely to keep that form up on his favourite track. Craig Newitt rides at a luxury weight of only 54kg and that brings him right into contention.
Loot ‘n’ Run hasn’t done much wrong this campaign, except for win a race but the Jason Warren-trained gelding is knocking on the door. The six-year-old by Dash For Cash has pushed good horses such as Eigelstein and Pillar Of Creation close and he only narrowly went down last start to Free Of Doubt. His distance record is excellent with 20 starts for five wins and six placings and he should be respected in this at $6 after opening at $5.50.
Recommended bet: Eximius to win ($4.60) at Sportsbet.com.au
Tiger Tees is fresh up for trainer Joseph Pride and the seven-year-old usually finds form very quickly. The 11-time winner from 27 starts is coming off a last place finish in the BTC Cup at Group One level but his form prior was easily good enough to win this race. He finished third in the Group One All Aged Stakes behind the Japanese import Hana’s Goal and he was only 3.5 lengths behind Australia’s best horse Lankan Rupee in the Group One T.J Smith. His start prior was an excellent Group One win in The Galaxy and his fresh up form of four wins, two placings from eight starts isn’t exactly a worry. The odds available are rather generous at $3.60 considering he can win on any surface.
Sino Eagle made light work of the Handicap level last start at Caulfield and she is ready to take on the big guns now. The Peter Moody-trained mare has a good career record of six wins, four placings from 13 starts but she will have to jump from barrier 11 in this and that could be a problem. The five-year-old likes to get near the lead which means she will have to jump and run and this will be run at a quick tempo. Her course record is good and consists of one win and one placing from two starts. She is three times a winner at this distance and she has been specked in the betting from $6.50 to $6.
Zamorar put in a big finish to score a nose win last start on this track and he would have come on strongly since then. The David Bourne-trained gelding was fresh up and he was won second up, with his most recent starts coming in higher grades than this. He finished fourth in a Group Three at Caulfield last year and if he brings his best form he can compete at this level. It is tough to see him beating Tiger Tees but he’s a good place chance.
Recommended bet: Tiger Tees to win ($3.60) at Sportingbet.com.au
Girls On Film has had two starts this campaign for a second and a third placing. The Michael Moroney-trained mare has ability and she will get the assist of the inside barrier for this. The daughter of Pins fared well in this grade last time out at Caulfield and she shouldn’t find it too much harder, especially with the services of top rider Glen Boss in the saddle. Two starts at Flemington have yet to yield any success but she has been bet into $8.50 from her opening quote of $9.50.
Aliyana has been disappointing for some time but the Darren Weir-trained mare could find form quickly in this. The daughter of Zabeel has the breeding to suggest she has quality and her overall record of 18 starts for three wins and five placings isn’t overly bad. Her recent form however isn’t so flash with her last start seventh her best since winning at Warwick Farm in September last year. She has placed on this track and an improved run wouldn’t surprise at odds of $10.
Winta Chiller has been a very unlucky horse this campaign as she has had no room in the straight her last two runs. The five-year-old has been slow to jump which has put her in awkward positions, but she was fifth behind Sino Eagle last start after getting no gaps in the straight. The bigger track at Flemington will help her chances and she drops nicely in grade for this. She is up in weight from 54kg to 58kg but a senior rider hops on and that can make a big difference.
Recommended bet: Aliyana to place ($3.30) at Sportingbet.com.au
Amovatio has been a touch disappointing in his last two starts in Melbourne since winning back-to-back in Sydney. The Chris Waller-trained gelding has been running on well however and the extra distance to 1700 metres will suit perfectly. The son of Al Maher also drops down in weight from 58kg and that can often make a big difference. After three straight runs with apprentices on board, Michael Rodd takes over and punters have him safe at $4.80 after getting as low as $4.40.
Wrotham Heath was a nice last start winner on this track and he stays in the same grade for this. The Hayes/Dabernig-trained gelding is a three time winner from 15 starts and he proved too tough over 1800 metres last start but leading all the way. Dropping back in distance shouldn’t worry him and he surprisingly stays down in the weights at 54.5kg which makes him a well weighted horse at $5.50.
Rugged Cross went close in his Melbourne debut last time out at Caulfield when second behind Lord Durante. The Chris Waller-trained gelding got well back in the field before producing a solid finish and the big open track will play into his hands nicely. He likes to get out in the clear and make a sustained run down the outside so don’t be surprised to see him flash home late. He has been a touch easy in the market after opening at $6.50 and now out to $7.
Recommended bet: Amovatio to win ($4.80) at Centrebet.com
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