Fri, Aug 8, 6:28pm by Daryl Curnow
We’re providing a betting guide with odds and tips for the first four races at both Adelaide and Perth meetings for those punters who prefer racing west of Sydney and Melbourne. The first four races at each venue are very nice affairs with plenty of value runners taking part. The bookmakers also run an early quaddie on races 1-4 so make the most of that and place a bet on our recommended bets. We start with Perth races 1-4.
Palace Intruder won his first two career starts with his debut win coming by 4.75 lengths at Ascot. The Trevor Andrews-trained gelding then stuck with that grade second up where he won narrowly as a $1.70 odds on favourite. The son of Oratorio then took on the big boys in the 2YO Magic Millions at Ascot where he disappointed and finished 13th as a $3 favourite. That was perhaps too much too soon and he should be ready to fire for this from a good barrier draw of three. He opened at $3.20 but has drifted out slightly to $3.40.
Roebuck followed a similar path as the Neville Parnham-trained colt won his first two career starts. The three-year-old won on debut by 1.75 lengths before winning again at Ascot by three quarters of a length in front of the talented Jezpark. He then started the $3 favourite in the Listed Perth Stakes where he too disappointed in running eighth behind Jezpark. He’s drawn barrier one for this and that will be a massive assist as he got caught wide last start. He opened at $4.20 and got bet into $4 but has since drifted back out to his opening price.
Hold Your Tongue brings in good form having won on debut and then following that up with a fourth in the 2YO Magic Millions. The Dion Luciani-trained three-year-old ran better than expected last time out and he’s a great chance here if he replicates similar form. Barrier five is a concern over such a short race but classy jockey Jason Whiting rides and despite drifting in the market from $4.60 to $5, he’s still a good winning chance.
Recommended bet: Roebuck to win ($4.20) at Sportsbet.com.au
Lucciola is simply in the best form of her life after winning five straight with little Lucy Warwick in the saddle. Trained by her father Justin Warwick, Luck has guided the six-year-old to five straight effortless wins and she’s still at good odds to do so again. The tough grey mare won by half-a-length last start and that came in this same grade, yet she’s still paying $2.20 to win after opening at $2.10. She does rise in weight to 59kg but the apprentice claim takes that back down to 56kg and she can still win from there.
True Gold has been well supported in the market at $3 after running two consecutive placings. The Grant Williams-trained gelding ran second beind Lucciola two starts back and again second last start at Belmont. The six-year-old has done most of his racing here at Belmont having had 23 starts for three wins and nine placings and his distance record is solid. It won’t be easy to turn the tables on the favourite but the bookmakers are respecting him.
Verdello Blue is an eight-win gelding for trainer Toby Roney and he finished off nicely last start behind Gladstone and True Gold. The eight-year-old has won six times on this track with a further 13 placings so he feels right at home here. Over the 2000 metres he has a nice record of 11 starts for three wins and five placings but he too will have to turn the tables on Lucciola to figure in the finish as she has beaten him three times in his last five starts.
Recommended bet: Lucciola to win ($2.20) at Centrebet.com
Wink And A Nod is the firm favourite at $2.60 after winning half her career starts. The Derek Jones-trained mare won well fresh up at Belmont by 1.75 lengths and she has come on leaps and bounds in recent times. The five-year-old is a four time winner from eight starts with three of those coming in her last four starts. Her last race wasn’t run to suit but she still stormed home and she drops nicely in weight to 54.5kg for this. She looks like a nice bet at short odds.
Justin and Luck Warwick team up again with Songburg who is looking to return to winning form after a last start fourth when fresh. The daughter of Holy Roman Emperor is a five-time winner with three of them coming at Belmont and she has won twice second up with one placing. Her best form comes on a good track and she should get conditions to suit. Warwick takes a much needed 3kg off her back and that puts her at a very winnable weight. She has stayed even at her opening quote of $5.
Drifting slightly in the market is Soldier’s Lass who has had two fair runs in this preparation. The Daniel Morton-trained mare was in good form last campaign and she has taken on listed company in both runs this time in. The five-year-old was good enough to win the Listed Matchmaker at Ascot three runs back and that form would have her winning this. She has been only average this preparation but they both came in listed grade and she drops way back to rating 66 for this. Up in weight accounts for that but she’s classy at best and should be respected at odds of $7.
Recommended bet: Wink And A Nod to win ($2.60) at Sportingbet.com.au
The Western Australia Breeders winner Stagnite has come in from $3.80 to $3.20 following a fresh up fifth on this track last start. The Sharon Miller-trained gelding won all three starts last campaign including the listed breeders at Bunbury. The lightly tried son of Danehill Express is well drawn in barrier two and William Pike rides at a nice weight of only 54.5kg – he carried 59kg to win two starts back and he looks like a nice bet in this.
Silver Speck is fresh up for trainer Adam Durrant and he does have a good fresh record of three starts for two wins and one placing. However, his last two runs were an 11th and a 14th – he started the favourite in both and he hasn’t won in his last five starts. He is a four time winner from 11 starts and he needs to start showing that form that amassed him that record. Expect improvement in this.
New Time has won back-to-back races at Belmont and he’s dropping back from rating 78 grade for this. The Jim Taylor-trained gelding has had plenty of course experience with 24 starts for two wins and 12 placings. The seven-year-old is an eight time winner and he’s been around for awhile now but winning form is good form and he’s a decent chance at odds of $8 after opening at $9.
Recommended bet: Stagnite to win ($3.20) at Sportsbet.com.au
We kick the day off with a very short favourite in Herenoa at $1.70. The David Jolly-trained gelding deserves to be that short after running a nose second behind the talented Buddy Bundy in the listed Lightning Stakes last time out. The four-year-old was a winner at his only other start on debut by 2.5 lengths and he looks like a standout bet in this. His last start run was incredibly unlucky and he drops in weight for an easier race – it all leads to a very safe $1.70 to kick off proceedings at Morphettville.
Trueno should be respected after running Buddy Bundy to under a length on debut in maiden grade at this track. The Ryan Balfour-trained gelding then ran second behind a nice horse before finishing fifth last time out behind the well tried Charles In Charge who last raced in Melbourne. The son of Written Tycoon also won a trial leading into this and that will hold him in good order for this.
Wise Journey is a five-year-old for trainer Brian Mueller and it will pay to forgive his last start 10th. The gelding was unsuited by the heavy track and he was made to work far too hard up in front. He’s better suited here where he has won once and placed twice, including a perfect one-for-one at this distance. Sigrid Carr takes 3kg off his back and he has drawn perfectly in barrier one. Punters have kept him safe at his opening quote of $8.
Recommended bet: Herenoa to win ($1.70) at Sportsbet.com.au
So Hasty is the early favourite but the Darren Weir-trained mare has drifted out from $2.60 to $2.80. The daughter of Domesday is twice a winner but she has done the majority of her racing in Melbourne and her win at Caulfield four starts back should be good form for this. The four-year-old didn’t get much luck fresh up when seventh at Caulfield but she will strip fitter for this and despite her wide draw she should be competitive. Five starts back she won by eight lengths and that’s exactly what she is capable of.
Aces And Angels also arrives from Melbourne with good form for trainer L & S Hope. The six-year-old last ran at Caulfield where she was second behind Sino Eagle who is a strong home at Flemington on Saturday. Her start prior was an unlucky fifth behind Bloomingdale Miss as she was blocked in the straight and had no chance to win. Punters usually get burnt when she wins but her overall record is good and she will find this considerably easier. Her opening price of $4.80 has been cut to $4.20 and she will push for favouritism come race time.
Our Miss Bossy is a lightweight hope at 54kg. The Phillip Stokes-trained mare has had four runs this campaign for one placing but she is rarely far away and the drop in weight could make a winning difference. The daughter of Street Boss is usually the well backed favourite in lower grades and the big step up in class won’t be easy. Her best chance is stealing a lead in front and hoping the others get caught in traffic.
Recommended bet: So Hasty to win ($2.80) at Centrebet.com
The Eric Musgrove-trained Urban Explorer looks like another anchor in the early quaddie at odds of $1.95. The improving jumper won over the hurdles last start at Morphettville and his only defeats this season came to champion jumper Gotta Take Care and two starts back against Thubiaan. The seven-year-old has won and placed in two starts at this track and he can handle any track conditions. He’s a very progressive jumper having had seven starts for three wins and three placings over the hurdles and there doesn’t look to be any real threats in this field. He opened at good value odds of $2.40 but that was never going to last for long.
King Of Dudes will be competitive having recently finished second in the J.J Hurdle at Sandown. The Aaron Purcell-trained gelding also won a nice hurdle event two starts back when beating Hissing Sid by 2.75 lengths and he’s got a fair amount of flat speed too boot. The concern is that he prefers rain affected ground and he hasn’t run on a good track in some time. He too has been well backed in the market after opening at $4, his price has dropped to $3.20 on the back of solid support.
Earthbound is new to hurdling after just three starts but he’s adapted well having won once and placed twice. The Eric Musgrove-trained gelding won his hurdle maiden by 1.75 lengths and then ran Diamond Jim to six lengths two starts back. He was slightly disappointing when odds on favourite last start but he drops in weight for this and he must be respected. His opening price of $8 is now at $7 and money will likely continue to come for him based on recent form alone.
Recommended bet: Urban Explorer to win ($1.95) at Sportsbet.com.au
In the toughest field of the day, Silent Whisper is the current $4 favourite. The Lloyd Kennewell-trained gelding is fresh up after running third last time out on this track in a two-year-old event. The well bred gelding traveled to Caulfield for the Group Three Blue Diamond Prelude but he managed only 12th. His form prior was decent and he was good enough to run third behind Boomwaa in the a group three race at Flemington. If he can replicate that form he will be very tough to beat and he won’t be a maiden for much longer.
Youdini has had one start for a fifth on this track but he has been well backed into $4.80 after opening at $7. The three-year-old is well bred by Bernardini and he finished second in a quickly run trial to prepare for this. He was the well backed favourite on debut and despite his wide barrier draw of 12 he has been bet solidly again. The market will indicate his potential in this race but we can’t have him based on what he showed on debut.
Best Of Times has had two career starts for two fourths with one coming in the $100,000 Magic Millions Classic at Morphettville. The Phillip Stokes-trained gelding then ran 3.4 lengths behind a nice type in Cool Hero last time out and he showed good pace from the outset in that. He’s in a good stable and if he gets a good jump from barrier six then he will be tough to beat.
Recommended bet: Silent Whisper to win ($4) at Sportingbet.com.au
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