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Makybe Diva Stakes Day – Flemington – Preview, Tips and Best Bets

Fri, Sep 9, 5:56pm by Senior Writer

Saturday’s Makybe Diva Stakes meeting at Flemington sees the continued build-up to the peak of Spring racing, with the Melbourne Cup carnival now just seven weeks away.

But in typical Melbourne weather, after sunny skies and mid-20s temperatures during the week, this feature meeting will be run on a track which is likely to be at least slightly rain affected.

Melbourne has had between 5-10 mm of rain on Friday with a similar amount expected by raceday, but as long as it stops before the horses get out on the track, you would not expect it to get any worse than Soft 5.

The rail for this meeting is in the true position, having been out 7m when we last raced here five weeks ago. You’d expect the track to play fair, although the rain may play a part in that.

The main race is an interesting, but not strong renewal of a race which has always been a key guide to the Cox Plate and the Caulfield and Melbourne Cup.

Black Heart Bart is a dominant and deserved favourite off his excellent win the Memsie, with only
Palentino and Rising Romance rated serious threats. He’s our bet of the day, while Generalife, in Race 6, is our value pick of the day

Here’s our detailed Preview and Tips:

Race 1: Sofitel Girls Day Out Hcp 2500m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Black Tomahawk ($3.90)

2nd: 7. O’Lonera ($3.60)

3rd: 2. Crafty Cruiser ($26)

4th: 6. Lucques ($6)

Betting: Not a great deal of action in the first race, but Authoritarian has been a long-priced move from $31 into $21. O’Lonera ($3.60) and Black Tomahawk ($3.90) have come in slightly.

Summary: Tough start, trying to nail a 2500m race first up but feel we can get things off to a good start with Black Tomahawk. Has been placed his last four over this distance and like a lot of Weir horses will improve with racing. O’Lonera has progressed well this campaign winning three on end at Caulfield. Has never been over the 2500m before, so a slight concern. Crafty Cruiser knows this track and distance like the back of his hand and will appreciate the cut in the ground. Lucques is building up to a win.

Betting Confidence: Black Tomahawk doesn’t win a lot, but confident that if he is going to win any race this campaign, this is probably it.

WATCH: We preview Makybe Diva Stakes Day at Flemington

Race 2 Cap D’Antibes Stakes (1100m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 7. Kentucky Miss ($7.50)

2nd: 5. Selenia ($15)

3rd: 4. My Country ($6)

4th: 10. Najmaat ($19)

Betting: Missrock has had her friends, shortening from $6.50 into $5, while My Country has gone in the opposite direction. Some support for Kentucky Miss ($8.50 into $7.50) while Angasi opened $26 and is now $17.

Summary: Really tough straight race for the fillies. Have gone with Kentucky Miss, who comes into this with race fitness and off a good recent trial win after a third in G3. The straight should suit her. Selenia is a previous Flemington winner, who should be improved by her first-up run at Caulfield. My Country comes into this off a spell after a good win in Brisbane, while Najmaat showed enough first-up to suggest she is good value in this.

Betting Confidence: This race is a bit of a raffle. Will have a play at Kentucky Miss and Najmaat each-way, but nothing serious.

Race 3: Starlight Express Room Stakes (1400m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Seaburge ($5)

2nd: 5. Throssell ($9)

3rd: 3. Tessera ($5.50)

4th: 6. Detective ($9)

Betting: Seaburge has been backed from $5.50 into $4.80, while Throssell has been $13 into $9. Support as well for Zunbaqa from $8 into $6.50.

Summary: Seaburge looked like he’d improve significantly off his first-up fourth at Caulfield and comes into this with class and experience on his side. He’s won here before in a VRC Sires Produce and we think he’ll do so again. It’s a similar story for Throssell, who is good value in the race.

Always wary of Godolphin bringing one south at this time of year and Tessera drops in class here, while Detective was good here in the Sires in the autumn and won first-up at Wyong last time.

Betting Confidence: Really like Seaburge here. Confident that if he’s not winning, whatever beats him will.

Race 4: The Sofitel 1400m

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Ulmann ($4.80)

2nd: 9. Prince of Brooklyn ($5.50)

3rd: 4. Riziz ($19)

4th: 3. Tashbeeh ($4.60)

Betting: The ones at the top of the market have drifted as the week has progressed, with Prince of Brooklyn and Ulmann both out to around $5 after opening at $4.20. Money has come for Tashbeeh ($5.50 into $4.80), while the two Freedman runners, Cool Chap ($15 into $9) and Hi World ($11 into $9), have both been backed.

Summary: Good little race this. Ulmann was very, very good before going to Adelaide and we think he’ll be back to his best in this. Prince of Brooklyn is in great form and should be thereabouts again. Riziz has been in good form without winning and has won twice at Flemington before earlier in his career, while Tashbeeh is another one who loves Flemington, where he’s won three and plced three from six starts.

Betting Confidence: Confident Ulmann has a class edge on this providing he gets over his poor run in Adelaide. Riziz is a great each-way bet.

Race 5 Danehill Stakes (1200m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Defcon ($3.70)

2nd: 3. Saracino ($6.50)

3rd: 6. Highland Beat ($9)

4th: 10. Wazzenme ($11)

Betting: Not a great deal of movement in this race with Defcon fairly solid at the $3.70 mark as favourite. The one move has been for Dam Ready, who opened $15 and is now $11.

Summary: This race always seems to produce a good horse and Defcon may be the one this year. His win at Caulfield was excellent considering he looked like he’d need the run and he might be top class. The Kiwi Saracino is the mystery horse but his dominant win at Te Rapa in an open Group 2 race is enough to suggest he’s up to this. Highland Beat is in good form without winning, while Wazzenme was great from the back last time.

Betting Confidence: Very confident that none of the locals can beat Defcon based on his first-up run. The question is how good is Saracino? Back both.

Race 6: Bobbie Leiw Quality (1200m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Under The Louvre ($5.50)

2nd: 3. Generalife ($21)

3rd: 7. The Monstar ($19)

4th: 8. Santa Ana Lane ($7)

Betting: Kinglike has attracted interest first-up and has been $6 into $4.80. Santa Ana Lane ($7 into $6.50) and We’ve Got This ($14 into $11) have both had support as well.

Summary: A fairly even sprint race, but think Under The Louvre is well-suited from a wider barrier at backable odds. He was just beaten in this race last year and was unlucky when previously down the straight here on Derby Day. Generalife is clearly the best value. He was just ahead of Under The Louvre in that Derby Day race, and does like this track. The Monstar is also silly overs, having taken plenty of confidence and fitness from his winter Brisbane campaign while the first-up effort of Santa Ana Lane was more than pleasing,

Betting Confidence: Under The Louvre is already at backable each-way odds at $5.50, but will be putting most of my each-way pennies on Generalife, with some saved for The Monstar as well.

Race 7 Makybe Diva Stakes (1600m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Black Heart Bart ($2.35)

2nd: 6. Entirely Platinum ($19)

3rd: 10. Palentino ($5.50)

4th: 5. Jacquinot Bay ($21)

Betting: Black Heart Bart was probably too short opening at $2.10, and as a result is now out to $2.35. Rising Romance has been $9 into $7.50, Tarzino $13 into $11 and Jacquinot Bay $26 into $21.

Comment: It’s not a classic version of this race and in that case, you have to go for current form. That puts Black Heart Bart lengths clear on his Memsie win where he beat seven of his rivals here. Entirely Platinum may be the most under-rated horse in Australia and his consistency can’t be faulted. He’s in this from the inside barrier. Palentino has been targeted at this and will improve, while Jacquinot Bay appeals off the quick back-up after being unlucky last week.

Betting Confidence: Confident Black Heart Bart is a good a win bet as you’ll have all day. He has improved greatly and would have to drop off significantly if he is to be beaten here.

Race 8 Let’s Elope stakes (1400m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Don’t Doubt Mamma ($7)

2nd: 12. Telopea ($8)

3rd: 4. Thames Court ($8.50)

4th: 15. French Emotion ($7.50)

Betting: Thames Court has shortened from $9.50 into $8.50, while French Emotion touched $9 at one stage before coming into $7.50.

Summary: Another hard race, but think Don’t Doubt Mamma is the one to beat despite drawing barrier one, which won’t suit her racing style. Her last three starts over 1400m here have resulted in two wins and a close second. Telopea had little luck off a short break last time and is another one who likes the 1400m at Flemington. Thames Court beat Telopea home last start and looks to have come back in great order. French Emotion is a mare on the rise.

Betting Confidence: Confident that only bad luck keeps Don’t Doubt Mamma out of the finish in this. She’s appealing odds for such a consistent and talented mare.

Race 9: Spring is the Season Handicap (1700m)

Tips: (Odds Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Royal Rapture ($5.50)

2nd: 13. Pilote D’Essai ($3)

3rd: 11. Gabella ($8)

4th: 1. Maurus ($51)
Betting: Tally is the one at odds who has had some support, coming in from $10 into $8.50. Pilote D’Essai has been very solid as $3 favourite.

Summary: Sometimes as punters we look the obvious in the face. Royal Rapture at $5.50 may be exactly that. He has won three on the bounce at $15, $2.80 and $7.50, including two at this track and should keep on his winning run here. Pilote D’essai has been very good in two starts this campaign but was beaten three lengths by Royal Rapture last time, Gabella looks to have come back very well and will appreciate the step up in distance, while Maurus boasts a good second-up record and is silly odds.

Betting Confidence: Like Royal Rapture at the each-way value here. Weir has such an ability to keep his horses’ at their peak and this guy keeps improving this campaign.


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