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Moonee Valley and Mornington: Preview, Bets Bets and Odds

Fri, Mar 24, 1:11pm by Senior Writer

This weekend marks the final Group 1 race of the Victorian racing season as Moonee Valley hosts the William Reid Stakes on Friday night.

Mornington then takes centre stage for its Cup meeting on Saturday, a race which earns the winner a free ticket to this year’s Caulfield Cup in October.

Given the split focus in Victoria this weekend, we are going to offer tips for both meetings, with a shortened summary of each race.

Our Best Bet of the weekend comes up in Race 3 at Moonee Valley on Friday night, No.1 Ken’s Dream.

At $2.60, this guy looks excellent value. He resumed down the straight at Flemington. Missed the start and finished second, running some great sectionals. He has had two starts over the Valley 1200m for a win in a good race last August and he then finished second at his next start.

While the horse that beat him last time is in this race, I believe this track and this distance and the run under his belt will see him improve significantly into this race and just wins in my opinion.

Our Best Value comes up in the Mornington Cup, which is Race 7. No.2 Tally, who is outstanding value at $11.

Tally would have figured close to the placegetters in the Australian Cup last start had Damien Oliver not just about put him over the fence at the 200m mark.

Before that he was just two lengths off the likes of Humidor and Jameka in a good race at Caulfield. He ran third in a Turnbull Stakes in the spring, while his last try over this type of distance saw him run third in a Lexus.

His record outside of Group 1 class is 13 starts for five wins and five seconds, yet he finds himself down in Listed company, albeit in a strong Mornington Cup. He’s a top quality horse with a  good turn of foot and I think is an each-way steal.
WATCH: Our Preview of Mornington and Moonee Valley

In the William Reid on Friday night, I think it’s Star Turn’s for the taking. Good barrier, and should relish getting around the turn again after two big wins at Flemington.

Don’t forget to check out our comprehensive preview of the big race meeting at Rosehill on Saturday.

Here’s our race by race preview for Moonee Valley on Friday night and Mornington on Saturday.

Moonee Valley Race 1 – Simpsons Construction – 2040m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 7. Typhoon Monaco ($2.15)

2nd: 5. Princess Aria ($6.50)

3rd: 2. Mightiest ($6)

4th: 1. Wells ($31)

Summary: Not much of a race to kick off, but the form around Typhoon Monaco has stood up very well and she is a clear top pick. Princess Aria won by a space last time and this race isn’t much better. Mightiest is ready to win. Wells is big value and has form in this distance range.

Moonee Valley Race 2 – The Valley Pearl – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Showtime ($3.70)

2nd: 1. Coruscate ($5)

3rd: 3. Muraaqeb ($2.80)

4th: 8. Pageantry ($8.50)

Summary: Showtime is a very smart and well-bred colt who should prove too good for this. Coruscate acquitted himself well in good class races in Sydney and is the clear threat. Muraaqeb won well her first start and was good when third in the Black Opal, while Pageantry is a very consistent horse who is probably the best value.

Moonee Valley Race 3 – PKF Plate – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Ken’s Dream ($2.60)

2nd: 2. Falcool ($5)

3rd: 4. Matty ($9.50)

4th: 3. Artie Dee Two ($6.50)

Summary: Ken’s Dream should just win this. He’s improve into this and should account for Falcool, who looks better suited at Flemington then here. It’s the opposite for Matty, who struggled last time but did win here two back. Artie Dee Two is one to watch for. Will improve third-up and does have a win at this track under his belt.

Moonee Valley Race 4 – 55 second Challenge- Heat 13 – 955m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Petit Filous ($2.15)

2nd: 1. Sirbible ($6.50)

3rd: 3. Beau Rada ($11)

4th: 2. Tuscan Sling ($6)

Summary: Good little final edition of this series with the return of the super speedy mare Petite Filous. She is a two-time winner at this track and should be ready to roll here. Sirbible loves this course and smashed the clock over this distance back in November. Beau Rada doesn’t run a bad race at this track and distance and is great odds. Tuscan Sling resumes and is unbeaten first-up. She beat Petit Filous home when they met in the Robert Sangster last year.

Moonee Valley Race 5 – Alexandra Stakes – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Ellicazoom ($3.30)

2nd: 2. Oregon’s Day ($4.60)

3rd: 4. Peninsula Lakes ($4.20)

4th: 7. Fragonard ($15)

Summary: A few fillies desperate to break through for a win here and think Ellicazoom can break her run of seconds and win here. Oregon’s Day missed the kick last time but her form is good and she should settle closer this time. Peninsula Lakes won by a massive margin at Adelaide and can measure up here, while Fragonard is the best value in the race.

Moonee Valley Race 6 – Sunline Stakes – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 10. I Am A Star ($2.10)

2nd: 2. First Seal ($4.80)

3rd: 3. French Emotion ($10)

4th: 1. Rising Romance ($11)

Summary: I Am A Star gets in very well into the race under the conditions, and think she’s the one to beat here, although not thrilled about the price. She narrowly beat French Emotion and First Seal in the Myer Classic in the Spring, but meets then 5kgs worse from that run. Like those two horses to be competitive as well as Rising Romance, who has not won in a long time, but is always thereabouts.

Moonee Valley Race 7 – William Reid Stakes – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 13. Star Turn ($4.40)

2nd: 11. Sheidel ($5)

3rd: 5. Hooked ($35)

4th: 2. Flamberge ($15)

Summary: This should be Star Turn’s race. He’s due to get a Group 1 win and this should be it. Sheidel will give him something to chase and was only narrowly beaten home by Star Turn in the Newmarket. Hooked is silly odds when you consider he’s always thereabouts, albeit he comes back from 1400m, while Flamberge won this race last year and always performs well at the Valley.

Moonee Valley Race 8 – Adapt Australia Hcp – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Handsome Thief ($1.40)

2nd: 8. Nic Nac ($10)

3rd: 3. Domesday Warrior ($23)

4th: 14. Easy Flyer ($10)

Summary: Handsome Thief could be a freak and will preserve his unbeaten Valley record with another win here. Nic Nac is in good form and can fill second behind the raging favourite here. Domesday Warrior is probably over the odds and can fill a place, while Easy Flyer chased Handsome Thief home last time.

Mornington Preview:

Mornington Race 1 – Windows Warehouse – 1000m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Pink Perfection ($8)

2nd: 1. Aunty Mo ($6.50)

3rd: 7. Certain Ellie ($11)

4th: 3. Nordic Empire ($19)

Summary:  Pink Perfection the best odds of these considering her close-up run at Flemington last time. Value among the other selections as well.

Mornington Race 2 – No Fuss Event Hire – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Miles of Krishnan ($5.50)

2nd: 12. El Rada ($5.50)

3rd: 10. Viatrix ($5)

4th: 6. Weather The Storm ($17)

Summary: Miles of Krishnan can take the next step this campaign and has a good first-up record. Is the class horse of the race

Mornington Race 3 – Progress Signs Hcp –  2000m  

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st:  9. Snitzelwood ($6)

2nd: 7. Gladstone ($6)

3rd: 4. Try Four ($3.20)

4th: 5. Golden Mane ($7)

Summary: Snitzelwood is nice odds when you consider he was close-up in a good form race, the Wangaratta Cup, last time out. Has won two of three third-up runs before.

Mornington Race 4 – Fibretrack Sires Hcp – 1500m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Eshtiraak ($2.30)

2nd: 2. Toga Picta ($2.90)

3rd: 7. Aberro ($7)

4th: 4. Sheer Madness ($12)

Summary: Looks a race in two. Eshtiraak had a bad day out at Flemington last time, where a lot went wrong. Confident he has the class to bounce back and win this race.

Mornington Race 5 – Mitavite Challenge Final – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Strike Force ($3.30)

2nd: 4. Rising Hope ($8.50)

3rd: 7. Fife ($4.20)

4th: 3. Hell On Earth ($9.50)

Summary: Strike Force is in great form and deservedly won last time at Flemington. No reason why he can’t win again here.

Mornington Race 6 – Ladbrokes Hareeba Stakes – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 5. Bassett ($4.20)

2nd: 8. Prussian Vixen ($12)

3rd: 12. Inspector ($12)

4th: 3. Reldas ($9)

Summary: Bassett might have finally worked out how to win races having put together two on the bounce. Is the one to beat here, but Prussian Vixen also appeals at good odds when you consider her strong record at this track.

Mornington Race 7 – Ladbrokes Mornington Cup – 2400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 2. Tally ($11)

2nd: 3. The Good Trail ($2.40)

3rd: 6. Boom Time ($9)

4th: 8. Dark Eyes ($8.50)

Summary: Very strong renewal of this race and as mentioned, really like tally at the odds here. This is his class of race. The mystery is of course The Gold Trail, who only has to recreate his best overseas form to measure up to this.

Mornington Race 8 – Mornington Guineas – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 12. Red Is The Rose ($3.60)

2nd: 2. Lord Macau ($7)

3rd: 1. Cliff Hanger ($4.40)

4th: 10. Florida Keys ($10)

Summary: Red Is The Rose was a huge run when trying to lead all the way at Flemington. This is an easier race for her and she will prove tough to run down here

Mornington Race 9 – Cleanaway Hcp – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Just Magical ($7)

2nd: 7. Bon Rocket ($9.50)

3rd: 10. Maternal ($4.60)

4th: 3. Moss ‘n’ Dale ($4)

Summary: Just Magical goes in on top as he’s a good horse in good form, who loves this track and gets a nice barrier.

 


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