Fri, Jul 25, 6:18pm by Daryl Curnow
When: Saturday, July 26th. First race starts at 12.50pm.
A nice eight-race card at Caulfield with plenty of even fields which makes for a good value day. Race one kicks off with a two-year-old handicap where the last start winner Affirmation currently holds favouritism.
Affirmation opened as the $3 favourite and has since been bet into $2.80. The Tony McEvoy-trained gelding ran fifth in the $253,000 Inglis Classic on debut, only 5.8 lengths from the talented Peggy Jean. The son of Not A Single Doubt then traveled to Adelaide where he won easily by 1.5 lengths on a slow track. He has drawn a touch wide in barrier eight which is a concern but the rise in distance suits and he’s been well backed in the market.
Club Star has been a drifter in the betting from $4.20 to $4.80 despite winning by three lengths last time out at Bendigo. This is a big step up in class for the Peter Moody-trained runner but his form prior was solid and he will have his chance from barrier four. The son of Starcraft relished the wet conditions last start and he’s already had experience over this distance. If he drifts too far out in the market he’s probably worth letting go, but if he firms back in then go with the tote.
Berlutti won well last start at Sale by 1.5 lengths. The Mick Price-trained colt is well bred by the in-form Not A Single Doubt and there is good race history on the dam side of the breeding too. The two-year-old found running in the Blue Diamond Prelude events a touch too tough against horses like Mohave and Rubick, but back to this level he should be more at home and he’s been well backed from $4 to $3.80.
Recommended bet: Affirmation to win ($2.80) at Sportsbet.com.au
The Michael Kent-trained Pyrrolic has opened as the $3.80 and he been fluctuating since betting opened. The three-year-old colt won a listed event last start by half-a-length and that form is good enough for this. The son of Teofilo was a good winner on debut by three lengths before running an unlucky seventh in the Group Two Autumn Stakes. His last start suggested that he will appreciate the extra distance and he’s drawn well with Brad Rawiller in the saddle.
Baron Archer has been one of the day’s best backed runners. The Jason Warren-trained gelding opened at $7.50 and has been heavily backed into $4.60. The three-year-old is unbeaten in two starts, with his most recent start coming by 1.75 lengths. Both runs have come on a slow track and conditions should suit here with showers forecast. The son of Written Tycoon drops nicely down in weight to 54kg and Ben Melham rides from barrier one, a massive assist over this distance.
Yesterday’s Songs has drawn very wide in barrier 10 but his maiden win was effortless. The Michael Moroney-trained gelding won on a slow track by 5.5 lengths and that suggested the extra distance would be of no issue to the three-year-old. He is bred to handle wet conditions and to run out long distances so his lack of experience is counteracted. Punters haven’t missed this gelding in the betting – opening at $3.40 and coming into $3.30.
Recommended bet: Pyrrolic to win ($3.80) at Sportingbet.com.au
Self Sense opened as the $3.50 favourite and has since been bet into $3. The Street Sense gelding looks the standout in the field after winning his last races. The three-year-old won by 3.75 lengths two starts back and he won by a length last start, beating a very good field in the process. The Brideoake/Feek-trained gelding has a nice course record of five starts for one win and two placings – he also stays at the same weight he won at last start. He has won on both dead and heavy tracks which covers his bases for this.
The former New Zealand runner Pharrell has had a nice introduction to Australian racing with three consecutive third placings. The gelding is now trained by Nick Harnett and he was very unlucky last start in a nice field. The King’s Chapel three-year-old won his last start before crossing the Tasman and the rise up in distance should hold no concerns. Only win has come on a heavy track and his weight is down for this, not to mention jumping from barrier three.
Wanna Dance will jump from barrier one with Dean Yendall in the saddle and he’ll be looking to make it back-to-back wins. The Zaha gelding won by two lengths at Mildura and his breeding suggests that he will see the 2400 metres out. He continually runs on but the punters aren’t so keen with his opening price of $8.50 drifting out to $9.50. Trainer Ciaron Maher is in good form of that and he could get this runner over the line.
Recommended bet: Self Sense to win ($3.50) at Centrebet.com
Kristy Lee comes over from Sydney with very good form and she was a touch unlucky last start. The Chris Waller-trained mare beat two good horses in her two wins this campaign, beating Holy Delusions three back and Cradle Me two starts back. The Encosta De Lago mare is having her first run left handed and she excels at this distance, having had 13 starts for four wins and four placings. She has drawn a touch wide in barrier 11 but Glen Boss takes over the riding and he should find a good spot from there. She opened at $3 and has come into $2.90 on the back of good betting.
Sino Eagle has been a drifter in the market, opening at $6 and blowing out to $7. The Peter Moody-trained mare is fresh up where she has had three starts for one win and two placings. The five-win mare beat a nice horse three starts back at Flemington and she then finished third in a Group Three. The daughter of Casino Prince is unbeaten at this track and her distance stats are very good – winning two and placing in two from five starts over the 1200 metres. All her form has come on a good track so she will need conditions to suit but she carries only 54.5kg.
Headless came over from Queensland with good form and her three runs in Victoria have been solid. The Stephen Theodore-trained mare finished second at Moonee Valley and her two runs since haven’t been at all bad. The daughter of Holy Roman Emperor has consistent form on all surfaces and she’s a nice lightweight chance at odds of $12. Darren Gauci rides at 54kg and she jumps from a good barrier of four.
Recommended bet: Kristy Lee to win ($2.90) at Sportsbet.com.au
Lord Of The Sky is the shortest favourite of the day at $1.55, after opening at $1.65. The Robbie Laing-trained colt has won five from eight starts and he has won his last two very easily. The son of Danerich won two starts back at Caulfield by 1.5 lengths over a similar field and then he followed that up with a fantastic 4.5-length win on this track in the Group Three Monash Stakes. His best form usually comes on a dead track and it’s very hard to see him getting beaten in this. The $1.55 looks like a good multi-bet builder.
Le Bonsir is an eight-win gelding who usually finds one better – likely to be Lord Of The Sky here – but he did try hard last start and he deserves a mention in this. The Mick Price-trained gelding has yet to win at Caulfield having had five starts for two placings, but he excels over this distance and he has drawn the inside barrier. The son of Choisir should be able to lead from that draw if he wants to and that could put pressure on the favourite. All his form has come on a dry track and his odds have ultimately drifted from $6.50 to $7.
Nearest To Pin has been a big drifter, $8 to $11, but he is a last start winner who defeated Le Bonsir by a narrow margin. The four-year-old gelding hasn’t done much wrong this campaign and he’s won six times, placed a further six times from 14 starts at this distance. He has the ability to sit on a strong pace and grind on well, so even if the favourite leads and can stick with him. That being said, he lacks the class of Lord Of The Sky so the place option does seem best in this.
Recommended bet: Lord Of The Sky to win ($1.55) at Sportingbet.com.au
Street Allure has had a stellar campaign which was featured three consecutive wins and she’s the favourite based on that alone. The Darren Weir-trained filly is the daughter of Street Boss and her win three back came by 2.75 lengths. The three-year-old ran fifth in listed grade last start but she didn’t get all favours in the straight and she should roll forward from barrier 11. Her best form has come on dead tracks with seven starts for three wins and two placings and she is twice a winner at this distance. Harry Coffey takes 2kg off her back and she is justifiably the $5.50 favourite.
The John O’Shea-trained Copper was scratched from mid-week racing to run here which means confidence is high. The three-year-old is an improving type who won last start before getting relegated after she was deemed to cause severe interference. The daughter of Shamardal has placed four times from seven starts and she wouldn’t mind some easing of the track with her only win coming on a heavy surface. That win came by 8.5 lengths so watch for her if the track shows anything worse than dead. Punters have caught on – opening at $8 and has been bet into $6.50.
Whistle Baby is slightly out of form but the Ellerton/Zahra-trained filly did win five starts back with a charging run and her best would take her close here. The three-year-old by Magnus hasn’t showed her best this campaign but with an improved track she could come into calculations. She will have the advantage of the inside draw and she is actually well in the market at $9. Keep her safe in your combination bets.
Recommended bet: Street Allure to win ($5.50) at Centrebet.com
Worth Of Mouth has caught punters attention by showing his best form this campaign. The Leon Corstens-trained gelding couldn’t quite overcome bad luck last time out but he pushed Self Sense to a length even though he draw barrier 11 and he was extremely slow out of the barriers. The three-year-old has placed twice at Caulfield and he has won his last three from five, making him a real live chance in this. He’s by Not A Single Doubt whose progeny are in cracking form and his opening $3.20 quote has been slashed into $2.90.
Zebrinz looks like a very good outside chance and the punters have caught on. The Greg Eurell-trained gelding opened at $19 and he has been bet into $12 on the back of very good support. The son of Sebring was very disappointing last time out in the Silverbowl Final but that grade was too tough and his start for sixth prior is a better form guide. He was unlucky in that event, getting blocked at the 400 metres and getting held up for at least 200 metres. He’ll be better off here and he’s at generous odds.
Written has drifted from $4.80 to $5.50 despite winning last start by a nose at Flemington. The three-year-old trained by Michael Kent is a four-time winner from 12 starts and she runs from the perfect alley of barrier one in this. The rise in distance looks ideal as she always puts in tough efforts and if she gets a dry track her chances increase significantly. Katelyn Mallyon is in impressive form and she takes the ride at a cruisy weight of 54kg.
Recommended bet: Zebrinz to place ($3.70) at Sportsbet.com.au
Sir John Hawkwood has been steady in the market at $5.50 and the Craig Ritchie-trained gelding has been better than his form suggests this campaign. The five-year-old was very unlucky two starts back at Rosehill where he had no room in the straight behind the talented Scream Machine and he should get more running room from barrier five in this. The imported runner came over from Royal Ascot having run seventh in the Group Two Hardwicke and he is gradually getting better. He drops massively in weight to 55kg having run at 60.5kg last time out.
Bagman has had four runs this campaign for two duck eggs and a good second placing two starts back at Rosehill. The Chris Waller-trained gelding pushed Scream Machine close and he then went close at Randwick last time out when fourth behind I’m Imposing. The now seven-year-old has placed in both career runs at this track and he would ideally prefer a good rated track, having had 26 starts for eight wins and nine placings. He opened at $4.80 and got bet into $4.40, then $4.50 and now back out to $4.60.
Surpass is a former New Zealand runner who ran a slashing second last start when the punters let him go in the betting. The Michael Moroney-trained gelding got sent out as a $20 shot and now they have come for him in droves, having opened at $7.50, he’s now into $6.50. He has placed once from three starts when second up and a wet track is needed for him to show his best, but there are showers around so the track should suit. On a heavy track he has won twice and placed five times from seven starts.
Recommended bet: Sir John Hawkwood to win ($5.50) at Sportingbet.com.au
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