Fri, Aug 29, 9:59am by Daryl Curnow
Hopefully the rain subsides for at least one day as we’re hoping the fields don’t get depleted with scratchings! The Run To The Rose is the featured event on the card with the three-year-old’s going to battle for the $125,000 prize. We have all the latest markets, up-to-date odds and free tips for the eight-race card.
Burning Passion opened as the short $2.30 favourite but has since drifted out the $2.80. The Anthony Cummings-trained colt was second on debut behind the talented Sarajevo and his next run at Canterbury wasn’t all too bad. The son of Northern Meteor then ran on a heavy track, again at Canterbury, where he won easily by three lengths and that suggests the heavy track won’t be an issue in this. The slightly wider draw of six shouldn’t come into play too much on this track and he looks like a good chance to win in this.
John Thompson has said that First Seal should handle the heavy track and her price has tumbled in because of that. The three-year-old filly opened at $4.80 and has been backed heavily into $3.20 on the back of a solid win at Randwick on a slow track. The well bred daughter of Fastnet Rock defeated a good field and she is at a nice weight of 55.5kg with Hugh Bowman in the saddle. It’s tough to say how the inside draw will play out in the first race – whether or not jockeys will go wide – but it should be fine that early and she looks a progressive type.
Himpapawid should be respected after winning by 3.25 lengths on debut at Randwick. The Gai Waterhouse-trained gelding looked far too good for his rivals and that win came on a slow track, so the heavy conditions shouldn’t be a deterrent. He ran a pretty quick time for the 1100 metre race and Tommy Berry takes the ride which makes him a winning hope. He has drawn wide in barrier eight but that’s unlikely to make much of a difference with this track. The extra distance also shouldn’t be a worry. He opened at $5.50 and has been nicely backed into $4.40.
Recommended bet: Himpapawid to win ($4.40) at Centrebet.com
The Chris Waller-trained Scarletini went very close last start and she drops slightly in grade for this. The five-year-old ran second at Rosehill and now with four runs under her belt this campaign, she will be ready to fire in this at good odds. The daughter of Bernardini was good enough to finish fourth in the Western Australian Oaks at Ascot and she’s starting to show similar form again. The increase in distance to 2000 metres suited perfectly as the more ground she goes over, the better. She opened at $7.50, got bet into $7, and is now back to her opening quote.
Stablemate Made To Order gets a much needed weight relief from apprentice jockey Winona Costin and her effort for third last start was credible. The four-year-old finished 1.7 lengths behind Forever Crazy but she carried 58kg and she drops in weight from that. The three-win daughter of Commands has a good course record of three starts for one win and one placing and she won her only start on a slow track. She is untested on the heavy ground but her breeding suggests she will handle it and this is a step down in class from her most recent races. Punters aren’t so confident as her opening price of $7.50 has blown out to $9.
The Bart and James Cumming-trained Blazing Dragon should be in fit order having had three starts this campaign and she has been finished off her races stylishly of late. The six-year-old mare didn’t get everything run to suit last time out at Rosehill but she peeled six-wide around the home turn and produced a strong finish down the outside for fifth. In four runs on rain affected tracks she has three placings and this distance is more suitable now. She has come in one point to $8 after opening as high as $9.
Recommended bet: Scarletini to win ($7.50) at Sportsbet.com.au
The Kris Lees-trained Ay No Digas has won his last two and his breeding suggests he won’t be out of his depth in the heavy going. The five-year-old son of Singspiel scored a 3.75-length win two starts back at Musswellbrook before scoring a more narrow win at Warwick Farm last start. The big indicator is that jockey James McDonald sticks with him as opposed to riding Ragtime Cowboy Joe. He rarely runs a bad race with a career record of seven starts for three wins and three placings, so his consistency will continue to get rewards. He opened quite high in the market at $6 and has drifted out to $6.50 but that’s good value in our books.
Tohunga is a game type for trainer Gai Waterhouse who has pushed some nice horses close this preparation. The six-year-old fought hard to finish second behind Saigon Tea last start at Randwick after setting the pace and his run the start prior was a touch unlucky. The stayer is bred for extreme distance – by Zabeel out of a very good New Zealand mare – and he has placed in two runs at the 2400 metres. He has never featured in four starts at Rosehill but this field isn’t flash and he has been kept safe by bookies at $7.
Georgey Aeroplane is only a four-win gelding from 22 starts but the former New Zealand likes wet tracks and his most recent runs have been solid. Now trained with Chris Waller, the seven-year-old closed well for third behind Saigon Tea last start and he was a winner at Geelong three starts back by 2.5 lengths. His slow track form reads well with eight starts for two wins and three placings, and he is unbeaten in two starts on this track – a massive plus if you’re a horses for courses punter. He is the current favourite at $4.80.
Recommended bet: Ay No Digas to win ($6.50) at Sportingbet.com.au
Right down the bottom of the page sits the current $5.50 favourite, Maroon Bay. The Hawkes-trained mare hasn’t been able to win this campaign but she was game in defeat last start at Rosehill and her prior form stacks up well. The daughter of Exceed And Excel finished third behind Thiamandi at Caulfield who has since gone on to bigger things and she can handle wet tracks as well. The four-year-old has had three starts on a slow track for three placings and this distance is ideal – two starts for two placings. James McDonald takes the ride with the luxury weight of only 54.5kg.
Maysoon has been a drifted in the market from $5.50 to $6.50 but the Hawkes-trained runner will find this easier than her recent starts and she gets a nice 3kg claim via apprentice Taylor Marshall. The four-year-old was 3.9 lengths from the winner at Randwick but her start three back was good when pushing Group One winner Cosmic Endeavour to 3.7 lengths. She has placed once from two starts at this track and her distance record reads well. Her overall record is impressive and despite the market drift, she looks like a good each way chance in this.
Runway Star is an enigmatic mare who either wins or doesn’t place. The Gerald Ryan-trained mare is a six-start mare for two wins and no placings. The daughter of Northern Meteor was disappointing in finishing sixth last start at Rosehill as the $4.80 favourite but she was a good winner her start prior and she has always shown good gate speed. The wet track worries as all her form has come on a good track but she has drawn barrier one and Kerrin McEvoy rides at a nice weight of 55kg.
Recommended bet: Maroon Bay to win ($5.50) at Sportsbet.com.au
The John Sargent-trained Kirramosa put in a very nice effort when fresh last start at Randwick. The four-year-old was unsuited by the 1200 metre distance considering she won the Group One Crown Oaks over 2500 metres last season at Flemington. The four-win daughter of Alamosa will likely still need more ground but she has won second up and she ran very well at 1400 and 1600 metres last season. She is easily the class horse of the field and Taylor Marshall takes 3kg off her back but she has been easy in the betting after opening at $4.20 – she now sits at $4.60, but still holds favouritism.
Four-year-old Spy Decoder has been well supported in the market at $5 after opening at $4.60. The Anthony Cummings-trained gelding is twice a winner from six starts with his most recent coming at Warwick Farm in April this year. The son of Testa Rossa put in a big finish behind Beauty’s Beast in the Listed South Pacific Stakes three starts back and again in the Group Three Hawkesbury Guineas. He has plenty of upside but is giving away experience, however he looks a decent lightweight chance with James McDonald in the saddle.
Beyond Thankful has been the best backed runner in the race. The Chris Waller-trained import opened at $8.50 and has been backed steadily into $6.50 following a last start eighth at Rosehill. The five-year-old went close in the Wagga Cup his start prior when second behind Trade Commissioner and he has placed in behind Leebaz last season. The two-time winner has drawn the inside barrier and Hugh Bowman takes the ride which instills confidence. He has won both starts when second up and that’s what he faces in this. Looks a good chance.
Recommended bet: Kirramosa to win ($4.60) at Sportingbet.com.au
The unbeaten Almalad is the current $4.20 after opening at $4. The Gai Waterhouse-trained colt has yet to taste defeat in three starts with the most recent coming at Eagle Farm in the Group One J.J Atkins Stakes. The three-year-old by Al Maher won two starts back at Randwick by 3.5 lengths and two of his three wins have come on a dead track so chances are that he will handle something worse. This race does look tough but he has drawn a nice barrier in five and Tommy Berry rides. Follow any positive market moves but he will likely drift out in price come start time.
Nostradamus is a last start winner in Group Two grade and there is no reason why he can’t repeat in this. The Hawkes-trained colt put in a very nice finish to score a 0.75-length win over a smart field at Rosehill and his previous form included a fourth behind Rubick in the Blue Diamond Prelude and also a seventh, making ground, in the Blue Diamond Final. He is very well bred and has stacks of talent with the only worry being the track condition but horses by Medaglia d’Oro run well in the wet. McDonald opts to ride Sarajevo but his chances still appear bright at $5 after opening at $5.50.
Sarajevo was very unlucky last start in the Listed Rosebud Stakes after getting no room in the straight, before finished off well, only 1.2 lengths behind Scissor Kick who has since won again. The John O’Shea-trained son of Lonhro has drawn very deep in barrier 12 which means he will likely get back but he has plenty of talent and we should see a better performance in this. He opened at $6 and has drifted out to $6.50 but we expect support to come for him late in the piece.
Recommended bet: Sarajevo to win ($6.50) at Sportsbet.com.au
Greatwood is a very short favourite at $3 after opening at $2.80 on the back of a slashing performance for third last start in the Spring Preview. The Gai Waterhouse-trained gelding is on Melbourne Cup watch and his first up run was an excellent guide to his chances. He has placed two from three when second up and Tommy Berry rides from a very nice weight of only 54kg. In Europe he consistently carried weights of 56kg upwards and this could be the winning difference. He has plenty of form around him and the punters have caught on. Watch for any movement in the market – he should be well backed late.
He’s Your Man is another former import who blitzed rivals last start in the Listed Winter Challenge at Rosehill. The Chris Waller-trained gelding does like to sit on the pace and that could be a problem from barrier 16 but two of his three career wins have come on a slow track and he’ll get conditions to suit. 1800 metres looks to be his peak distance and he will be even fitter having had two runs to prepare this campaign, however he might need some luck in running from that wide draw. He opened at $5 and has stayed steady at that price.
Opinion is another imported runner who loves wet tracks. The Chris Waller-trained gelding is a five-time winner from 21 starts and two of those have come second up. He’s a stayer who finds form quickly and he won his only run over this distance. The six-year-old was good enough to finish second behind The Offer in the Group One Sydney Cup and The Offer is one of the Melbourne Cup favourite’s. His record on this track is good with four starts for one win and one placing so don’t let him slip under the radar at big odds of $19 as he will thrive in these conditions.
Recommended bet: Greatwood to win ($3) at Centrebet.com
The Peter and Paul Snowden-trained Cluster might not handle the extreme wet conditions but his recent form makes him an inclusion in this. The four-year-old won two starts back at Kembla Grange by a massive 9.25 lengths and backed that up with a win on this track over Rock Sturdy who has since won a nice event last Saturday. The son of Fastnet Rock has yet to win on anything worse than good but he likes this distance and track. From the wide barrier draw of 13 he does have the ability to cross and lead all the way. He opened as the $4 favourite but has since drifted out slightly to $4.40.
Mount Nebo continues to run solid races without winning but he will break through soon enough. The Allan Denham-trained gelding steps up slightly in grade but this doesn’t look much harder and he’s a good chance to break his run of third placings. He has placed at Rosehill on four occasions and his distance record is very solid with one win and five placings. His best stats come on a heavy track with three starts for two wins and one placing, making him a very good winning chance in this. He opened at $6.50 but has drifted out slightly to $7.50.
Murder Of Crows has come in with good support from $11 to $8. The Chris Waller-trained gelding is a three-time winner from 12 starts who returned to form with a solid win last start. The son of Flying Spur has won here and this is his best distance by far. He has shown that he can handle the wet tracks and Hugh Bowman rides at a nice weight of 55.5kg, dropping 3kg from his last effort to win. He does put in the odd bad run but his chances look good to at least run a place in this.
Recommended bet: Mount Nebo to place ($2.50) at Sportsbet.com.au
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