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Turnbull Stakes Day – Flemington – Preview, Tips and Best Bets

Sat, Oct 1, 11:18am by Senior Writer

The Melbourne Spring Carnival winds its way to Flemington for Turnbull Stakes Day this Sunday in what should be a great preview for the rest of the spring.

The main race sees Godolphin star Hartnell looking to make it three wins in a row and book a place against Winx in the Cox Plate in three weeks’ time.

The former import is our best bet of the day, while our best value also comes from the John O’Shea stable, in Chipanda in Race 6. In fact, we are predicting a big day for the boys in all blue, with Federal tipped to win the last race.

Here’s our full preview and tips for every race at Flemington.

R1 Maribyrnong Trial Stakes (1000m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. American Genius ($13)

2nd: 9. Redcore ($7.50)

3rd: 14. Purrhaps ($7)

4th: 13: Madeenaty ($3.50)

Betting: Madeenaty has been well supported from $5.50 into $3.50, while the top one, American Genius was $17 and is now $13. Expect to see more significant moves on raceday.

Summary: Pretty much a dart board job this. A big field of unraced two-year-olds charging down the 1000m straight isn’t exactly my idea of fun. A few have had jumpouts and trials, but there’s nothing special in them. Have gone for the toppy on the fact he has had two trials and is in a well-educated yard. It’s a similar story for Redcore, who has Oliver on board as a bonus. Purrhaps has been well supported at $7, while Madeenaty has been the one punter shave come for early on.

Betting Confidence: None at all. Have a bet if you must, but best bet is to follow the money.

R2 Poseidon Stakes – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 12. Zunbaqa ($3.50)

2nd: 3. Peacock ($5.50)

3rd: 1. Trenchant ($8)

4th: 5. Styleman ($5.50)

Betting: With Benz scratched, Zunbaqa is a clear $3.50 favourite after opening $4 on Wednesday,

Summary: These 1400m three-year-old races always provide plenty of intrigue. Zunbaqa won here two starts back and was competitive in a good race last time. She’s our clear top pick. Peacock was a little disappointing first-up, but always wary when Godolphin send one down here, while Trenchant made mistakes down the straight last time, but his previous two runs at this track around a bend were wins. Styleman was a dominant maiden winner.

Betting Confidence: There are honestly four or five really good winning chances. Zunbaqa has the runs on the board, while Trenchant may prove the best value.

R3 UCI Stakes (1800m)

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Throssell ($4.20)

2nd: 7. Highlad ($6.50)

3rd: 4. Kent ($10)

4th: 9. Captain Duffy ($26)

Betting: Throssell has been $5 into $4.20, while Wimborne, who won impressively last week in the country, has been $26 into $21. Market will change assuming Inference comes out after running at MV Friday,

Summary: Most of these are stepping up in distance for the first time, which makes it a hard race to read. Throssell looks every bit the stayer having beaten less than a length over 1400m last time. The Kiwi Highlad comes off wins over 1200 and 1340m, but looks bred to stay and has Oliver on board. Kent looks to have considerable staying potential off its most recent run in Sydney, while Captain Duffy could be the best of the outsiders.

Betting Confidence: This is always a difficult race in which to back a winner, but confident Throssell has the class and experience to test most of these.

R4: Gilgai Stakes – 1200m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Under the Louvre ($2.70)

2nd: 4. Faatinah ($4.80)

3rd: 5. Generalife ($13)

4th: 3. Stratum Star ($7)

Betting: Under The Louvre has drifted slightly from $2.50 out to $2.70. We’ve Got This has moved from $9 into $8.

Summary: Tricky little sprint, but fancy Under The Louvre has got the class edge on them is this. Missed a Group 1 last week because of the wide barrier. The straight is some query. Faatinah certainly relished the straight six when last here, winning a Group 2 easily. Is the main challenger. Generalife was good last time without threatening. His Flemington form measures up well. Stratum Star Is class galloper resuming.

Betting Confidence: Under The Louvre is the one to beat, but not keen on the short price, will be having another each-way play on our old mate Generalife here.

R5 The Bart Cummings – 2500m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 3. Almandin ($2.60)

2nd: 2. Excess Knowledge ($10)

3rd: 7. Zanteca ($14)

4th: 1. Almoonqith ($13)

Betting: Almandin has been out slightly to $2.60 but is still the horse most punters are interested in. Stablemate Aloft has been $6 into $5. Vengeur Masque has been $26 into $21.

Summary: A free pass to the Melbourne Cup awaits the winner here, hence why it’s such a strong field. Almandin was very good last week and looks primed for a Cup tilt. But there is not much of a gap between he and the likes of both Excess Knowledge and Zanteca, who fought out, literally, the Lexus over this track and distance last year. They are both great odds as is last year’s Geelong Cup winner Almoonqith.

Betting Confidence: Almandin could prove too classy for these, but again, the short odds worry us. Keener on the each-way value around both Excess Knowledge and Zanteca.

R6 – Edward Manifold Stakes – 1600m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 1. Chipanda ($8)

2nd: 2. Exocet ($5)

3rd: 5. Eleanora ($6.50)

4th: 4. Smart As You Think ($8.50)

Betting: Eleanora has had plenty of support, backed in from $8 into $6.50, while Exocet has been $4.60 out to $5 in what is an extremely open race.

Summary: This is always a key race for those horses on an Oaks campaign and this year is no exception. Think Chipanda is the best value here and should improve markedly third-up after a bit of chequered run last time in Sydney. Exocet comes off two good wins and is right in this, while Eleanora was a good maiden winner at her first Australian start. Smart As You Think looks to be headed in the right direction.

Betting Confidence: Confident the $8 about Chipanda could represent the best value all day.

R7 Turnbull Stakes – 2000m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 4. Hartnell ($1.90)

2nd: 9. Jameka ($5)

3rd: 1. Preferment ($26)

4th: 7. Set Square ($21)

Betting: The money has kept coming for Hartnell, who opened $2.10 and is now $1.90. Jameka has been very steady at $5.

Summary: Hartnell’s spring will turn on his performance here. If he wins well, he may head to the Cox Plate to take on Winx, while the Caulfield Cup may be on the agenda. His form this campaign makes him a deserved top pick and he looks the one to beat. His three runs in Melbourne have seem him fail to run a place. That is the query. Jameka is travelling very well and she does love this track. Preferment has won three Group 1s at Flemington, including two at the 2000m. Huge overs. Set Square has done little wrong this campaign and she should peak here.

Betting Confidence: Hartnell has a class gap on his rivals and is the bet of the day in our opinion, even at the $1.90. Preferment at $26 is super value.

R8 Blazer Stakes -1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 11. Telopea ($4.40)

2nd: 12. French Emotion ($5.50)

3rd:  6. Vibrant Rouge ($14)

4th: 10 Manageress

Betting: French Emotion ($7.50 into $5.50) and Telopea ($6 into $4.40) are popular.

Summary: Typically tough mares race. Thinking Telopea can rediscover her winning form here. Won over this track and distance in July and hasn’t had a great deal of luck of late. French Emotion has plenty of potential and will improve fourth-up here. Vibrant Rouge gets back to her preferred distance, while Manageress loves Flemington.

Betting Confidence: Such a tough race, hard to predict an outcome with any real confidence. Very confident Telopea will run first three, however.

R9 Paris Lane Hcp – 1400m

Tips: (Odds: Sportsbet)

1st: 4. Federal ($5.50)

2nd: 11. Ulmann ($3.80)

3rd: 9. Santa Ana Lane ($5)

4th: 10. Dan Zephyr ($17)

Betting: Santa Ana Lane has been $6 into $5, while the other two favourites Federal and Ulmann, have drifted slightly.

Summary: A tough race with so many diverse formlines, but feel Federal will bring his best here. The 1400m is ideal and he should get last crack at them. Ulmann is in great form and has to be included. The step up to the 1400m will suit Santa Ana Lane, who has returned in good form. Dan Zephyr represents the value having won twice over the Flemington 1400m earlier this year.

Betting Confidence: Confidence if Federal brings his best here, he should be winning. Dan Zephyr is clearly the best value.


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