Thu, Jul 7, 3:29pm by Kevin Pitstock
AFL – Round 16
The Eagles ($2.00) host the Cats ($1.82) in a huge match for both teams on Friday night. The Cats dropped their first game last week and will be keen to hit back immediately, while the Eagles have been the most improved side in the competition and have gone from wooden spooners to being a genuine top 4 chance. The loss of mobile big man Lynch is a blow for their chances.
The Bombers ($1.53) and Tigers ($2.50) meet again with the Bombers finally back in some form while the Tigers were spanked last week. It’s a tough one for punters as both teams have been a little hard to follow this year. Looking for value, the Bombers started well last week, while the Tigers are consistently being led at quarter time so the $1.67 for the Bombers to lead at Quarter Time could be a good option.
The Saints ($1.27) have quietly been getting their confidence back and with Riewoldt back to his best, they can pick up another win on the road against Port ($3.75), keeping alive their finals chances.
The Blues ($1.28) are hot favourites to knock over the Dogs ($3.65), but punters should be cautious about taking the short odds on the Blues. They had a soft win while the Dogs have certainly improved and are looking more confident with the move of Higgins to the defence a major factor.
NRL – Round 18
Friday kicks off with the Eels ($2.12) at home to the Tigers ($1.72). The Eels are quickly running out of time to get their season on track, while the Tigers had the week off so should be ready to come out firing following two straight losses. The Tigers have the more potent line up and should get the points.
The Bulldogs ($2.70) play the Storm ($1.46) in Adelaide and the punters will expect the Storm to continue their consistent form. The Bulldogs are in the glut of teams on the outskirts of the eight so a win here would be crucial for them, but the professional Storm featuring a host of Queensland Origin stars will prove a tough challenge for the Dogs.
Manly ($1.28), with the freshen up of the bye host the Rabbitohs ($3.65) and should secure another win. Monday’s match between the Knights ($1.30) and Cowboys ($3.55) looked like being a beauty, but the loss of Thurston to a season ending knee injury in the Origin is a massive blow for the Cowboys. The Knights at home should be too strong.
Race 6 – Winter Championship Final
If he can get a run Mr Make Believe (3rd emergency) looks very hard to beat. He’s one seven of eleven starts and appears to be this season’s Doubtful Jack. If he doesn’t get a run, it’s a fairly open race and Luke Nolen would then take the ride on Rocky Times who has raced consistently in the heats.
Tough Future represents nice value for punters, particularly if he gets the wet conditions to suit. He should cross form his wide gate, take the lead and be in it for a long way.
Prepared to risk Philda with his big weight of 59kg. He’s in great form but is only a small horse so the weight might prove too much for him.
Race 7 – Victorian Sprint Final
This a really strong race with plenty of genuine chances. Tipping Elumino to go back to back in this race. He’s had the perfect preparation with a nice effort last time at Moonee Valley.
His biggest danger will be stable mate Mid Summer Music. She’s recorded two strong wins in mares grade and although up in class here she looks good enough and we’ve already seen some support for her in early betting.
Gran Sasso and Perturbo are both track specialists and will be competitive. Both have big weights but cannot be ignored.
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