Thu, Jul 4, 5:10pm by Rob Sheeley
Match: South Sydney Rabbitohs vs New Zealand Warriors – NRL Round 17
When/Where: 6:30pm, Saturday 6th July at NIB Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com
This game is shaping up as one of the most mouth watering clashes of the season. The competition leaders South Sydney Rabbitohs have an astounding record, they have won thirteen of their fifteen games this season. They face the form team of the NRL, the New Zealand Warriors. The Warriors have won five games on end, the best current form of any team in the competition.
On closer inspection, there are even more revealing facts in relation to this clash. The Warriors have an astounding record against the Rabbitohs both overall and in recent times. There is also the added variable of the game being in Perth.
Even with all that in mind, the Rabbitohs have come up very short priced favourites in the head to head market. They may need to buck the trends of recent history to win, but they have been doing that all season.
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The Rabbitohs welcome back their Origin stars this week. They also have the luxury of George Burgess returning from injury, but he has been named outside the squad on an extended bench. He is expected to nudge his brother Tom out of the team and play as part of the seventeen.
1. Greg Inglis
2. Nathan Merritt
3. Bryson Goodwin
4. Dylan Walker
5. Andrew Everingham
6. John Sutton
7. Adam Reynolds
8. Dave Tyrrell
9. Issac Luke
10. Roy Asotasi
11. Chris McQueen
12. Ben Te’o
13. Sam Burgess
14. Nathan Peats
15. Ben Lowe
16. Jeff Lima
17. George Burgess
18. Tom Burgess
19. Justin Hunt
22. Dylan Farrell
The Rabbitohs continued their stellar season last weekend with a crushing win over Canberra despite being severely understrength. It has been close to a flawless year for South Sydney with just two losses to date. They have been a solid team to bet on in head to head markets as well as linking them in multi bets.
They take on a side who they have struggled against in the past and who they were very lucky to beat earlier in the season. They should be more than prepared for this match and will see it as a big challenge and test of their credentials.
Russell Packer and Manu Vatuvei are in doubt for the Warriors but have been named in the starting line up. An extended bench has been named should they need to be covered.
1. Kevin Locke
2. Glen Fisiiahi
3. Dane Nielsen
4. Konrad Hurrell
5. Manu Vatuvei
6. Thomas Leuluai
7. Shaun Johnson
8. Sam Rapira
9. Nathan Friend
10. Ben Matulino
11. Feleti Mateo
12. Simon Mannering (c)
13. Elijah Taylor
14. Russell Packer
15. Jacob Lillyman
16. Todd Lowrie
17. Dominique Peyroux
18. Ngani Laumape
20. Suaia Matagi
21. Charlie Gubb
The Warriors have turned their season around with five wins in a row, and they defeated two top-four teams in the process. This week they face a real litmus test in South Sydney who have become the competition benchmark. Given that the game is in Perth, it may be worth considering that the Warriors are used to traveling long distances to play on a regular basis whereas the Rabbitohs aren’t.
One thing the Warriors have done in many games this season is start well. They have lost a few games after having a healthy lead, including the last time they played the Rabbitohs. Based on that, it might be worth thinking of a half time/full time double with the Warriors/Rabbitohs combination.
Lat week, South Sydney showed just how much depth the club has, but that won’t be required this week with the cardinal and myrtles back to full strength. That should be a big boost for the team and a key consideration when having a bet.
Given their recent form, a big occasion like this could well see the Warriors putting pressure on themselves. After playing many weeks with a “nothing to lose” attitude they now face the burden of expectation, both from their fans and themselves.
While recent history favours the Warriors heavily, there is no doubting that this South Sydney outfit is the best they’ve fielded in many a year. I think they can overcome all the hurdles of the past and win here. The Warriors can probably stay within twelve points if they play as well as they have been, which may provide us with some betting value.
Rabbitohs by 10.
Rabbitohs – $1.32 Head to Head with IASbet.com
Sea Eagles – $3.50
This H2H market falls pretty well in line with our prediction, but the Rabbitohs could well be backable at these odds. If you don’t mind taking the shorter prices or you are looking to kick start a multi, this could be right up your alley.
Rabbitohs 1-12 – $3.00 with IASbet.com
Rabbitohs 13+ – $2.20
Warriors 1-12 – $4.50
Warriors 13+ – $8.50
Given that I think the Warriors can stay within twelve of the bunnies, the margin market looks to be our value bet of the big three markets. At $3.00 I think it is well worth a bet here.
Rabbitohs -8.5 – $1.92
Warriors +8.5 – $1.92
This market is set dangerously close to my prediction. I’d only bet here if you think the outcome is more likely to suit this bet. But for me, it’s a little too close for comfort. That said, I’d stick with the Rabbitohs to cover the line.
For the first try scorer of the match, I like the Rabbitohs try scoring machine Nathan Merritt. He is currently $9 with IASbet.
If you prefer backing a Warriors player to score first, I’d recommend Glen Fisiiahi who is at $12.
As I also mentioned earlier, I’d be tempted to speculate on the Warriors/Rabbitohs combination in the half time/full time market. This combo is currently paying and attractive $8.00 with IASbet.com
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