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Roosters V Sea Eagles – NRL Grand Final Odds & Tips

Thu, Oct 3, 12:46pm by Rob Sheeley

Match: Sydney Roosters v Manly Sea Eagles – NRL Grand Final
When/Where: 7:15pm, Sunday 6th October at ANZ Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com

2013 NRL Grand FinalIt’s the battle of the birds in the 2013 NRL Grand Final! The Sydney Roosters tackle the Manly Sea Eagles in the first decider featuring two New South Wales teams since 2010, and only the second since 2004. NSW fans will flock to ANZ Stadium and it should reach its full capacity of around 80,000. The atmosphere will be electric.

We had a terrific weekend in NRL betting last weekend, selecting both preliminary final winners and both of our best tips paying handsome dividends. No reason why we can’t have similar results this week.

Punters have rallied behind the Sydney Roosters in the H2H betting thus far, with the minor premiers now at $1.67 to hoist the trophy aloft on Sunday night. The Sea Eagles are currently at $2.25 to win the match and title.

The Roosters have won all three encounters against the Sea Eagles this year, justifying their short-priced favouritism. In Round 9 the Roosters led 8-0 at half-time before running away to win 16-4. In Round 16, the Roosters also led 8-0 at half-time and the score read 18-12 by the final bell. In Week 1 of the finals, a 4-0 lead at the main break for the Roosters was enough to clinch victory as scores remained the same at full-time. With a definite trend in the leader and scoreline at half-time, this is a significant form guide for us to craft a possible bet.

  • The Sea Eagles and Roosters have met 132 times in their history. Manly has won 83 of those matches, Sydney has won 46, and there have been two draws.
  • The Roosters hold a better recent record over Manly having won three of their last four matches.
  • The Roosters have also won three of their last four matches played at ANZ Stadium.
  • The Sea Eagles have won eight of their last 10 matches played at ANZ.
  • Sydney has won a total of 12 premierships throughout its illustrious history, while Manly holds eight titles of its own.

Sydney Roosters: Team & Form – LLWWW

Roosters coach Trent Robinson named the same 17 players who defeated Newcastle last weekend. Boyd Cordner and Luke O’Donnell were both overlooked. Plenty of pundits however are willing to suggest Cordner will be a late inclusion and play.

1. Anthony Minichiello (c)
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Michael Jennings
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
6. James Maloney
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Sam Moa
11. Aidan Guerra
12. Sonny Bill Williams
13. Frank-Paul Nuuausala

Interchange:

14. Daniel Mortimer
15. Mitchell Aubusson
16. Isaac Liu
17. Dylan Napa

The Roosters further validated their claim as the best side in the competition last weekend, disposing of the Knights methodically and emphatically 40-14.

The victory was an exhibition of the Roosters’ class and ability. With the game was on the line, the Roosters shifted from third gear to fourth and ran over the top of the Newcastle side. An ominous sign for the Sea Eagles who are coming in to the Grand Final on the back of three physically demanding matches.

Trent Robinson was crowned coach of the year this week; a brilliant accomplishment in his rookie season. Perfection in Rugby League might be a Sisyphean task but that has not stopped Robinson from striving for such a feat.

Manly Sea Eagles: Team & Form – WLLWW

The Sea Eagles have named David Gower who will replace Richie Fa’aoso in the decider. Scans confirmed a fractured vertebrae in Fa’aoso’s neck which he suffered against South Sydney last weekend, and he will remain in a neck-brace for up to six weeks. Suggestions have been flying around that Joe Gulavao, who has been out with a long term injury, might come in to take Fa’aoso’s place at the expense of Gower, but we will have to play the wait-and-see game.

1. Brett Stewart
2. Jorge Taufua
3. Jamie Lyon (c)
4. Steve Matai
5. David Williams
6. Kieran Foran
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Brenton Lawrence
9. Matt Ballin
10. Brent Kite
11. Anthony Watmough
12. Justin Horo
13. Glenn Stewart

Interchange:

14. David Gower
15. Jamie Buhrer
16. Tom Symonds
17. George Rose
18. James Hasson
19. Peta Hiku

For many non-Manly fans, the Sea Eagles are the team they love to hate. Maybe it’s their confronting, in-your-face style of play. Maybe it’s a hangover from their big spending ‘silvertails’ days. Or perhaps it’s a dislike of their coach Geoff Toovey for his seemingly constant tirades on officials. Love ’em or hate ’em, they are the real deal and only one win away from their ninth premiership.

Manly silenced a host of critics last week when it showed great tenacity and toughness to defeat the Rabbitohs 30-20. Many thought due to the Sea Eagles playing such taxing and exhausting football in a short period of time, that the Rabbitohs would be able to overpower them. But a combination of experience and guile showed why Manly has had such success during this time of the year over the last two decades.

The Sea Eagles have slowly but surely closed the gap between themselves and the Roosters. While they haven’t been able to produce a win over Sydney this year yet, they have reduced their losing margins from 12 points, down to six points, and down to four points. If that trend continues, they might just reduce the margin enough to find themselves in front by the final siren.

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Grand Final Prediction

The two most physical forward packs are set to go toe-to-toe for the fourth and final time in 2013 for Rugby League supremacy in Australia. Both forward units have produced more big hits than Elvis Presley did. We’re set for what should be an engrossing spectacle.

The 4-0 qualifying final result demonstrated how effective the two defensive lines were; harder to crack than the Da Vinci code.

But expect both sides to grab scoring opportunities by the scruff of the neck: the Roosters and Sea Eagles have some of the classiest finishers at their disposal, all of whom are capable of creating something from nothing and giving their side every conceivable chance to register points.

For the Roosters, Michael Jennings and Roger Tuivasa-Sheck are atop of that list. Give Jennings a modicum of space and you can put down your glasses. Tuivasa-Sheck has footwork to rival Mr. Bojangles and can weave his way through traffic stunningly. He a try scoring machine.

For the Sea Eagles, wily fullback Brett Stewart and blockbusting winger Jorge Taufua could very well wreak havoc. Stewart is one of the most prolific try scorers in the game’s history and his record speaks for itself. Taufua possesses the perfect blend of brute strength and agility; a real handful for the best of any defensive lines. Throw in savvy veteran Jamie Lyon and there’s no questioning the Sea Eagles’ myriad of attacking options.

This game could come down to two simple things; experience and execution. The Sea Eagles have a slight edge when it comes to experience in grand finals, but I think the ability of the Roosters to execute under pressure and maintain a high-intensity level for 80 minutes is streets ahead of anyone in the competition. And based on that edge in class, I’m banking on Anthony Minichello to be lifting the trophy come Sunday night.

Roosters by 10.

Head-To-Head Odds

Roosters: $1.67
Sea Eagles: $2.25

The Roosters have defeated their opposition three times this season and remain at $1.67. Too good to ignore and I’ll be betting with conviction here, and suggest an early investment.

Margin

Roosters 1-12: $2.85 with IASbet.com
Roosters 13+: $3.85
Sea Eagles 1-12: $3.25
Sea Eagles 13+: $6.00

A 1-12 winning margin to the Roosters is a great value bet at $2.85. The match looms as a very close encounter and none of the clashes between these two sides this season have been decided by more than 12 points. I can’t see this one being any different, so my suggestion is to stay within those confines whichever way you go.

Line Betting

Roosters -2.5: $1.92
Sea Eagles +2.5: $1.92

The line is indicative of the tight expectations of the game, but with one unconverted try enough to cover the line, I’d be keen on the Roosters to win by more than two-and-a-half points.

First Try Scorer & Other Exotics

Winger Roger Tuivasa-Sheck for the Roosters is currently $11 with IASbet.com, while Jorge Taufua for the Sea Eagles is also good value at the same price.

In the total points market, the Sea Eagles to score no more than 14 points in the match is quite attractive at $1.82. You can also get odds of $1.44 for Manly to score less than eight-and-a-half points in the opening half, and while that price might be a bit short, if history is anything to go by, then the chances of that occurring are very likely. Manly has entered the main break in each game against the Roosters this season with a score of zero.

Tip for the Clive Churchill medal: Sonny Bill Williams at $6.


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