Fri, Jun 28, 1:31pm by Rob Sheeley
Match: Sydney Roosters vs Manly Sea Eagles – NRL Round 16
When/Where: 7:00pm, Monday 1st July at Allianz Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com
The NRL serves up another top shelf edition of Monday night football this week with two top-four teams going head to head.
For the third placed Roosters it will be a case of looking to maintain their winning form and head onwards & upwards toward the playoffs in a top four position. For the Sea Eagles things are a little more crucial. They are currently slinging onto fourth place and will be very determined to cement a place in the competition top quartet in the coming weeks.
On recent form, it would be logical to lean towards the Roosters here. But as we sort out the injury toll in the wash-up from State of Origin we will need to factor those sort of variables in before we invest on this match.
One main concern is that Roosters five eighth James Maloney suffered a suspected fractured cheekbone, so keep an eye on final teams in that respect. The head to head prices would probably indicate that they were framed with Maloney involved, definitely something to consider.
The Sea Eagles had the luxury of a bye last weekend which may have been just what the doctor ordered to assist players in getting over niggling injuries. The Roosters showed that they can win without their representative stars with a flashy win over the Bulldogs.
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Roosters coach Trent Robinson has made a handful of changes to the side that defeated the Bulldogs last weekend, with the three Origin stars and one international returning to the line-up. Prop Jared Waerea-Hargreaves returns from suspension while Blues duo Jennings and Pearce all return (James Maloney’s possible fractured cheekbone makes him an unlikely starter).
Their comeback sees last week’s halves pairing of Daniel Mortimer and Williams, along with Mitchell Aubusson, all return to their usual roles in the side, with Williams and Aubusson named in the back row and Mortimer on the bench (although he may start given Maloney’s injury). Aidan Guerra and Frank-Paul Nuuausala also return to the bench. Prop Waerea-Hargreaves
1. Anthony Minichiello (c)
2. Daniel Tupou
3. Michael Jennings
4. Shaun Kenny-Dowall
5. Roger Tuivasa-Sheck
6. James Maloney
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Jared Waerea-Hargreaves
9. Jake Friend
10. Luke O’Donnell
11. Mitchell Aubusson
12. Sonny Bill Williams
13. Boyd Cordner
14. Daniel Mortimer
15. Frank-Paul Nuuausala
16. Aidan Guerra
17. Sam Moa
18. Isaac Liu
The Roosters are slowly shaping into a complete package if last week is anything to go by. They had already proven their aptitude in both attack and defence this season, but last week we saw something else; depth. Despite missing key players they were too good for their more fancied rivals the Bulldogs in a 20-18 win.
With the benefit of so many class players returning, this could be a good chance to snag the Roosters at a good price. Even if Maloney is absent, his replacement Daniel Mortimer proved himself a more than capable replacement last week and he certainly has the benefit of NRL experience on his side.
The Sea Eagles have named an unchanged line up to the one that went down to the Bulldogs in golden point in Round 14. There are some strong whispers around that Brett Stewart may well be a late inclusion into the Manly line up but it remains hearsay at this stage.
1. Peta Hiku
2. Jorge Taufua
3. Jamie Lyon
4. Steve Matai
5. David Williams
6. Kieran Foran
7. Daly Cherry-Evans
8. Brenton Lawrence
9. Matt Ballin
10. Brent Kite
11. Anthony Watmough
12. Justin Horo
13. Glenn Stewart
14. Jamie Buhrer
15. Tom Symonds
16. James Hasson
17. George Rose
The Sea Eagles have had a week off to freshen up courtesy of a bye, and it may have been timely after they dropped two matches in a row. They come into this game as outsiders and are well and truly capable of an upset.
If the Stewart rumors are true and the Roosters lose a chief playmaker in Maloney, it could be an opportune time to have a head to head bet.
The Roosters look in great form but there is one factor that has seemingly taken a slightly downhill turn in the last three outings; their defence. The Roosters have conceded a total of fifty five points in their last three matches, which is much more than they had been earlier in the season. The upside of that is that they managed to win two of those three games.
The Sea Eagles will be keen to atone for their golden point loss last time they played. They came from nowhere and had all the momentum leading into the overtime period only to lose controversially. That would have left a bitter taste in their mouths and, coupled with the week off they would be champing at the bit to get back on the field.
This game is a little tricky to line up due to the probable omission of Maloney. I think the Roosters are currently a better all round team and playing with a bit more confidence. Earlier in the week prior to State of Origin I predicted they’d win by ten points. Despite the changes, I will stick with my convictions and tip a Rooster victory.
Roosters by 10.
Roosters – $1.72 Head to Head with IASbet.com
Sea Eagles – $2.15
With this market fairly indicative of how close the teams are, the H2H prices both offer a reasonable return. I’m happy to be backing the Roosters head to head here.
Roosters 1-12 – $2.88 with IASbet.com
Roosters 13+ – $3.60
Sea Eagles 1-12 – $3.40
Sea Eagles 13+ – $5.50
The favourite option in the margin betting falls in line with my prediction. Whilst the price is not tremendous value it is still more than backable.
Roosters -2.5 – $1.92 with IASbet.com
Sea Eagles +2.5 – $1.92
This is possibly the best value of the lot when it comes to the big three betting markets on this game (H2H, margin and line). The fact that winning by just one unconverted try is all that the Roosters need to do to cover the spread means that the $1.92 looks very alluring. I’d be comfortable betting with confidence in this market.
For the first try scorer of the match I like Roger Tuivasa-Sheck for the Roosters. He is currently $12 with IASbet.
If you prefer backing a Sea Eagles player to score first, I’d recommend Jorge Taufua who is at $11.
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