Tue, Jun 25, 9:17am by Rob Sheeley
Match: Queensland Maroons vs New South Wales Blues – State of Origin Game 2
When/Where: 8:00pm, Wednesday 26th June at Suncorp Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com
Queensland find themselves with their backs to the wall for game two of the 2013 Origin series. After being outplayed in game one it is a real do or die situation for the Maroons, facing a slightly unfamiliar situation.
What Queensland do have in their favour is the fact that they return to their fortress that is Suncorp Stadium. They have an impeccable record there, and also have a penchant for rising to the task when they face adversity.
As expected, there is a myriad of media hype surrounding the match, with anticipation reaching boiling point. The Blues will be desperate to end the seven year reign of the Queensland side, and in the process remove the monkey from their back.
Queensland may well be very short to win this game, but still remain a whopping $2.75 to win the series. Should they win here they will shorten considerably, so this may be a good time to back them if you think they are capable of pulling it off.
The Maroons have made two changes to the team that lost game one in Sydney. David Shillington and Ashley Harrison have been left out of the team, with Daly Cherry-Evans and Josh Papali coming in.
1. Billy Slater
2. Darius Boyd
3. Greg Inglis
4. Justin Hodges
5. Brent Tate
6. Johnathan Thurston
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Matt Scott
9. Cameron Smith (c)
10. Nate Myles
11. Chris McQueen
12. Sam Thaiday
13. Corey Parker
14. Daly Cherry-Evans
15. Ben Te’o
16. Matt Gillett
17. Josh Papalii
Queensland look to defend their seven year dynasty of State of Origin in this match here. They looked a little below their best in game one, and you can guarantee they will be very sharp here in front of a parochial Queensland crowd.
There has been much written about the aging nature of the Queensland team, but with that comes much experience at this level. Most teams would love of have that luxury. The short head to head price indicates that many think the Maroons are a pretty good thing here.
The Blues have been forced to make three changes from the side that won game one. An injury to Jarryd Hayne sees former miscreant Josh Dugan get a shot at redemption. Suspensions to both James Tamou and Blake Ferguson have given both Aaron Woods and all round good guy Nathan Merrit a well deserved crack at the Origin stage.
1. Josh Dugan
2. Brett Morris
3. Michael Jennings
4. Josh Morris
5. Nathan Merritt
6. James Maloney
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Paul Gallen (c)
9. Robbie Farah (vc)
10. Aaron Woods
11. Ryan Hoffman
12. Luke Lewis
13. Greg Bird
14. Andrew Fifita
15. Trent Merrin
16. Josh Reynolds
17. Anthony Watmough
New South Wales looked the real deal in game one of the series, and definitely indicated that 2013 is the best chance they have had in many years. Their form at Suncorp Stadium leaves a bit to be desired, and coupled with the weight of expectation will be a real test.
For a punter, the Blues definitely offer value if you believe they can clinch the series by winning game two. At face value, $2.60 H2H for a team who won game one does look attractive.
|Bet on Queensland vs NSW|
|$100 Free Bet for New Punters|
Queensland will be buoyed by a massive home crowd who will be baying for New South Wales blood. This in itself is a massive factor for punters to consider. New South Wales have struggled to win at this venue and will need to buck the trend of history to win here.
The absence of the Blues superstar Jarryd Hayne will put a great weight of expectation on his replacement Josh Dugan. There is no doubting Dugan’s ability, but he is yet to prove himself at this level and this is going to be the biggest match of his career.
Queensland have picked a more mobile pack that really only includes one traditional front row forward (Matt Scott). The added mobility may well indicate a more expansive game from the Maroons so we may well expect a higher scoring match, definitely something for margin and over/under investors to keep in mind.
Queensland have every reason to bounce back and approach this game full of vengeance, with plenty of ledgers to square up. This could well be one of the best State of Origin matches in recent history. With the home ground advantage and their history making run on the line, I have to tip the Maroons here.
Queensland by 8.
Queensland – $1.52 Head to Head with IASbet.com
Blues – $2.60
Queensland are distinct favourites here but still at very backable odds. With the series on the line I’m happy to take the $1.52 for a Maroons win.
Maroons 1-12 – $2.50 with IASbet.com
Maroons 13+ – $3.75
Blues 1-12 – $3.25
Blues 13+ – $10
Bookmakers appeared to have agreed with our prediction and have installed the Maroons 1-12 option as favourite. The $2.50 still looks a reasonable price and I’d be more than happy to invest.
Maroons -4.5 – $1.92 with IASbet.com
Blues +4.5 – $1.92
The line has been set reasonably close in this match. A converted try would be enough for the Maroons to cover the spread and I think they are more than capable of doing that.
For the first try scorer of the match I like Brent Tate for Queensland. He is currently $15 with IASbet.com
If you prefer backing a New South Wales player to score first, I’d recommend Nathan Merritt who is at $11.
I like the IASbet “Alternate Winning Margin 2” market with Queensland 7-12 offering a juicy $5.50.
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