Tue, Jul 16, 9:58am by Rob Sheeley
Match:New South Wales Blues vs Queensland Maroons – State of Origin Game 3
When/Where: 8:00pm, Wednesday 17th July 2013 at ANZ Stadium
AUD $100 Free Bet: www.IASbet.com
This is it, the moment that New South Wales have been waiting for. After seven long years without a series victory, they now host a game in Sydney and a win will end the longest State of Origin drought since the games inception in 1980.
Queensland went into game two with everything on the line and delivered their best with an emphatic 26-6 win. They come into this game with a clear edge in experience and the nous to win these pressure games.
New South Wales will also be without two key players for this match in Paul Gallen and Jarryd Hayne. That, coupled with Queensland’s dominant performance in game two has been reflected in the betting markets. Punters are very keen on the Maroons and it shows in the head to head price ($1.57). It is going to take a special effort from the Blues to win this big match.
The New South Wales selectors have made a couple of forced changes from the side that lost by 26-6 in game two. James McManus comes onto the wing for Nathan Merritt, the position was originally filled by Jarryd Hayne who has had to withdraw with an injury.
Aaron Woods will remain at prop whilst James Tamou comes back into the team after being dropped for game two due to disciplinary reasons. Tamou will take the place of injured captain Paul Gallen who will no doubt be a big loss for the Blues.
Selectors have also replaced interchange utility Josh Reynolds with Boyd Cordner which will mean the bench features all forwards for this match.
1. Josh Dugan
2. Brett Morris
3. Michael Jennings
4. Josh Morris
5. James McManus
6. James Maloney
7. Mitchell Pearce
8. Aaron Woods
9. Robbie Farah (c)
10. James Tamou
11. Ryan Hoffman
12. Luke Lewis
13. Greg Bird
14. Andrew Fifita
15. Trent Merrin
16. Anthony Watmough
17. Boyd Cordner
After winning game one by 14-6 in Sydney, things looked positive for New South Wales. Feelings were very strong that this may be the year. They look to have a group of players who have more self belief than teams of recent times and should they be able to put everything together on the night. A win is not beyond the realm of possibility.
The result in game two was far from what this side would have expected or hoped for, and has seen the betting sway heavily in the direction of their opposition. That has meant that punters who are faithful to the New South Wales cause have a good reason to bet.
|Bet on NSW vs Queensland|
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Queensland have shown complete and utter faith in the side that delivered a 26-6 victory in game two by selecting the same seventeen players for game three.
1. Billy Slater
2. Darius Boyd
3. Greg Inglis
4. Justin Hodges
5. Brent Tate
6. Johnathan Thurston
7. Cooper Cronk
8. Matt Scott
9. Cameron Smith (c)
10. Nate Myles
11. Chris McQueen
12. Sam Thaiday
13. Corey Parker
14. Daly Cherry-Evans
15. Ben Te’o
16. Matt Gillett
17. Josh Papalii
18. Jacob Lillyman
19. Will Chambers
Queensland reaffirmed their position as State of Origin masters in game two when they absolutely annihilated the New South Wales team 26-6 at Suncorp Stadium. The Maroons were dominant and seared to a convincing win buoyed by the massive, parochial home crowd.
It may be a little uncommon for this team to be playing for the series in a third game, but not so etching that they haven’t done successfully before. One thing that they do better than anyone is deliver the goods under pressure. Punters have backed the Maroons with the utmost confidence for many years now and this year is no different.
With it all on the line, there is insurmountable pressure for the New South Wales team to break the stranglehold that Queensland have on the State of Origin trophy. The way they deal with that pressure will be key. If the Blues let it get to them, it could spell disaster for New South Wales punters and fans.
Queensland will call on their plethora of experience and guile to take them to their eighth straight series victory. Five players will be vital for the Maroons; Inglis, Slater, Cronk, Thurston and Smith. Five of the best players in the world who could well harmonise to orchestrate the downfall of New South Wales.
My prediction for this match is based on the aforementioned experience and ability to perform under pressure that Queensland hold. The Blues have also lost a real match winner in Hayne and look to be up against it. The first twenty minutes could decide the match. If Queensland get off to a flyer things could get ugly for New South Wales.
Queensland by 12.
New South Wales – $2.45
Queensland – $1.57 Head to Head with IASbet.com
Punters have come hard for Queensland to win, and despite the fact that they are playing away from home, they are pronounced favourites. They still look a good bet at $1.57 based on their game two dominance.
New South Wales 1-12 – $3.10
New South Wales 13+ – $9.50
Queensland 1-12 – $2.60 with IASbet.com
Queensland 13+ – $3.75
This looks a good bet. I think Queensland will be too good for New South Wales and the occasion of the match should keep it close enough for the 1-12 result. Punters have agreed and the option is the favourite, but it is still nice odds.
New South Wales +4.5 – $1.92
Queensland -4.5 – $1.92 with IASbet.com
This is the best bet of the match for me and I’ll be betting with confidence. The Maroons should have little difficulty covering the line of -4.5 points which is just one converted try.
For the first try scorer of the match I like the Maroons winger Darius Boyd. He is currently $10 with IASbet
If you prefer backing a New South Wales player to score first, I’d recommend James McManus who is at $12.
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