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NRL Round 24 Betting 2010

Wed, Aug 18, 7:39pm by Kevin Pitstock

Last week in NRL round 23 betting we were a little below par again. My upset didn’t come off so I scored 4/8, while our top NRL commentator “deeross” scored 5/8.

This week it doesn’t get any easier, but in comparison to previous weeks my tips and predictions are straight forward.

This weeks odds are presented by Sportingbet Australia.

Newcastle Knights vs Brisbane Broncos

The Knights have been good in recent weeks, especially at home. They took apart Manly and Canterbury at home before losing in New Zealand last week. They return home to play a Broncos team that is coming off the back of a home loss to the Parramatta Eels.
Knights vs Broncos Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Knights: $2.00
Broncos: $1.82

Margin Betting Odds

Knights 1-12: $3.65
Knights 13+: $4.00

Broncos 1-12: $3.50
Broncos 13+: $3.50
Predictions and Tips

Both of these teams are coming off a loss and will be looking to improve. The Knights are all but gone from the top 8 race, but the Broncos are still in it. This alone won’t be enough, because they are without Lockyer and are away from home.

This is a danger match for the Broncos, but if they are going to have any chance in the NRL 2010 season, it’s close to a must win game.

Prediction: Broncos win.

Penrith Panthers vs South Sydney Rabbitohs

The Panthers churned out yet another disappointing performance last week as they continue to fade into oblivion. The Rabbitohs are playing as best they can with a limited amount of troops going around. If Souths were at full strength, they’d be close to favourites here. The fact that Souths are depleted and the match is being played at Penrith gives them favouritism. Is that justified though?
Panthers vs Rabbitohs Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Panthers: $1.48
Rabbitohs: $2.65

Margin Betting Odds

Panthers 1-12: $3.10
Panthers 13+: $2.65

Rabbitohs 1-12: $4.25
Rabbitohs 13+: $6.15
Predictions and Tips

Without any real confidence most punters will be siding with the Panthers here. Souths went down fighting last week against the Storm after an extra time victory against the Tigers the week before.

Penrith started well against the Tigers last week, but faded late. They “should” have too much for Souths this week. I was let down by them last week, but I do expect them to be up for this one.

Prediction: Panthers win.

Manly Sea Eagles vs New Zealand Warriors

Despite losing 32-10 against the Dragons on Monday night, Manly played pretty well. If a couple of decisions had gone their way, it could have been a much tighter contest.

The Warriors keep ticking over victories and find themselves well within finals contention. Their away form is what still has question marks, and this week will provide good insight into how they’re going to perform in the finals away from home.
Sea Eagles vs Warriors Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Sea Eagles: $1.48
Warriors: $2.65

Margin Betting Odds

Sea Eagles 1-12: $3.10
Sea Eagles 13+: $2.65

Warriors 1-12: $4.25
Warriors 13+: $6.15
Predictions and Tips

If the Sea Eagles lose this game, they risk being outside the top 8. Their form is good enough to win this match at home, and I think they’ll do exactly that. The Warriors are still an unknown quantity, but I don’t think they have the quality across the park to win at Brookvale Oval this weekend.

Prediction: Sea Eagles win.

Melbourne Storm vs Cronulla Sharks

The Storm are still managing to grind out victories, without anything to play for. Cameron Smith has already confirmed this week that the Storm players are struggling to find motivation each week.

The Sharks played a high quality match against the Roosters last week and pulled out the upset of the round. They are heavy underdogs in this match, but their form in recent weeks suggests it could be closer than the online bookmakers are predicting.
Storm vs Sharks Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Storm: $1.28
Sharks: $3.70

Margin Betting Odds

Storm 1-12: $3.00
Storm 13+: $2.15

Sharks 1-12: $5.25
Sharks 13+: $10.00
Predictions and Tips

Could this be another upset-of-the-round victory for the Sharks? It quite possibly could be, but the Storm have had a habit of winning close matches at home this season. My tip is that for continue and another Storm 1-12 victory is on the cards.

Prediction: Storm win.

North Queensland Cowboys vs Cantebury Bulldogs

I’ve been giving the Cowboys a fair bit of praise in recent weeks, despite their losing form. They continue to get themselves into winning positions and doing nothing about it.

This week they take on another poor team in the Bulldogs. Does the fact that the Bulldogs are almost as bad as them mean they’ll finally come up with a win at home?
Cowboys vs Bulldogs Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Cowboys: $2.30
Bulldogs: $1.62

Margin Betting Odds

Cowboys 1-12: $4.00
Cowboys 13+: $4.85

Bulldogs 1-12: $3.10
Bulldogs 13+: $3.15
Predictions and Tips

The Bulldogs are way too short in this match. Perhaps I’ve been giving the Cowboys too much credit in recent weeks, but I can’t see too much difference between these two teams. The Bulldogs are away, which gives me even more doubt. I’m going with a Bulldogs win, but definitely won’t be betting on this match at those odds.

Prediction: Bulldogs win.

Canberra Raiders vs St George Illawarra Dragons

The Dragons have not won at Canberra Stadium since 1999. The Dragons hate playing the Raiders, who are their bogey team. The Raiders have already beaten the Dragons this season, albeit during State Of Origin.

Up until the return of Weyman a couple of weeks ago, the Dragons forward pack looked soft and impotent. This week will be a stern test for them as they take on the brute force of the Canberra forwards.
Raiders vs Dragons Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Raiders: $2.30
Dragons: $1.62

Margin Betting Odds

Raiders 1-12: $4.00
Raiders 13+: $4.85

Dragons 1-12: $3.10
Dragons 13+: $3.15
Predictions and Tips

The Dragons are gaining momentum after coming out of their mid-season slump. They’ve beaten what I believe to be their two biggest challengers in the Roosters and Sea Eagles in the past two weeks. Now they take on their bogey team in another big match for them.

I don’t think the Dragons will lose another game this year, and this week they’ll continue on their way to the 2010 NRL Premiership.

Prediction: Dragons win.

Parramatta Eels vs Wests Tigers

This match is tricky to predict. The Eels upset the Broncos last week, but can’t seem to perform on a consistent basis. They are at home against a team that they have a great record against, and the bookmakers believe they’re good things.

The Tigers are up against their bogey team, but keep finding ways to win. Every match they play they look like they’re going to lose, which makes bookmakers and punters uncertain about their prospects. The Tigers could win or lose this match by 20, what will it be?
Eels vs Tigers Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Eels: $1.71
Tigers: $2.15

Margin Betting Odds

Eels 1-12: $3.30
Eels 13+: $3.30

Tigers 1-12: $3.75
Tigers 13+: $4.50
Predictions and Tips

The Eels beat a Broncos team last week without Lockyer. Does that make them deserved favourites at home to a team equal 2nd on the ladder? The Eels have shown all year they can’t be trusted to perform each week.

That being said, the Tigers haven’t been playing well in the past weeks. They are away to their bogey team which is enough for me to tip the Eels.

Prediction: Eels win.

Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans

The Roosters well belted (literally) against the Dragons two weeks ago and I think that carried over last week against the Sharks. It was a very physical match against the Dragons, which could have deflated them some.

The Titans are flying high at the moment sitting in second place. They seem to be doing everything right, just a few weeks after everyone had written them off to be contending during the finals.
Roosters vs Titans Betting

Head to Head Betting Odds

Roosters: $1.60
Titans: $2.35

Margin Betting Odds

Roosters 1-12: $3.10
Roosters 13+: $3.10

Titans 1-12: $4.05
Titans 13+: $5.15
Predictions and Tips

This will be an entertaining match to watch. Both of these teams believe they are in with a good chance to win this season and have top four prospects. If the Roosters lose, that’ll be three consecutive defeats. If the Titans lose, it’ll show once again they’re incapable of winning important matches against the big teams.

I think the Roosters are a far superior side to the Titans. They are playing at home and should get the job done this week.

Prediction: Roosters win.

NRL Round 24 Best Bets

My best bet of the round is Manly to beat the Warriors @ $1.48. If you take the -7.5 you can get on @ $2.00.

The best value bets of the round come in the form of upsets. The two matches that I think are vulnerable to upsets are the Cowboys @ $2.30 and the Tigers @ $2.15.

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