Fri, Mar 11, 5:09pm by Kevin Pitstock
Sportsbet Australia presents “Catching the Worm”………an early bird look at the weekend’s racing.
A superb day’s racing at Flemington with seven Group races, three of them at the highest level. The Australian Cup (Race 7) looks to be an even race with no stand-out WFA performer. Our traders are happy to take on favourite Heart of Dreams. He had it all his way out in front in the St George Stakes and that is not likely to happen again and he is still a query at the 2000 metres.
Shocking is terrific value at $8.50. Loves Flemington and third up has been set for this race. Bart Cummings has a good record in this race so look for Precedence to be in the finish. On this day last year he won a 2000 metre race by 7 lengths.
Like Shocking and Precedence, Linton will also appreciate the big Flemington track and the addition of blinkers first time is a key gear change. Alcopop looms as the best ‘roughie’ in the race after returning to form winning the Kilmore Cup. Playing God is a risk as he is not up to this class as yet.
History will be made in the Newmarket Handicap (Race 6) when Black Caviar becomes the first horse in Australian racing to win its first ten starts. Despite the 58 kg something would have to go terribly wrong for her not to win. Most trainers have conceded they are running for second, however, our traders are confident that Star Witness will run the quinella and Hay List will fill the placings.
Star Witness got closest to the ‘great mare’ in the spring, while Hay List has done nothing wrong. Best ‘roughie’ is Beaded who was fantastic first up and is proven down the straight running second to Whitefriars in the Salinger Stakes last time in.
Our traders are so confident that sportsbet.com.au is offering double the odds on all horses except Black Caviar.
Black Caviar $1.28, Star Witness $19.00, Hay List $23.00, Beaded $31.00, Hinchinbrook $41.00, Response $51.00, Eagle Falls $51.00, Others $101.00 & above.
Race Four is the Group Two Blamey Stakes and our traders are very confident that this race belongs to Whobegotyou. He flew first up, is a proven Group One horse and at the set weights and penalties is a ‘good thing’.
The race looks to be a simple quinella race with Dao Dao, Whobegotyou’s only danger. He meets him 3kg better than the Futurity Stakes and ran third as favourite in this race last year. Spacecraft and Doubtful Jack will both get good runs on the pace but there is still a doubt over Doubtful Jack on a firm track. An easy race for punters around the top two picks.
Whobegotyou $1.80, Dao Dao $4.20, Spacecraft $6.50, Doubtful Jack $10.00, Roadtrain $19.00, Rockpecker $31.00, Fanjura $31.00, Others $41.00 & Above.
The Kewney Stakes (Race 5) is a much better race for punters with top trainer Peter Moody the key to the race. He has four runners in the race with three of them set to go to the front and race on the speed. Sayahailmary should lead with Do Ra Mi sitting outside of it and Zelsnitz getting a nice run in behind them.
Our traders expect both Do Ra Mi and Zelsnitz to be in the placings, however, they think Lee Freedman will spoil the party with Ain’tnofallenstar. The filly was brilliant in Adelaide and will be even better at Flemington. The kiwi Twilight Savings is the best ‘roughie’ in the race. She has good form at home behind the talented Jimmy Choux and is drawn to get a better run than when she resumed at the ‘Valley’. Brazilian Pulse first up against fitter horses is a ‘lay’ even though she is the best filly in the race.
Brazilian Pulse $5.50, Ain’tnofallenstar $6.50, Do Ra Mi $7.00, Zelsnitz $8.00, Divorces $8.00, Twilight Savings $9.00, Sayahailmary $9.00, Others $11.00 & Above.
At Warwick Farm on Saturday it seems strange that the main event for the day is the Randwick Guineas (Race 6) but that is the way it is. Ilovethiscity showed a good turn of foot to accelerate away with the Hobartville Stakes and a repeat of that performance will see him win again. He is tracking nicely for the Doncaster.
The Snowden pair of Skilled and Retrieve ran the placings behind Ilovethiscity and they again are the main dangers. Retrieve is possibly looking for further than Skilled who worked extremely hard with no cover last start and is drawn to get a better run here.
Pressday won a trial last week and trainer Chris Waller reckons he has ironed out his problems, but our traders aren’t convinced and are happy to lay him. Likewise Absolutelyawesome, who despite the confidence from the stable ran some questionable sectionals behind Bullbars. Best value is the Bart Cummings trained Goldstone who is now getting up to a more suitable distance.
The Two Year Olds compete in preparation for the Golden Slipper with the colts doing battle in the Group Three Skyline Stakes (Race 3). This is a weak race and whoever wins is unlikely to shorten for the Slipper unless he wins by ten lengths.
Written Consent has been runner-up at both starts and is the horse with the most scope for improvement so shapes as the best bet. Hot Snitzel has been gelded so effectively he is now “Luke Warm Snitzel” but his last start fourth was an eye catching run behind Pane In The Glass.
Uate has progressed nicely coming up from wins at Newcastle and on the Kensington track and he is the main danger here to Written Consent. Boys On Tour is a “lay” and our traders don’t have to tell you why because as everybody knows “what goes on while on tour, stays on tour”.
Written Consent $3.80, Hot Snitzel $4.20, Uate $4.20, Diamond To Pegasus $8.50, Irish Times $9.00, Boys On Tour $10.00, Others $17.00 & above.
The fillies go around in the following race the Embrace Stakes (Race 4) and it is a much stronger race than the colts. Karuta Queen accepted here, but will run in Canberra in the Black Opal, so Pane In The Glass is now the horse to beat. She is a very professional racehorse on the way up and is proven at 1200 metres.
Our traders think that the distance is the only doubt for Defiant Dame although she has prepared by winning two trials. Aerobatics has had only one start for one win and will have to improve to win again, but that is something trainer Peter Snowden does regularly with his young horses. Shared Reflections is the value in the race with Nash Rawiller going on a positive lead from the stable.
Karuta Queen (Not likely) $2.35, Pane In The Glass $4.80, Defiant Dame $5.00, Saramenha $8.50, Aerobatics $9.00, Shared Reflections $11.00, Others $34.00 & above.
In the Randwick City Stakes (Race 5) Lorne Dancer comes down to a more suitable class from Group One to Group Three, however with 58 kg our traders recommended being wary at the price. They are much more comfortable tipping Scottish Border, who while up in class is well placed on the limit of 53kg and is looking for 2100 metres.
Scouting Wide is also treated well at the weights and will get a much more patient ride from Rod Quinn. Larry’s Never Late needs the sting out of the ground and he won’t get that Saturday so will be “late” here. There has been good early money for Saint Encosta at odds. ($17.00-$12.00)
Lorne Dancer $3.80, Scottish Border $6.50, Scouting Wide $6.50, Strike One $8.00, Larry’s Never Late $8.50, Beijing Boy $9.00, Ironstein $9.00, Others $12.00 & above.
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