Thu, Mar 17, 4:57pm by Kevin Pitstock
Sportsbet.com.au presents “Catching the Worm”………an early bird look at the weekend’s racing.
The carnival moves to Sydney this weekend with Rosehill hosting six Group races although small fields, in particular early in the day, takes some shine off the day. The best betting race of the Group races is the Group One Coolmore Classic (Race 7).
Gai Waterhouse trained More Strawberries in blinkers on Thursday morning and she flew. The fact that she is prepared to pay the fine for a late gear change and put the shades on is a crucial pointer here. She has drawn out wide but our traders think she can get across and sit outside the leader Montana Flyer and is terrific each way value.
Melito is an absolute lay and cannot win with 59.5kg. She may even get posted out wide. We will be taking her on here. Aloha is up from Melbourne and despite another rise in class she will appreciate the drop in weight and the appointment of “Group One Glen Boss”. She is the main danger.
Our traders are prepared to say Palacio De Cristal can’t win at Rosehill while Jersey Lily can get the run of the race and figure in the finish once again. Best value in the race is Lovemelikearock, who is a second up specialist, has Corey Brown engaged and the blinkers first time, that’s three ticks for form analysts.
Once again the Ranvet Stakes (Race 5) has drawn a small field and once again there is a short priced favourite, this time Maluckyday. Our traders believe that while he deserves to be in the red after his slashing first up run in the Chipping Norton, he is second up on the way to the BMW.
With that in mind, the better choice is a “Sacred” one. Sacred Choice appeals at the better price of $6.00. The blinkers went back on last start and history shows she has never missed a place at Group level with them on and she hit the line as good as Maluckyday.
Descarado will be better suited out to 2000 metres while there has been some early money for Illustrious Blue, replays show that he is not so illustrious, not yet anyway. One to watch is the kiwi Keep The Peace. The fact that gun rider James McDonald has come across to ride is a significant move.
Race Six is the Group Two Phar Lap Stakes and it is where we find our ‘lay of the day”. Bullbars comes from Melbourne boasting a win and then a second in the Australian Guineas. Good form for this, but both runs have been off fast paced affairs at Flemington and he won’t get that here. Add to that he is going back in distance to 1500 metres and he is vulnerable.
Fast Clip is the horse to beat. The decision by Nash Rawiller to stick with him over stable-mate Halekulani is impossible to ignore. He should get to the lead and be extremely hard to run down.
Blackie is a horse on the up and his sectionals winning at Sandown were impressive. He is a big watch. Sworn To Secrecy also showed good acceleration in Canberra and is not to be taken lightly.
The two year olds go through their final preparation for the Golden Slipper and both fields are again small. The colts do battle in the Todman Stakes (Race 2) and Sepoy just wins. Peter Snowden has again been talking up this horse saying he runs better the clockwise way of running. This is again out of character for the master trainer but such is his high opinion of this brilliant juvenile.
Our traders suggest punters take Foxwedge to run second with Straight Gold to improve with the addition of blinkers and run third.
The fillies contest the Riesling Stakes (Race 3) and while Satin Shoes and Elite Falls are clearly the best two fillies in the race, our traders are wary of the price differential between the two. Elite Falls represents much better value.
Best chance of a knockout is Cape City Flyer. Her one win was over Streama, who was a conspicuous second in the Sweet Embrace stakes on Saturday.
Sportsbet Rosehill Early Betting Tips
While most of the interest is now in Sydney there is the Group Two Alister Clark Stakes (Race 6) at Moonee Valley on Friday night and a stock standard card at Caulfield on Saturday. The Alister Clark looks a definite race in two between Elusive King and Folding Gear. They ran one/two in the Autumn Classic after getting good runs just in behind the speed and our traders are confident that history will repeat here.
They are confident that they will beat anything else that ran in that race and have a slight leaning to Folding Gear as he is the horse with more room for improvement. Kim Divine will be better ridden cold but will still need some luck, while Shadowofexcellence is a horse with raw ability but might struggle to handle the ‘Valley’ at his first try.
Gilded Spur looms as the ‘roughie’ in the race. Glen Boss has stuck with him right throughout this preparation and from the wide barrier will go forward and give a good sight at the 2040 metres.
At Caulfield, Race 6 is a good betting race where our traders believe that De Fine Lago is the best each way bet of the day. He flew home at Moonee Valley behind The Big Steel and now that he is out to 1800 metres he will look to ‘steal’ the money back. Eraset is the favourite and is a dual acceptor, so if doesn’t run Friday night, is the main danger together with The Big Steel.
Paddy O’Reilly will have shrugged of St Patrick’s Day celebrations by Saturday and is a terrific chance at odds. He is drawn perfectly to bowl along out in front and lead the others on a merry ’riverdance’.
In the final race, Simply Put and Flying Tessie are vying for favouritism, however our traders are simply potting Simply Put and have hitched on to Flying Tessie. Simply Put is awkwardly drawn and up three kilos, while Flying Tessie is back from a second to Aloha at Group level.
Mont Fleuri is her main danger. She has a couple of duck eggs next to her name but she did win at this track and distance last prep and now third up is ready to produce. Counterpane has a habit of missing the start but will be finishing off well. The blinkers first time is important to note.
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