Sat, Jul 15, 11:48am by Senior Writer
Should Roger Federer complete his eighth Wimbledon victory with a win over Marin Cilic in Sunday’s men’s final as expected, it will mark a new high-water mark in his extraordinary career.
Federer has wound back the clock over the last fortnight, playing vintage grass court tennis to progress to the final without dropping a set. In the five matches he has completed he has only dropped service on four occasions, culminating in a 7-6 7-6 6-4 win over Tomas Berdych in Friday’s semi-final.
The Croatian has benefited from a kind draw and has not played a player inside the world top 16 to get this far after his quarter-final opponent Gilles Muller beat Rafael Nadal and Querrey took care of world No.1 Andy Murray.
That’s not to say he isn’t deserving of a spot in the final. The 28-year-old is of course a Grand Slam final winner, having won the 2014 US Open. In the semis of that tournament he beat Federer in straight sets.
That is his only victory over the Swiss maestro in seven attempts and Federer has since beaten him here on the Wimbledon grass in last year’s semi-final, albeit in five sets.
Cilic’s strength is his serve and he lost just 19% of service points against Querrey, dropping his serve just twice. In his near perfect performance in that 2014 US Open semi, he offered Federer just two break points for the entire match.
Given the strength of Federer’s serve as well, this is a match which will very likely feature tie-breakers. Federer has had five tie-breakers this tournament and won them all, while Cilic is four from five.
While the indication is that Federer, in this type of form, on grass, should prove too classy, the $1.18 is too short as is the $2 about a straight sets win, given the high probability that the sets will go the distance.
The market which is worth considering is the total games won on either player. For Cilic, the line is 17.5, while for Federer it is 20.5.
The over on Cilic at 17.5 is at $1.90 and is worth a punt, because even if he loses in three straight tie-breakers, then you collect. If it goes to four sets, then you are almost certain to get a collect given Cilic does not drop a lot of service games.
It’s a hard way to make an earn out of this match, but you have to get creative in such lopsided markets.
Suggested Bet: Cilic to win more than 17.5 games – $1.90
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